Monday, March 13, 2023

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -9.0% 2) Oil Service -3.9% 3) Airlines -3.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BK, OMF, SSB, WFC, AIG, FFIN, JEF, LOB, RF, HOPE, UCBI, CASH, EQH, HWC, PPBI, EGBN, RF, HOPE, NCNO, JEF, CADE, PRU, UNM, C, HRI, ABG, GFF, FHB, USB, SCHW, TRIN, UNFI, SYF, BPOP, GTLS, JKHY, ALKT, CFG, WTFC, ALLY, BANC, WBS, CFR, COLB, TBBK, AEL, SNV, OCFC, LPLA, FITB, HQY, ABCB, TCBI, TFC, EWBC, EBC, BKU, SBCF, CVBF, HBAN, FHN, ZION, VBTX, QTWO, UMBF, CUBI, KEY, CMA, WAL and FRC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FRC 2) ZION 3) FHN 4) CFG 5) USB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FRC 2) WAL 3) PACW 4) FIS 5) CRIS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Gold & Silver +6.0% 2) Biotech +2.9% 3) Utilities +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PRVB, ILMN, SGEN, MSTR, ENVX, SAGE, COIN, PODD, BILL, XM, SIL, UBSI, FCN, WAFD, BX, TPVG and VLY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACAD 2) FRC 3) DPST 4) KBE 5) FHN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SGEN 2) ILMN 3) MSTR 4) HIPO 5) DRI

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (BLUE)/-.20 
  • (GES)/1.30 
  • (LEN)/1.55

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated at 90.3 versus 90.3 in Jan.
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
  • The CPI YoY for Feb. is estimated to rise +6.0% versus a +6.4% gain in Jan.
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Spain CPI report, US weekly retail sales reports, JP Morgan Industrials Conference, JP Morgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Conference, (BOX) analyst day, (LYB) capital markets day, BofA Consumer/Retail Tech Conference and the Barclays Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +84.7% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.2 +.5
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 31.9% of Issues Advancing, 66.1% Declining
  • 9 New 52-Week Highs, 307 New Lows
  • 39.9%(-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 28.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.3 -14.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,384.4 +1.7%
  • Vix 26.9 +8.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -13.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 -30.7%

Sunday, March 12, 2023

Monday Watch

Night Trading

  • Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 125.25 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 71.25 -2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 131.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.7 +.35%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 53.3 -3.2%.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.54 -38.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.2 -6.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.4%.
  • S&P 500 futures +1.69%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.75%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Monday, March 06, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 -2.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.75 +2.75 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 125.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  67.3 +.5%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .25 -6.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.3 -.21%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.