Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Tightening Global Financial Conditions, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.9 +1.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.11%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.2 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 -.66%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.8 +.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.2 -.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 +3.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 -3.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -10.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 86.4 +.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 458.1 +2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 449.0 +9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 117.32 +2.8% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 496.6 +1.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 145.4 +4.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 255.0 -.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.8 -.2%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 53.5 basis points +16.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.25 -7.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  157.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 656.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 118.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.1 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.2 +9.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.6 +8.6 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.2 -.4 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.23 +.03:  Growth Rate +1.7% unch., P/E 17.5 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.34% +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.86 -16.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.19% -6.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.73% unch.: CPI YoY +5.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for June 14th FOMC meeting: 64.8%(+10.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for July 26th meeting: 58.7%(+10.1 percentage points) chance of 4.50%-4.75%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -275 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +187 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.3% 2) Semis -2.0% 3) I-Banks -1.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SHEL, URI, HLT, PHG, AKRO, HRI, IBKR, ZNTL, CHWY, ETNB, TRUP, INCY, PDD, TRMD, PTCT, GTLB and RILY
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FRC 2) OZK 3) ARI 4) RF 5) PACW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SCHL 2) OXM 3) HUMA 4) INCY 5) SQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Utilities +1.7% 2) Gold & Silver +1.5% 3) Regional Banks +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TALO, ATVI, FHN, HCC, ISRG, AI, RBLX, PRCT and KRC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FRC 2) FHN 3) PACW 4) CMA 5) DPST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AFYA 2) MITQ 3) RNW 4) CURV 5) DRMA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (BNTX)/7.75
• (CCL)/-.60
  

After the Close: 

• (PVH)/1.67
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -13.5 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Eurozone Trade Data report, 2Y T-Note auction and the (CIG) investor meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +17.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.4 -2.1
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 33.4% of Issues Advancing, 62.6% Declining
• 14 New 52-Week Highs, 221 New Lows
• 35.8%(-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 35.0 -7.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 43.9 -5.9%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,235.0 -.01%
  
• Vix 24.0 +6.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.11 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.14 +.88%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Kim Jong Un Tests Undersea Drone, Warns of ‘Radioactive Tsunami’.
• Profit Warnings Show Difficult Times Ahead for China Brokerages.
• UBS Sends Khan to Stem Credit Suisse’s Private Banker Exits.
• Japan Inflation Slows Sharply, Masking Underlying Price Strength.
• Unusual $828 Billion Loan Market Magnifies Housing Risk in Korea.
• Credit Suisse, UBS Among Banks in DOJ Russia-Sanctions Probe.
• Asian Equities Decline After US Banks Extend Drop: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Declines Amid Bank Concerns, US Caution on Stockpile Refill.
• Volcker Slayed Inflation. Bernanke Saved the Banks. Can Powell Do Both?
• Wall Street Expects the Fed to Cut Rates. That Isn’t a Good Sign.
• Goldman Sees Biden’s Clean-Energy Law Costing US $1.2 Trillion.
• New Fed Forecasts Suggest Central Bank Is Bracing for Recession.
• Cathie Wood Suffers Double Blow as Drama Hits Coinbase and Block.
• Banks Are Still Drawing on the Fed for $164 Billion of Emergency Cash.
• Do Kwon Is Arrested in Montenegro and Charged With Fraud in US.

Wall Street Journal: 

• U.S., Canada Reach Deal on Migrants.
• Dominion’s Weak Case Against Fox. Victory for the plaintiff would severely weaken the First Amendment protection all news media enjoy.
• Ford Projects $3 Billion Loss on EV Business for 2023.
• Home Renovations Were Always Tough, but Now Many Are Giving Up Midproject.

Fox News:

• Man accused of sexual assault, torture and 4 murders gets released from jail on bond.

CNBC.com:

• Block stock plunges 15% after short seller Hindenburg says Jack Dorsey’s company facilitates fraud.
• These tech giants are still making money, but layoffs are coming hard and fast.
• Banks ramp up use of new Fed facility created during crisis.
• Yellen says Treasury is ready to take ‘additional actions if warranted’ to stabilize banks.
• TikTok CEO got grilled by lawmakers from both parties over China ties.
• Biden’s approval slips to 38%, near the lowest of his presidency, new poll says.

MarketWatch:

• Which eye drops have been recalled in 2023? Here’s a running list.
• Regional banks get the attention, but worries are more widespread, says ex-FDIC chief Sheila Bair.
• Moody’s sees risk that U.S. banking ‘turmoil’ can’t be contained.
• Why TikTok’s security risks keep raising fears.

Zero Hedge:

• Bipartisan Senators Push To Ban China From Buying US Farmland.
• Markets To Yellen: 'F**k Off.'
• Victor Davis Hanson: Questions Without Answers About Ukraine.
• Squatters Increasingly Taking Over Homes Across US With No End In Sight, Experts Warn.
• DEA Warns 'Zombie Drug' Hitting US Streets, Set To Worsen Overdose Crisis.
• Fed Balance Sheet Surges By Another $100BN Amid Bank Runs As Foreign Repos Soar By Record And Cash Floods Into Reverse Repo, Money Markets.
• Biden's Collapsing Sgt. Schultz Defense: New Evidence Shows The President Played Direct Role In Addressing Hunter's Business Deals.
• US stocks mostly finished higher in choppy trade as markets digested recent central bank announcements and amid dovish market repricing of Fed rate expectations - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Weaker "weaks".
• Largest Jobs Website Lays Off Thousands Of Employees.
• Markets chop as traders digest banking woes, Fed & Yellen - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Why Can Only 6 Of Every 100 Chicago Black Students Do Math At Grade Level? Chicago Mayoral Candidate Johnson Offers Some Clues.
• Mexican President Says Trump Arrest Is About Keeping Him Off The Ballot.
• After Sparking Rout, Yellen Changes Key Part Of Prepared Testimony, Says "Prepared For Additional Deposit Action".

 Newsmax:     

• Rep. Greene: DA Bragg Weaponizing Government.
• Sen. Cruz: Newsmax's DirecTV Return a Big Free Speech Win.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• University of Maryland Faces $10 Million Lawsuit After Shutting Down Anti-CCP Protests and Allowing CCP Drone to Harass Protesters.
• EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Mother of Peaceful J6 Prisoner “QAnon Shaman” Jake Chansley – Announces He Will Be Released From Prison “Really Soon!”
• MUST SEE: Arizona Kari Lake Ruling a MAJOR WIN! Will Expose Mail-In Ballot Signature Scam – DEMOCRATS FREAK! – War Room Video.
• EXCLUSIVE: ELECTION SYSTEM DISCOVERED – Used in MULTIPLE States – Internet Connected, Uncertified, and Accessible to Numerous Govt Agencies and Outside Entities.
• ‘Highly Talented, Supremely Fit’ 19-Year-Old Boxing Champion Dies Suddenly.
• World Athletics Bans Transgenders (Biological Males) From Competing Against Women at International Events.
• Fed-Surrection Update: Proud Boys Member Ken Lizardo Who Drove Founder Enrique Tarrio to Meeting with Oath Keepers Founder on Jan. 5th Was an FBI Operative.
• EXCLUSIVE: Australia Banks are Now “Debanking” Independent Journalists Exercising Their Free Speech Rights.
• DISGRACEFUL: Houston Suspect Accused of Paralyzing Helpless Texas Woman by Body-Slamming Her to the Ground Has $200,000 bond Cut in HALF.
• New Normal: Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania Work on Legislations to Have More Defibrillator Access in Schools.
• Walmart to Charge Customers 42 Cents Per Shopping Bag Starting March 28 to Tackle Climate Crisis.
• Teenage Boy Suffers Cardiac Arrest and Dies on American Airlines Flight Reportedly Because On-Board Defibrillator Wasn’t Charged.

The Epoch Times:

• TikTok CEO Refuses to Say Whether CCP Has Persecuted Uyghurs.
• TikTok CEO Testifies Company Still Storing Some US User Data Overseas, Raising Security Fears.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 942,034 Reports(+3,859 from prior week) Through March 3rd, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.5 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +4.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 117.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.67 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  46.9 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.83 -12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.0 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.70%.

• S&P 500 futures +.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.