Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -4.6% 2) Energy -4.1% 3) Shipping -3.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WLK, BLD, P;XD, SBOW, GPOR, OLN, WCC, GMS, KRP, GNRC, OAS, WLL, DOW, COP, BECN, LBRT, MUR, MNTK, VNOM, WFRD, WHD, COIN, LZ, IBP, ORA, FCX, NOG, MO, PDCE and ROCC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DBC 2) XLB 3) MO 4) DLR 5) REV
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ATHA 2) MRO 3) SBLK 4) GNRC 5) MO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +1.6% 2) Pharma +1.6% 3) Medical Equipment +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LZB, NVCR, AORT, PTCT, SYM, BMRN, DVA, INFA, VNDA, CLDX, CHEF, WGO and OM
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLAR 2) XXII 3) PPL 4) XELA 5) REV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) REV 2) LZB 3) LLL 4) DTIL 5) BMRN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 55.6% of Issues Advancing, 40.8% Declining
• 2 New 52-Week Highs, 194 New Lows
• 15.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,623.0 -315.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,182.0 +.87%
  
• Vix 29.8 -1.3%
• Total Put/Call .99 +12.5%
• TRIN/Arms .87 +38.7%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.75 -3.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.25 +3.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.74 -.04%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,971.0 +26.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 30.15 -.73%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.09%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (KFY)/1.55
• (PDCO)/.56
• (WGO)/2.96

After the Close:

• (FUL)/1.07
• (KBH)/2.03
• (SCS)/-.18
• (WOR)/.83
  

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (FTNT) 5-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to Senate, Fed's Bullard speaking, UK PPI report, 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, JPMorgan Energy/Power/Renewables Conference and the (ZS) investor briefing could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Sharply Higher into Final Hour on Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 29.5 -4.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.45% -15.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,964.0 +333.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.96 +1.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.2 -3.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.7 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -70.0%

• NYSE Arms .69 -31.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.14 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 440.93 -1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 386.0 -2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.02 -1.7%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.84 -3.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 319.65 -2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.09 -.21%
  
• Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 7,570.90 -5.7%
  

• 2-Year Swap Spread 40.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 60.25 basis points +4.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -1.5 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.30 -.24%
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.76 +.35%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.52% -4.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve 10.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -68.3 -2.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.2 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.62 +3.0 basis points
  
• 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at September 21st FOMC meeting, 0.0%(unch.) chance of no change at November 2nd meeting

US Covid-19:

• 194 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 11.0%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14 peak -13/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.1%(-.6 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +244 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -77 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my index hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 82.0% of Issues Advancing, 14.9% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 70 New Lows
• 15.0% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,930.0 +300.0 points
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,175.0 +.97%
  
• Vix 30.1 -3.1%
• Total Put/Call .81 -72.1%
• TRIN/Arms .52 -48.5%