Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -.5% 2) Education -.4% 3) Disk Drives -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• COST, BRP, PSO, ATRO, JBGS, MRVL, RYTM, BMBL, ZS and EGLE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALLY 2) ESPR 3) ZATI 4) COST 5) AVGO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VERU 2) EGLE 3) ZS 4) ITRI 5) COST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Alt Energy +2.9% 2) Internet +2.5% 3) AI/Robotics +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, LPSN, IOT, XPOF, LAZR, BPMC, RVMD, ESTC, IAS, SYM, SOI, COO, OKTA, TPIC, TRIN, ECVT, VMW, VEEV, MCS, FSLR, DO and SNOW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ARDX 2) CLNE 3) DKS 4) CTIC 5) COST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AI 2) ARDX 3) IOT 4) VERI 5) XPOF
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CIEN)/.36
• (RIDE)/-.24
  

After the Close:

• (AVAV)/.43
• (GRPN)/-.36
• (NTNX)/.11
  

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Jan. is estimated to fall -1.7% versus a +1.8% gain in Dec.
• Durable Goods report revisions for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (PCAR) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Retail Sales report, Cowen Healthcare Conference, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, (UBER) fireside chat with Morgan Stanley, (MRK) Cardio Investor Event and the JMP securities Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 +.9
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 69.8% of Issues Advancing, 27.2% Declining
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 54.5%(+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.0 +9.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.9 +2.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,932.1 +.46%
  
• Vix 18.9 -3.3%
• Total Put/Call .74 -30.8%
• TRIN/Arms .89 +20.3%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• Yesterday’s QE Saddles Today’s Governments With Soaring Debt Costs.
• ECB’s Wunsch Sees 4% Rates Possible If Inflation Stays Strong.
• National Australia Bank CEO Says Three More RBA Hikes Possible.
• China Retail Investing Remained Lackluster Amid Reopening Rally.
• Adani Bonds Flash Warnings Even as $153 Billion Stock Rout Eases.  
• Asia Stocks Advance After Wall Street Reversal: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Racks Up Weekly Gain as Investors Warm to China’s Recovery.
• Americans Need to Be Richer Than Ever to Buy Their First Home.
  
• US Home Prices Fall From Year Ago in First Since 2012, Redfin Says.
  
• Sky-High Car Prices Have Only One Direction to Go From Here.
• Fed’s Bostic Open to Seeking Higher Rate Peak If Data Stays Hot.
  
• Zoom Abruptly Fires President Greg Tomb ‘Without Cause’.  
• Fed Speech Scrapped After Participant Shows Porn in Zoom Room.

Wall Street Journal:

• Big Retailers’ Sales Declines Reflect Shopper Pullback.
• Crypto Firms Ditch Silvergate, a Favorite Bank Partner.
• Putin’s Secret Weapon on Energy: an Ex-Morgan Stanley Banker.
• The U.S. Must Defeat Mexico’s Drug Cartels. The narco-terrorists are more like ISIS than the American mafia.
• The Next Fountain-of-Youth Craze? Peptide Injections.
• USAA Tells Staff, Your Remote Job Is No Longer Remote.
• U.S. Targets Chinese Entities With Alleged Ties to Iranian Military.
• Tennessee Governor Signs Bill Restricting Transgender Healthcare for Minors.

Fox News:

• AOC faces ethics probe over 'substantial' suspicion of Met Gala violations.

CNBC.com:

• Activist hedge fund manager Dan Loeb takes a passive stake in AMD.
• Mortgage rates jump back over 7% as inflation fears drive yields higher.

MarketWatch:                   

• Inflation data pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4%. How much higher can interest rates go?  
• ‘Inflation is not coming down as fast as I thought’: Fed’s Waller open to stiffer rate hikes.
  
• The secret to stocks’ success so far in 2023? An unexpected $1 trillion liquidity boost from central banks.  
• Colon-cancer rates are increasing among people in their 40s — and younger.  
• Nordstrom’s off-price Rack stores are struggling. It’s opening more of them anyway.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: Stammering AG Merrick Garland Destroyed In Congressional Grilling.
• NBC Reporter Goes To Crimea, Shocks Viewers By Telling The Truth.
• Childhood Obesity: What You’re Not Hearing In The News.
• Suspected Poison Gas Attacks On Iranian Girls' Schools Have Made Hundreds Sick.
• Surge In Mortgage Rates Above 7% Sends Homebuyer Applications To 28 Year New York City Agrees To Pay Hundreds Of Black Lives Matter Demonstrators For Arrest Tactics.
• "Comply Promptly": House Judiciary, Intel Committees Send Demand Letters To Officials Who Discredited Hunter Biden Story.
• Schools Are Pushing Gender Pronouns And Hiding It from Parents.
• Argentina's Power Restored After Blackout Plunged Half Of Country Into Darkness.
• Rep. Comer Says He's Delaying Hunter Biden Subpoena To Ensure Win If It Goes To Court.
• US stocks rebounded after Fed's Bostic suggested a pause by mid-to-late summer - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Major Winter Storm To Spread Snow From Midwest To Northeast.
• Five Lessons From Three Years Of Authoritarianism.
• "A Total Crock...Un-American" - Taibbi Exposes Censorious Arm Of State-Sponsored Blacklisting.
• Panic to not panic is huge
• Biden's "Great Economic Recovery" Narrative Is Built On Deception.
• Dovish Bostic reverses earlier stock losses but bonds unmoved - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bostic Batters Stock Bears But Bond Yields Soar After Record Inflation.

Newsmax:     

• Rep. Steube: Deliberate COVID Leak Wouldn't Surprise Me.
• Sen. Johnson: Senate Call to Release COVID Intel Positive.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• UPDATE: Biden Regime Confirms Commitment To “Legally-Binding” Agreement Which Will Surrender U.S. Pandemic Authority To Chinese-Backed World Health Organization “For Generations To Come”.
• RINOs and Democrats Running as Republicans Are Called Out in Jackson County, Missouri.
• “The Lost Boys Became Girls Now?” – Woke Disney Ripped After They Add Girls To Peter Pan’s “Lost Boys”.
• JUST IN: Twitter Files #17 Drops – The State Sponsored Blacklists.
• WATCH: Renowned Harvard Professor Of Medicine Trolls Woke “Vaccine Fanatics” During House Roundtable On COVID Policies.
• John Kerry Condemns Fossil Fuels That “Heat Our Homes” and “Propel Our Vehicles” (VIDEO).
• “Insanity” — New York City To Pay $21,500 to 320 Far-Left Protesters Over 2020 Protests and Riots that Cost the City Millions.
• FL Man Dies From Rare Brain-Eating Infection After Rinsing Nose With Tap Water.
• WOW: Rasmussen Poll Results Show Over 60% of Likely Voters Believe Undercover Government Agents Provoked Jan 6 Riots. 
  

The Epoch Times:

• Push for Green Energy Increases US Reliance on China, Benefiting Regime: Cybersecurity Exper 
• CCP ‘Serious’ About Breaking US Encryption With Quantum Tech: Expert.

Twitter: 

• @USBurning - Glenn Beck: Biden AI deepfake powerful enough to 'change elections'. 
• @disclosetv - NEW - 10 myths told by "Covid experts" — now debunked.
• @LawrenceSellin - #China-trained and #Fauci-funded Pei-yong Shi of the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston has worked with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China's People's Liberation Army and Pfizer. He has patents with the People's Liberation Army payed for by #USA taxpayers #COVID19.
• @The_Real_Fly - EUROZONE CENTRAL BANKS ARE BLEEDING LOSSES DUE TO BOND PURCHASES.
• @VigilantFox - Two Leading Virologists Appear to Have Been Bought off to Shut Up About Lab Leak Theory. (video)
• @jsolomonReports - Dominion sues Fox News for $1.6B for reporting voting machine allegations, gives HBO a pass. A 2020 HBO documentary highlighted allegations that Dominion voting equipment is vulnerable to hacking.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 938,175 Reports(+1,692 from prior week) Through February 17th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.5 +.25 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -.25 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 126.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  66.6 +1.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .20 -8.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.4 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.54%.

• S&P 500 futures -.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Dovish Fedspeak, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.3 -1.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .53%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 64.8 +1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 150.90 -.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 +.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.6 +2.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -5.3%

• NYSE Arms .76 -15.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.2 +.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.90 -.36%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329.0 +5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.16 +1.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 397.1 -.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.1 +.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 241.0 +1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.3 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 33.5 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 13.25 basis points -3.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  155.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 532.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.32%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.84% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.8 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.1 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 70.8 +11.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.4 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 223.99 -1.14:  Growth Rate +1.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 17.6 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -84.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.27% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 63.8%(-4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 55.7%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +162 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +61 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/commodity/industrial/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long