Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives -3.6% 2) Computer Hardware -3.0% 3) Banks -2.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COLB, COHR, BGS, AVID, DISH, LAC, ACMR, OZK, TDC, ON, STM, ACLS, VCTR, HRL, HAYW, CPNG, ACLS, PTLO, CODI, GMS, ARGX, SBNY, PFG, AMRC, PLUG, XENE, SYM, RETA, WOLF, HIMS, AAN, MP, ZLAB, RVMD, SNOW, BOX, AEHR and PSTG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FHN 2) STWD 3) ERX 4) CRM 5) LQD
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SI 2) SNOW 3) MP 4) CANO 5) COIN
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Outperformers:

• Restaurants +.9% 2) Oil Service +.8% 3) Road & Rail +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SFM, CERT, CRM, SBOW, M, UTZ, OKTA, NTLA, AGL, FTDR, BRKR, TWLO, DUOL, CELH, PETQ, VEEV, BIG, WES, SIX, RADI, TTWO, ARRY, OMI and NRDS
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AEHR 2) CRM 3) PSTG 4) TGI 5) BBY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NTLA 2) CRM 3) STGW 4) M 5) CERT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (HIBB)/2.96

After the Close:

• None of Note
  

Economic Releases 

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Composite PMI revsions.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 55.2 in Jan.
• ISM Services Prices Paid Index for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Logan speaking and the German Trade Balance report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.3 +4.4
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 35.7% of Issues Advancing, 61.7% Declining
• 40 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 52.4%(-1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.9 +1.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,803.4 -.30%
  
• Vix 20.4 -.9%
• Total Put/Call 1.1 -5.3%
• TRIN/Arms .77 -14.4%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.25 -2.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 67.75 -3.25 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 125.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.47%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  64.2 +.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 -5.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.3 +1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.

• S&P 500 futures -.41%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.56%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Earnings Outlook Worries, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .75%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.9 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 151.05 +.74%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.7%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.0 +1.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +4.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.21 +21.0%

• NYSE Arms .96 -21.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.8 -.5%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 351.7 -2.0%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 324.0 +30
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.1 -.28% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 398.3 -1.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 185.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 237.5 -1.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27. +.06%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 34.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 13.25 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  154.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 532.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.6%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.84% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.6 -1.0 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.4 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.1 +6.7 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.13 +.33:  Growth Rate +1.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.6 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .24 +5.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -89.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% -53.0 basis  points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 66.3%(-6.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 58.5%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -61 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +8 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long