Monday, March 13, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                     
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:         
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.5 +7.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 77.0 +6.75 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.3 -2.9%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  67.3 +.%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.11 +16.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 -2.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.37%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 26.0 +4.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.93%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.0 -12.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.0 -.41%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +6.0%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.3 -.2% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +36.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 -13.8%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -39.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 +8.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.7 +9.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349.0 +26
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.03 +17.2% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 517.7 +19.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis basis points +11.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.7 +5.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 255.8 +5.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 -.17%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 34.5 basis points +7.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.0 -18.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  159.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 +40.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% -12.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 132.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.6 euros/megawatt-hour -6.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.9 +3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.6 -4.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.1 +2.0 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.33 n/a:  Growth Rate +1.1% n/a, P/E 17.3 n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.12 -96.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +37.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.63% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 48.2%(+48.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 47.0%(+47.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
US Covid-19:
  • 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -500 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Banks -9.0% 2) Oil Service -3.9% 3) Airlines -3.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BK, OMF, SSB, WFC, AIG, FFIN, JEF, LOB, RF, HOPE, UCBI, CASH, EQH, HWC, PPBI, EGBN, RF, HOPE, NCNO, JEF, CADE, PRU, UNM, C, HRI, ABG, GFF, FHB, USB, SCHW, TRIN, UNFI, SYF, BPOP, GTLS, JKHY, ALKT, CFG, WTFC, ALLY, BANC, WBS, CFR, COLB, TBBK, AEL, SNV, OCFC, LPLA, FITB, HQY, ABCB, TCBI, TFC, EWBC, EBC, BKU, SBCF, CVBF, HBAN, FHN, ZION, VBTX, QTWO, UMBF, CUBI, KEY, CMA, WAL and FRC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FRC 2) ZION 3) FHN 4) CFG 5) USB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FRC 2) WAL 3) PACW 4) FIS 5) CRIS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Gold & Silver +6.0% 2) Biotech +2.9% 3) Utilities +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PRVB, ILMN, SGEN, MSTR, ENVX, SAGE, COIN, PODD, BILL, XM, SIL, UBSI, FCN, WAFD, BX, TPVG and VLY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACAD 2) FRC 3) DPST 4) KBE 5) FHN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SGEN 2) ILMN 3) MSTR 4) HIPO 5) DRI

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (BLUE)/-.20 
  • (GES)/1.30 
  • (LEN)/1.55

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated at 90.3 versus 90.3 in Jan.
8:30 am EST
  • The CPI MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
  • The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
  • The CPI YoY for Feb. is estimated to rise +6.0% versus a +6.4% gain in Jan.
  • Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Spain CPI report, US weekly retail sales reports, JP Morgan Industrials Conference, JP Morgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Conference, (BOX) analyst day, (LYB) capital markets day, BofA Consumer/Retail Tech Conference and the Barclays Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +84.7% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.2 +.5
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 31.9% of Issues Advancing, 66.1% Declining
  • 9 New 52-Week Highs, 307 New Lows
  • 39.9%(-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 28.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.3 -14.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,384.4 +1.7%
  • Vix 26.9 +8.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 -13.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.06 -30.7%