Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 +.7
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 79.8% of Issues Advancing, 17.6% Declining
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
• 39.4%(+5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 49.3 +.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,995.7 +.27%
  
• Vix 20.4 -8.4%
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +18.9%
• TRIN/Arms .74 -76.7%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 139.75 -4.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.75 +.75 basis point. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  48.0 -1.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.28 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.5 -.21%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Afternoon on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.9 -2.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .63%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 49.0 +2.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 149.0 +.21%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 -.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 37.8 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +16.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .80 -21.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 +79.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 83.0 +.06%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 424.03 +.88%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 440.0 +3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 105.12 -1.96% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 287.67 -15.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 140.0 -2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 254.11 +.42%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.96 +.44%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 33.75 basis points +8.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  163.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 85.0 +4.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.39%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.67% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.85%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.0 euros/megawatt-hour -5.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.2 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 44.5 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.2 -.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.13 +.19:  Growth Rate +1.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.30% +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.33 +7.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -52.75 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.25% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 3rd FOMC meeting: 51.6%(-8.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 14th meeting: 48.9%(+8.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -106 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +179 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Banks -2.1% 2) REITs -1.9% 3) Oil Service -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CERT, FRC, UBS, USB, PDD, SCHW, CMA, SLG, ASAI, AXNX, AMPL, EPAC and PACW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ARES 2) FRC 3) PACW 4) ABR 5) DPST
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QTT 2) CYXT 3) LAZR 4) FRC 5) PACW
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Video Gaming +1.3% 2) Electric Vehicles +1.3% 3) Shipping +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GME, ETNB, GBX, ARRY, SCVL, OLLI, DNUT, SMTC, KRTX, AIR, SMCI, WAL and NVDA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PACW 2) FRC 3) ACI 4) DD 5) ALLY

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) JAN 3) ETNB 4) TK 5) TZOO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/2.50
• (CMC)/1.51
• (DRI)/2.24
• (FDS)/3.67
• (GIS)/.92
• (LAC)/-.34
  

After the Close: 

• (OXM)/2.12
• (MDRX)/.27
• (AUY)/.06
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 198K versus 192K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1691K versus 1684K prior.
• The 4Q Current Account Balance is estimated to widen to -$213.7B versus -$217.1B in 3Q.
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to fall to .1 versus .23 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 650K versus 670K in Jan.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to -2.0 versus 0.0 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• (GCBC) 2-for-1
• (FCUV) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bank of England decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MO) investor day and the (GPC) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST