Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 32.6% of Issues Advancing, 64.2% Declining
• 34 New 52-Week Highs, 73 New Lows
• 35.2%(-3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 46.5 -.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,656.0 -.25%
  
• Vix 26.3 +1.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +13.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 +39.5% 

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                   

• Saudi Arabia, US Share Intel on Possible Iran Attack.  
• Korean Inflation Picks Up, Boosting Case for More Tightening.
• Inflation in UK Shops Rises to Highest Level on Record.  
• Brazil Protests Hamper Shipments of Food, Fuel, Fertilizer.
• Caution Clouds Global Assets Ahead of Fed Meeting: Markets Wrap.
• Your Savings Account Rate Is Now Higher Than Millions of Mortgages.
  
• Fed’s Employment Mandate Takes a Back Seat in Inflation Fight.
• Inflation, Crime and More Will Decide If Democrats Lose Congress.  
• A Risky Trading Strategy Is Growing in Popularity in 2022's Wild Market.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Oil Is Fueling American Cars Via Sanctions Loophole.
• Musk Aims to Boost Twitter Revenue With Subscriptions.
• Bolsonaro Vows to Respect Constitution After Loss.
• Pennsylvania Supreme Court Orders Election Officials to Disallow Ballots with Missing or Incorrect Dates.
• New WSJ Poll Finds GOP Prospects Rising.
• Now They Want a Pandemic ‘Amnesty’. The school shutdown lobby now want voters to forgive them. Not so fast.
• AMD Forecasts Deepening Slump in PC Sales as Consumer Demand Slows.

Fox News:

• One candidate has an edge in critical Wisconsin Senate race.

CNBC.com:

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Airbnb, Advanced Micro Devices, Match Group and more.
• The Fed is expected to raise rates by three-quarters of a point and signal it could slow the pace.
• AMD misses but still ekes out 29% revenue growth.
• Ad giant IPG advises brands to pause Twitter spending after Musk takeover.
• Job openings surged in September despite Fed efforts to cool labor market.
• Airbnb beats on top and bottom lines, but stock drops nearly 10% on guidance.
  

MarketWatch:         

• 20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession. 
  
• Amazon closes below $1 trillion valuation for the first time since 2020.

Zero Hedge:

• "You Murderous Hypocrites": Outrage Ensues After The Atlantic Suggests 'Amnesty' For Pandemic Authoritarians.
• Musk Calls 'Lords & Peasants' Blue Check System 'Bullshit' - Will Charge $8 Per Month.
• Jack Dorsey Retains Stake In Twitter, Saving Elon Musk $1 Billion.
• The Rise (Or Fall?) Of Vegetarianism.
• Greta Thunberg Calls For "Overthrow Of Whole Capitalist System".
• US Will No Longer "Waste Its Time" On Iran Nuclear Deal Talks.
• "Possibility Of Additional Outbreaks:" Bird Flu Strikes Iowa Egg Farm With Million Hens.
• Supreme Court Leaves TSA Mask Mandate Ruling In Place.
• Israel Election: Exit Polls Show Netanyahu On Brink Of Returning To Power.
• Wall Street Gives Up On Corporate Profit Outlooks.
• Toyota Abandons "Smart Keys" In Japan Due To Continuing Semiconductor Shortage.
• US stocks declined as strong jolts data spurred hawkish Fed terminal rate pricing - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Tucker Carlson Explains Why Democrats Must Rely On Censorship To Maintain Political Viability.
• Up To 14 Injured In Chicago Mass Shooting, Youngest Victim Just 3 Years Old: Police.
• 6 Facts That Gov. Pritzker Doesn't Want You To Know About Illinois' 2022 Report Card.
• WTI Holds Gains After Big Unexpected Crude Draw.
• Fed terminal rate pricing rises after JOLTS bounce ahead of FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & Stocks Battered As 'Good' JOLTS Print Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: David DePape Pleads Not Guilty to All Charges in Paul Pelosi Incident – In First Court Appearance He Is Not Shackled, His Arm Is in a Sling – UPDATED.
• BREAKING: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro Refuses to Concede in Suspicious Election – Supporters CHEER in the Street!
• Youtube Announces to Actively Censor and Remove Any Dissenting Content About the Election Result Including Voter Fraud Claims in Brazil.
• Fully Vaccinated and Boosted Food Writer Julie Powell, Author of ‘Julie & Julia,’ Dead From Cardiac Arrest at 49.
• 81 Million Votes! Joe Biden Can’t Fill Up Small College Gym at Florida Rally with Crist and Val Demings – VIDEO.
• EVIL STRIKES BACK: 22 Times More Attacks On Pro-Lifers Than On Pro-Abortion Groups Since Dobbs Leak.
• Project Veritas: NYPD Whistleblower: NYC Mayor Adams Ignores State Supreme Court’s Order to Reinstate Unvaccinated Officers.
• DYSTOPIA: Shanghai’s Disney Resort Locks All Visitors Inside After One COVID Case.
• Illegal Migrants Storm US Border with Giant Venezuelan Flag, Hurl Rocks at Border Agents – Are Forced Back into Mexico.
• Florida Democrat Charlie Crist Says He Would Impose Statewide Mask Mandate if “Scientists” Tell Him to (VIDEO).
  

The Epoch Times:

• Communist China’s Sprawling Plan to Infiltrate American College Campuses.
• China Seeks to Influence 2022 Midterm Elections: Cybersecurity Chief.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 887,564 Reports(+3,505 from prior week) Through October 21st, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 225.75 -7.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 119.0 -7.75 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 -.09%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 46.8 +.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.03 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.1 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.2%.

• S&P 500 futures +.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACIW)/.22
• (ATI)/.53
• (EAT)/-.61
• (CHRW)/2.17
• (GOOS)/.06
• (CVS)/1.99
• (DISH)/.58
• (EL)/1.31
• (FDP)/.10
• (GNRC)/1.64
• (HUM)/6.27
• (JLL)/4.48
• (ODP)/1.72
• (ROK)/2.98
• (SMG)/-1.99
• (TUP)/.42
• (UAA)/.16
• (VSH)/.84
• (VMC)/1.71
• (YUM)/1.15
• (ZBH)/1.56
  

After the Close:

• (ALB)/6.99
• (ALL)/-1.59
• (APA)/1.78
• (BKNG)/49.85
• (CF)/3.32
• (CTSH)/1.16
• (EBAY)/.93
• (FTNT)/.27
• (TWNK)/.21
• (IR)/.59
• (IRBT)/1.25
• (MRO)/1.18
• (MET)/1.17
• (MGM)?.13
• (QCOM)/3.14
• (RCII)/.89
• (RGR)/1.14
• (RIG)/-.17
• (RGLD)/.72
• (WERN)/.97
• (YELL)/.35
• (ZG)/.11
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Oct. is estimated at 180K versus 208K in Sept.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil  inventory decline of -550,000 barrels versus a +2,588,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,200,000 barrels versus a -1,478,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -500,000 barrels versus a +170,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a -.6% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST:

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds Rate +75.0 bps to 3.75%-4.0%.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report,  could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Overbought Technical Condition, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.7 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.50%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.5 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.21 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 51.6 -.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -25.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%

• NYSE Arms .72 -35.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 88.51 -1.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.28 -1.64%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 471.0 +14.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 120.26 -2.5% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 330.4 -.27%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 213.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 229.7 -.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 285.17 -3.75%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.80 -1.08%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 37.5 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 34.75 basis points -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -54.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  169.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 133.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.10 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.60 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.07% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve -49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 78.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 116.6 euros/megawatt-hour -5.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.4 +4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +9.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.4 -2.8 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.99 -.31:  Growth Rate +12.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 16.6 -.1 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.06 -2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.60% -47.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.16% unch.: CPI YoY +8.09% -2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.51 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 50.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 47.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 77 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.4%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -84.7%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -96 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -1.4% 2) Cyber Security -1.3% 3) Pharma -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACGL, TAP, TRI, SYK, LKQ, DVA, LLY, BEN, AMZN, KMT, NUVL, TREX, INTU, BLD, ECL, HLIT, BCRX, GT, ZBRA and CTLT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) AVYA 3) RITM 4) GT 5) HBAN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRNS 2) CTLT 3) GT 4) CAR 5) AVA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.8% 2) Gambling +2.4% 3) Disk Drives +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ABMD, UBER, CVNA, LSCC, HRMY, HOLX, BCOR, IT, NBIX, INCY, RMBS, EHAB, META, ANET, BSM, TECH and CORT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SIRI 2) AVYA 3) GT 4) RITM 5) HBAN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RGS 2) LSCC 3) ABMD 4) ICPT 5) SOFI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 58.7% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
• 65 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
• 36.5%(+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 46.0 +1.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,733.8 -.90%
  
• Vix 25.9 +.1%
• Total Put/Call .96 +5.5%
• TRIN/Arms .76 -31.5%