Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles -1.7% 2) Road & Rail -.4% 3) Steel -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ALK, JBHT, SMAR, RUN, PNFP, EDU, UAL, DEI, SLG, HELE, ABR, LOVE, LOB, GTLB and RAPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KBAL 2) FRC 3) SCHW 4) PACW 5) ZION
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GTLB 2) RAD 3) RAPT 4) BZFD 5) UAL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• I-Banks +2.7% 2) Banks +2.6% 3) Networking +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PACW, FRC, CDMO, WAL, TBBK, SBCF, BG, QTWO, TCBI, UNVR, EBC, VBTX, KEY, AMLX, EWBC, OCFC, SSB, CFR, SCHW, HQY, WBS, LEA, AX, FISV, FHB, AUB, C, GBCI, FFIN, WTFC, OSPN, UMBF, PFS, ASB, LBAI and LPLA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WAL 2) FRC 3) PACW 4) KEY 5) DPST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CDMO 2) PACW 3) LX 4) AMLX 5) RIOT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (EBIX)/.46
• (PLCE)/-4.09
  

After the Close: 

• (ADBE)/3.68
• (FIVE)/3.07
• (GRPN)/-.36
• (PD)/.02
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Jan.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Jan.
• PPI Final Demand YoY for Feb. is estimated to rise +5.4% versus a +6.0% gain in Jan.
• Empire Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to -7.8 versus -5.8 in Feb.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -.4% versus a +3.0% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated unch. versus a +2.3% gain in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +1.7% gain in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated unch. versus a +.3% gain in Dec.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for March is estimated to fall to 40.0 versus 42.0 in Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +416,860 barrels versus a -1,694,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall -1,402,430 barrels versus a -1,134,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,262,000 barrels versus a +138,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.36% versus a +.2% gain prior.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The UK CPI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the UBS Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +32.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 +3.4
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 88.5% of Issues Advancing, 9.6% Declining
• 12 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 41.6%(+9.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.2 +12.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,385.0 -.04%
  
• Vix 22.9 -13.4%
• Total Put/Call .82 -21.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +5.9%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• SVB Crisis Drives Concern Over Japanese Banks’ Exposure to US Bonds.
• Startups Need to Learn Banking Risks, Australian Investor Says.  
• Australia’s Weak Consumer Confidence Boosts Case for Rate Pause.
• Asia Faces Turbulence as Traders Shift Rate Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Risk-Off Drop as Fed Watchers Wait for Inflation Data.
• What Silicon Valley Bank’s Collapse Means for Climate Tech.  
• SVB Didn’t Just Lend to Startups. It Was Key Partner for Affordable Housing.  
• Buttigieg Backs Stricter Train Safety Rules After Toxic Ohio Derailment.  
• ‘QE in Another Name’: New Bank Backstop Points to the End of Fed QT.
  
• SVB’s Failure Exposes Lurking Systemic Risk of Tech’s Money Machine.  
• Why the US Backstop After SVB’s Failure Is a Bailout: Joe Weisenthal.  
• Transcript: How the Federal Reserve Grew More Powerful Than Anyone Ever Imagined.
• Six Charts Show the Dramatic Shock of SVB’s Collapse.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden’s Bank Bailout Whoppers. The President offers assurances that markets don’t believe.
• CEO Was There for SVB’s Quick Rise, Even Quicker Fall.
• Investors Are Searching for Safe Spaces in Banking.
• First Republic Leads Rout in Bank Stocks.
• Barney Frank Pushed to Ease Financial Rules After Joining Signature Board.
• Court Ruling Hands Win to Uber, Lyft.
• What Do We Actually Know About Covid-19? Not Enough.
• Biden Administration Approves Willow Oil Project in Alaska.
• Boeing Expected to Sell About 80 Dreamliners in Saudi Airline Deal.

Fox News:

• Biden's new green mandates would make Americans dirtier and stinkier — and raise prices.

CNBC.com:

• First Republic drops 60%, leads decline in bank stocks despite government’s backstop of SVB.
• Jeffrey Gundlach says Fed will hike funds rate next week to save credibility — but shouldn’t.
• CNBC Daily Open: The bank rout continues. The Fed might still raise rates anyway.
• Something broke, but the Fed is still expected to go through with hikes.
• Why Signature Bank was seized in third-biggest bank failure in U.S. history.
• Petco selects Adobe Experience Cloud as a one-stop destination for pet parents.
• 2-year Treasury yield posts biggest 3-day decline since aftermath of 1987 stock crash.
• Charles Schwab shares drop 12% even as the firm defends financial position.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GitLab, United Airlines, First Republic Bank and more.

MarketWatch:                     

• Banking industry jitters could mean more pain for stocks by dragging out Fed’s battle with inflation.
  
• Amid bank failures, savers look to stretch federal deposit cash protection beyond $250,000. 
• SVB fallout likely to affect some software sales in the short term, and how startups are financed long term.  
• GitLab stock drops more than 30% as revenue forecast misses.  
• United Airlines stock tanks 7% after airline guides for quarterly loss on lower demand, higher fuel prices.  
• Western Alliance and First Republic clobbered as regional bank jitters persist despite Fed backstops.  
• Climate tech risked becoming a banking-crisis casualty. What’s next for solar and the rest of fledgling sector?

Zero Hedge:

• Big Trouble In Little Banks - Bailout Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion.
• Monday Humor: Musk Triggers Angry Old Man With Tweet.
• Simon Black: The Unraveling Can Happen In An Instant.
• Michigan Governor Admits COVID-19 Lockdowns Went Too Far.
• Should The Names Of Stanford Student Disrupters Be Published?
• Johnstone: Imperial Narrative Managers Always Try To Make Peace Seem Unnatural.
• DB: "Today's Events Are Consistent With An Imminent US Recession".
• China To Host Major Middle East Summit After 'Success' Of Iran-Saudi Deal.
• Late Season Nor'easter Set To Wallop Millions In Northeast.
• Equities were mixed and yields dropped heavily in the fallout from recent bank failures - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Hudson: Why The Banking System Is Breaking Up.
• Nomura Calls For Rate Cut At Next FOMC Meeting, End Of QT.
• Unchanged, but with some big MOVEs.
• Tucker Carlson Unbound: Setting Fire To The Uniparty.
• Yields & Financials in free fall amid haven flows on bank failure fallout - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• US Intel Agencies Need To Focus Intensely On 'Diversity, Equity, Inclusion,' Intelligence Chief Says.
• Fed Announces Probe Into Its Own Regulatory Failure At SVB.
• Red Cross Giving Migrants "Maps And Guides" To Aid In Illegal Border Crossings.
• Nomura: "Deposit Flight" Does Not Just Go Away From Here.

Newsmax:         

• Rep. Ogles: Don't Rescue Poorly Managed Banks.
• Barney Frank: Regulators Sound Alarm on Digital Currency.
• Rep. Davidson: 'More Banks Could Fail'.
  
• Key Abortion Pill Hearing Is Made Public After Transparency Concerns.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Biden Lies By Omission – Forgets to Tell Americans that We Are Bailing Out China’s Venture Capital Business with Silicon Valley Bank Rescue.
• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene ReTweets Heartbreaking Video of Young Children Devastated After Being Denied Visitation Day With J6 Political Prisoner Father.
• Ray Epps Lied – He Committed Criminal Acts and It Was ALL CAUGHT on Video — Here Are the Eight Trump Supporters the FBI Arrested and Who Are Serving Years in Prison for Committing Same Act.
• PURE EVIL: DOJ Responds to Tucker Carlson Video Footage of Peaceful Q-Shaman Being Escorted Through US Capitol – Says It “Lacks Context”.
• Study Finds US Government May Have Been BILLED TWICE by the Wuhan Lab for Its Research on Dangerous Pathogens Like the Coronavirus.
• Dem Presidential Wanna-be Candidate Gov Whitmer Hilariously Blames Data When Asked Why DOUBLE The Number of People In MI Died of COVID Compared to FL Where Lockdowns Were Lifted 10 Months Earlier.
• Ric Grenell on the Lou Dobbs Show: “Every Single Intelligence Agency Signed Off” on a Statement in April 2020 Declaring China Responsible for COVID Pandemic – It Was a Cover-Up (VIDEO).
• Tens of Thousands of Dutch Farmers Protest in The Hague: “Resist Much, Obey Little!”. 
  

The Epoch Times:

• Micronesian Leader Calls to Sever Ties With China, Citing Political Warfare and Direct Threats.
• China Secures Australian Lithium For Almost 70 Percent Below Market Value.

Twitter: 

• @ChuckCallesto - JUST IN: Video emerges of Capitol police smiling while HOLDING DOORS OPEN for protesters on J6... (video)
• @isource_news - USA Sovereign Credit Risk Hits Record High As Interbank Funding Stress Explodes. Jump worse than Lehman crisis. (graph)
• @charliebilello - Silicon Valley Bank, Stock Based Compensation... 2011: $18 million 2012: $22 million 2013: $25 million 2014: $30 million 2015: $32 million 2016: $35 million 2017: $37 million 2018: $46 million 2019: $67 million 2020: $84 million 2021: $136 million 2022: $183 million.
• @steve_hanke - Sanctioned Chinese artificial intelligence groups are finding easy access to high-end US chips via intermediaries. Sanctions always have their workarounds.
• @gatewaypundit - Silicon Valley Bank Employees Made Large Donations to Biden and Other Democrats.
• @unusual_whales - Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, executives sold a lot of their shares. Gregory Becker, CEO, sold 11% on Feb 27, 2023. Michael Zucker, General Counsel, 19% on Feb 5. Daniel Beck, CFO, sold 32% on Feb 27. Michelle Draper, CMO, sold 25% on Feb 1. Unusual.
• @WallStreetSilv - German food inflation ... And I bet the numbers are underreported. (graph)
• @MarketWatch - 20 banks that are sitting on huge potential securities losses—as was SVB.
• @Barchart - Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF $ARKK has generated $300M in trading fees since inception despite losing roughly $10B of investor capital over the same time frame.
• @zerohedge - Oh BofA you've been a naughty, naughty bank. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 942,034 Reports(+3,859 from prior report) Through March 3rd, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 132.5 +7.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 77.0 +6.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 132.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.3 -2.9%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  67.3 +.%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.11 +16.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 -2.9%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.

• S&P 500 futures +.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Biotech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 26.0 +4.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.93%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.0 -12.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.0 -.41%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +6.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.3 -.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +36.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.06 -13.8%

• NYSE Arms .93 -39.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 89.0 +8.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 425.7 +9.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349.0 +26
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 110.03 +17.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 517.7 +19.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis basis points +11.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.7 +5.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 255.8 +5.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.0 -.17%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 basis points -7.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 34.5 basis points +7.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -42.0 -18.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  159.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 606.0 +40.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.5 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.75% -12.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.44%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.6 euros/megawatt-hour -6.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.9 +3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.6 -4.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.1 +2.0 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 225.33 n/a:  Growth Rate +1.1% n/a, P/E 17.3 n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.38% unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.12 -96.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +37.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.63% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.72% unch.: CPI YoY +6.21% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 48.2%(+48.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 47.0%(+47.0 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 84 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 4.8%(-0.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.3%(+.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -500 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +48 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long