Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Even Without a Lockdown, Beijing’s Economy Struggled in May.
• Ruble Soars to 7-Year High Prompting Debate Over Targeting Rate.
• Ukraine Latest: War Knocks Almost Half of Economy Out of Action.
• Major Firms Ready to Lower Gas Use This Summer, Germany Says.    
• South Korea Inflation to Exceed May Forecast, Bank of Korea Says.
• BOE Must Hike Faster to Stop Inflationary Pound Drop, Mann Says.
  
• Empty Container Boxes Stuck at Rotterdam May Stoke Asia Shortage.
  
• Germany’s Biggest Union Pushes for 7% to 8% Raise in Wage Talks.
  
• More Than Half of Global Consumers Didn’t Save During Pandemic.  
• Stocks in Asia Set for Reprieve Amid Dip in Dollar: Markets Wrap.
• Biden Says Decision Nearing on Gas-Tax Pause, Student Debt.
  
• Yellen Says ‘Stay Tuned’ for Word on Russian Oil Price-Cap Plan.  
• Yellen Urges Less Dependence on Other Nations for Key Supplies.
• Distressed Crypto Lender Babel Wins Reprieve on Debt Repayments.
• Bitcoin’s Struggle to Hold $20,000 Keeps Crypto Market on Edge.  
• Larry Summers Says US Needs 5% Jobless Rate for Five Years to Ease Inflation.  
• US House Prices Are Likely to Drop as Rates Rise, Capital Economics Says.  
• Tesla Violated Federal Law by Laying Off Workers Without Warning, Lawsuit Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• GM and Ford, Driving to Beat Tesla, Turn on Each Other.
• EY’s Breakup Plan Means Windfalls for Partners.
• Undoing the Covid ‘Taxpayer Heist’. Scammers stole billions in pandemic aid. The GOP has a plan to crack down.
• Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until Fed Eases.
• Labor Crunch Hits Contractors as $1 Trillion Spending Kicks In.
• Small Businesses Fall Behind on Hiring as Inflation Takes a Toll.
• Thousands of Flights Canceled, Upending Holiday Travel.

Fox News: 

• Witness describes chaotic DC shooting that left 15-year-old boy dead.
• Biden ignites uproar for suggesting inflation hitting families is 'chance' to accomplish liberal agenda item.
• Ben Domenech: We are headed toward a number of years of significant economic downturn.
• Heavily armed police officers reportedly waited in Uvalde hallway for 58 minutes.
• Teen with no history of drug abuse killed by fentanyl: What everyone should know.
• POISONING OF AMERICA:Parents recall horrifying discovery as deadly crisis skyrockets across country.
• Top airline ending service to 3 major cities due to pilot shortage.

CNBC:

• ‘The situation is serious’: Germany plans to fire up coal plants as Russia throttles gas supplies.
• Look for more selling pressure in week ahead as investors learn the hard way not to fight the Fed.
• Crypto lending firm Celsius asks users for more time to fix issues after halting withdrawals.
• A crypto lending app tried to take over a ‘whale’ account to stop it from collapsing the system.
• ProShares is launching a short bitcoin ETF this week. 

Zero Hedge:

• Did Europe's Latest (& Little Noticed) Anti-Russia Move Just Push The World Closer To WW3?
• Commercial Real Estate Is On The Brink.
• Facebook Removes Greitens "RINO Hunter" Campaign Ad.
• Russia Demands Lithuania Lift "Openly Hostile" Blockade; Panic Buying Ensues.
• "We Now See The Fed Moving Toward An Attempted Controlled Unwind Position".
• Study CDC Cited In Arguing For COVID-19 Vaccines For Babies Being Updated.
• Random holiday observations.
• US stock index futures gained steadily in thinned trade on the Juneteenth holiday - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• China, US Escalate Over Legal Status Of Taiwan Strait After Beijing Rejects It As "International Waters".
• It's Official: Nomura Is First Bank To Call For 2022 Recession.
• The Perfect Storm In Oil Caught Markets Off Guard.
• Is America The Only Country In The World That Authorizes COVID Shots For Infants?
• COVID Exposed The Medical-Pharmaceutical-Government Complex.
• 10,000 Flights Delayed Over Holiday Weekend As Aviation Chaos Concerns White House.
• "Economic Hurricane" – Hyperbole Or Real Possibility?
• A Look At The Last Five US Recessions.
• Fauci Refuses To 'Stop Funding Chinese' Research With US Tax Dollars.
• European Stocks, US Futures, Cryptos All Rise With US Out On Holiday.
• Swimming's World Governing Body Slaps Total Ban On Transgender Athletes.
• Germany Rations Gas Amid Russian Cuts, Mandates Return To Coal For Electricity Production.
• Chinese State-Backed Hackers Targeting Major Telecom Companies: US Security Agencies.
• Ukraine War Hits Grim Milestone As Civilian Deaths Surpass 10,000: UN.
• A softer APAC tone amid a US holiday & ahead of multiple speakers - Newsquawk Euro Market Open.
• Republican Negotiator For Red Flag Laws Booed By Texas Crowd At GOP Convention.
• Life Insurance Payouts Jumped 163% During First Year Of Vaccine Rollout.
• Ukraine Says "Prepare For The Worst" In Donbas; Kharkiv Will Likely Be Next "Frontline City".
• Goldman Trader: You Make Your Big Money When Central Banks Make A Policy Error... Like Now.
• "Fight Like Hell With A Smile On Our Faces": CRT Debate Spurs Parents To Run For School Boards.
• China And Japan Cut US Treasury Holdings As Federal Reserve Hikes Rates.
• In "Stunning Blow", Macron Loses Absolute Majority As Far Right, Left Surge.
• Inflation Is Everywhere: The Infamous Warren Buffett Charity Lunch Sold For More Than Four Times Last Year's Price.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsqauwk.
• Videos Of Americans Captured In Ukraine Broadcast On Russian TV - US Reviewing Footage.
• Transportation Secretary Warns US May Act Against Airlines Over Cancellations.
• Russia Attacks US-Backed Fighters In Syria At American Outpost.
• Efficacy Estimates For Pfizer’s Vaccine For Young Children Come Under Scrutiny.
• Sorry Chair Powell, Even FRBNY Is Now Forecasting Serious & Accelerating Recession Risk.

MarketWatch.com:            

• Trillion-dollar crypto collapse sparks flurry of U.S. lawsuits – who’s to blame?  
• El Salvador’s bitcoin-backing president asks for patience as crypto sinks.
  
• Celsius abruptly cancels AMA session as company navigates ‘very difficult challenges’.   
• Opinion: Gas prices are headed to $6 by Labor Day – here are the main reasons why.  
• Germany to restart coal plants.  
• Stocks are still too expensive, and rising rates may shock financial system, Seth Klarman warns.  
• ‘It’s a perfect storm for women’: Tampon shortage adds to women’s supply-chain woes.

NewsMax:    

• FINA Votes to Restrict Transgenders in Women's Swimming. 
• Chief Justice Roberts Could Lead High Court to Compromise on Abortion.  
• Rep. Mullin: Oklahoma, Texas Could Solve Nation's Energy Crisis.
• Dr. McCullough: FDA Erred in Approving Toddler Vax.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Run on the Banks in China – Long Lines in Henan, Shanghai, and Dandong.
• Bidenflation Is Making Car Payments And Purchases More Expensive Then Ever Before.
• “I Felt Election Was RIGGED and ‘STOLLEN’, Have from the Very Beginning, and Have Only Gotten Stronger in that Belief” – President Trump Totally Destroys ‘Unselect Committee’. 
• Data from National Statistics in England Reveals Almost 530,000 Vaccinated Have Died Including Non-COVID Deaths Between January 2021 and March 2022.
• Bidenomics: East Coast Truckers Are Stalled Out on the Highway Waiting for Gas – The Gas Stations Are Out of Diesel (VIDEO).
• Experts and Republicans Call Out The CDC For Approving The COVID Jab For America’s Youngest Children, Citing A Lack Of ‘Efficacy Data’.
• Uvalde Police Went 77 Minutes Without Trying To Open The Door Where A Shooter Killed 19 Children and 2 Adults.
• Woke Disney’s New Movie “Lightyear” Flops
• The IRS Is Buying Up Ammo, While The Government Intends To Make It Harder For Citizens To Acquire.
• HUGE: Court Rules for the First Time That an Insured Business Can Seek Damages Over COVID-19 Shutdown Losses.
• Former Obama Economic Advisor and Treasury Secretary Warns That ‘a Recession is Ahead’ (VIDEO).
• Whopping 72 Percent Majority of Republicans Believe That the US Has ‘Poor Moral Values’
• “Teetering On The Edge” — Diesel Prices Leading To Food Shortages?
• Minnesota Senate Ethics Committee Unanimously Votes to Investigate Democrat on Voter Fraud Allegations.
• Transgender Org Releases New Guidelines, Lowers Recommended Age For Starting Children on Gender-Change Hormones and Mutilating Their Breasts.
• CONFIRMED: Pfizer’s COVID Vaccine Reduces Sperm Count in Men, Another Adverse Affect Of The Forced Vaccine Tyranny.

The Epoch Times:

• Fauci Won’t Commit to ‘Stop Funding Chinese’ Research With US Tax Dollars.
• US Sanctions on Russia, Anti-Oil Policy Give Competitive Edge to China: Economist.
• Florida ‘Puts Data Over Ideology’ in Opposing COVID-19 Vaccines for Young Children: State’s Surgeon General.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 831,800 Reports(+2,492 from prior week) Through June 10th, 2022.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 131.25 -2.0 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 82.25 -3.75 basis points.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.61 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,705.0 +76.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.2 -2.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
• S&P 500 futures +1.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (LEN)/3.97
  

After the Close:

• (LZB)/.92
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May.

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to fall to 5.4M versus 5.61M in Apil.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (FTNT) 5-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Bullard speaking, BoJ Meeting Minutes, German PPI report, weekly US retail sales reports, Jefferies Consumer Conference, (LOW) fireside chat w/Oppenheimer, (JWN) fireside chat w/Telsey Advisory and the BofA Tech/Media/Communications Conference could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US Rejects China’s Claims Over Taiwan Strait as Concerns Grow.
• Libya’s Rival PM Sees Politics Hindering Oil Production All Year.  
• UK Braces for Travel Chaos From Biggest Rail Strike in Decades.  
• Bank of Japan Should Stick to Easing Policy, PM Kishida Says.  
• Saudi Arabian Stocks Tumble as Oil, Rates Roil Mideast Equities.
  
• Ukraine Latest: Russia Reports Missile Strikes; Harvest Warning.
• Fed’s Inflation Battle to Strip Workers of Rare Bargaining Power.
  
• Opinion: Housing’s Slowdown Has Economy on the Edge.
• Crypto Market Starting to See Even Old-Timers ‘Panic Selling’.
• Hedge Funds Are the Rage as ‘Nothing Seems to Be Working’: Q&A.
• Nearly All of Wall Street – and the Fed – Botched Calls for 2022.  
• Yellen Says Elevated US Inflation Locked In for the Rest of 2022.   
• Granholm Sees ‘Tough Summer’ for US Drivers as Fuel Demand Rises.  
• Bitcoin Bounces After Rout But Vibe Is Still ‘Strongly Negative’.  
• Shoppers Are Facing Shortages of Beer to Popcorn This Summer.  
• Waller Backs 75 Basis-Point July Hike, Says Fed Is ‘All In’.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Costly Contradictions of Biden’s Crusade for Green Energy. The assault on fossil fuels distorts or undermines many other domestic and international priorities.
• Biden’s Patent Gift to Beijing. A WTO Covid vaccine deal undermines U.S. intellectual property.
• Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens.
• Democrats Expect Joe Biden to Run in 2024. They’re Less Sure if He Should.
• Mining Firms’ Cautious Spending Threatens Shift to Green Energy.
• Germany Ramps Up Measures to Conserve Gas as Russia Slows Supply.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (HAS), (FDX), (CHRW), (ABMD), (ORCL), (AB), (IVZ), (TROW), (BLK), (BEN) and (C).
• Had bearish commentary on (NFLX), (BA), (DIS), (ETSY) and (GSK).

Fox News:

• Transportation secretary lashes out at airlines after his own trip was canceled, says govt can take action.
• US number of cancelled flights rising as summer begins to heat up.
• VA Lt Gov rips Dems 'indoctrination' in schools after youth abortion protests.

CNBC:

• Pandemic-era checks rewired how some see money: ‘Stimulus changed how I think about what’s possible’.
• Apple workers in Maryland vote for company’s first unionized store in U.S.
• Businesses are preparing for a crypto winter—here’s what that means for you.
• Bitcoin briefly dropped below $17,800 as sell-off accelerates — here’s what happened.
• U.S. recession isn’t inevitable, but inflation is ‘unacceptably high,’ Treasury Secretary Yellen says.
• Inflation and recession fears are squeezing some industries more than others.
• Top Wall Street analysts say these are the best stocks to beat the volatile market.

Zero Hedge:

• Western Populations Must Do More For Ukraine Even If "Costs Of Food & Fuel Are High": NATO Chief.
• Why Are Twitter Employees So Afraid Of Free Speech? It's About Market Saturation.
• Energy Transition Goals At Risk As EU May Label Lithium As Toxic.
• Flight or Fight?
• Despite Crashing Stocks And Cryptos, Retail Investors Just Won't Stop Buying All The Dips.
• If The Streets Of America Are This Chaotic Now, What Will They Be Like When Things Really Start Hitting The Fan?
• The Biden Administration's Ignorant Energy Policies: Higher Gas Prices Are Only The Beginning. 
• UN Food Chief Says 'Hell On Earth' Looms From Hunger Crisis Triggered By Ukraine War.
• A Triple-Barreled Gun Is Destroying African Economies: Inflation, Government Debt, & Taxes.
• Cascading Liquidations Send Bitcoin Below $18,000 As Daisy-Chained Margin Call Contagion Sparks Record Selling.
• Anti-Satellite Weapons: Threatening The Future Of Space Activities.
• Shellenberger: Why Biden's Attacks On Energy Are "Absolutely Insane".
• The Atlantic Gives Up On Biden.
• Reimagining The World Economic Forum.
• YouTube Removes Jan. 6 Panel Video Of Trump Claiming Election Fraud.
• House Democrats Propose 1,000% Tax On AR-15s.
• Our Economy In A Nutshell.
• US Rent Costs Surge To Record Highs As Americans Expect Inflation To Get Worse.
• Leaked Audio: Americans' Private TikTok Data Accessed From China.
• Housing Crash Imminent: As Mortgage Rates Explode Price Cuts Soar And Buyer Demand Collapses.
• Biden Signals To Own Officials & Zelensky: Dial Back The "Winning" Rhetoric As Russian Gains Now Evident.
• JPM Head Of Trading: Fed Willing To Crash Stocks To Hammer Inflation, But Repulican Win Sets Us Up For Year-End Rally.
• "Let's Go Bran-Dow" - Industrial Stocks Slump To Worst Streak Ever.
• Wall Street's Biggest Bear: "At SPX 3600 Nibble, At 3300 Bite, At 3000 Gorge".
• New Fossil Fuel Fan: Obama Orders 2,500-Gallon Propane Storage For Vacation Home.
• 'Red Wave' Becoming More Likely In Eyes Of Political Forecasters.
• Here's 18 Signs That The Economic Meltdown We've Been Waiting For Has Already Begun.
• Largest SPX weekly loss (-5.8%) since Mar'20 but shorts cover post-QuadWitching - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Kemp: White House Tries To Blame US Refiners For Its Own Overheating Error.

MarketWatch.com:        

• Bitcoin slumps below $20,000 as cryptocurrency rout rolls on.
• Bitcoin’s nosedive through the $20,000 mark is a Minsky Moment for crypto: ‘Psychologically for a lot of people, this is galling’.
  
• Weekend reads: Your guide to bear markets for stocks, crypto and, soon, housing.
  
• Wall Street is officially in a bear market: What strategists say investors should do.  
• Why stock-market investors are ‘nervous’ that an earnings recession may be looming.  
• Millions more homebuyers may be priced out of housing market, as 30-year mortgage rate spikes after Fed’s biggest rate hike since 1994.

NewsMax:  

• NATO Chief: Morale Low on Both Sides; War May Last 'Years'.  
• Dershowitz: Expect 'Summer of Violence,' Abuses of Law, Power.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• President Trump Reacts to Biden Bike Blunder with Hilarious Response (VIDEO). 
• Uvalde Police Went 77 Minutes Without Trying To Open The Door Where A Shooter Killed 19 Children and 2 Adults.
• Woke Disney’s New Movie “Lightyear” Flops. 
• Americans Either Stand Up Now Or Forget About Free and Fair Elections for Generations.
• Hey, Bill Barr!… Kentucky Supreme Court Rules on Cellphone Geo-Tracking Case — Proving Premise Behind “2000 Mules” Is VALID and Very Much in Use Today.
• Another TikTok Star Gia Pastion Dead at 19.
• So Sad: ‘Detransitioned’ Teens Reveal How They Feel After ‘Changing Genders’ And Losing Organs.
• After Years of Denials, A Report Indicates that the Head of the WHO Quietly Believes COVID19 Came from Lab in Wuhan, China.
• Male Blood Donor Turned Away Because HE Refused To Answer If HE Was Pregnant, A Signal Of The Insanity Of Modern Gender Ideology.
• Hillary Clinton Calls Trump Supporters a “Clear and Present Danger to American Democracy”.
• GOP Senator John Cornyn Viciously Booed at Republican Party of Texas Convention After Folding to Democrats on Gun Control (VIDEO).
• As Inflation Skyrockets and Markets Collapse Fed Chair Jerome Powell Says Fed is Examining US Central Bank Digital Currency.
• NYC Mayor Eric Adams Endorses Child Grooming: ‘Drag Storytellers And The Libraries And Schools That Support Them’ Are ‘Core To What Our City Embraces’.
• JUST IN: 17 MI GOP Lawmakers Call On Partisan Hack AG Nessel To Investigate Evidence of Fraud From 2000 Mules Movie.
• Florida’s DeSantis Boldly Bumps Heads With Washington After Refusing To Order COVID Vaccines For Kids Under Five, Keeping Floridas Kids Safe.
• Joe Biden Says He is Unpopular Because Americans Are Mentally Unwell.

The Epoch Times:

• Fauci Refuses to ‘Stop Funding Chinese’ Research With US Tax Dollars.
• American Business Elites Have Become Lobbyists for China, Expert Says. 
• Elon Musk Calls Out TikTok Over ‘Civilization’ Risk.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 831,800 Reports(+2,492 from prior week) Through June 10th, 2022. 

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).