Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,117.1 -.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,2944 -1.3%

• NASDAQ 12,286.2 +.26%

• Russell 2000 1,736.79 -1.4%

• NYSE FANG+ 6,350.9 +3.0% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 30.0 -.43%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 13454 -2.4%

• Wilshire 5000 41,018.93 -.50%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,494..23 +.22%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,47785 -1.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 803.6 -.08%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,125.47 +1.32%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,124493 +.37%

• Transports 13,760.4 -2.6%

• Utilities 957.80 -.52%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 79.55 +.68%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.69 -2.0%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,467.8 +.18%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 922.08 +.27%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 452,940 +.12%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +12.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -212 +432
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.5 +11.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 214,845 -9.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,908,299 +4.5%

• Total Put/Call .89 -5.4%

• OEX Put/Call 1.21 +.68%

• ISE Sentiment 109.0 +9.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +108.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.1 -2.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.01 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -3.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.1 +2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .89% -39.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.0 -2.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.58 -3.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.8 +.71%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,463.05 +1.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  65.2 -1.8
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.328 Trillion +.4%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$15.603 Million

• AAII % Bulls 29.4 +22.0%

• AAII % Bears 41.2 -8.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 257.92 -1.4%

• Crude Oil 70.15/bbl. -1.74%

• Reformulated Gasoline 242.67 +1.9%

• Natural Gas 2.28 +7.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.8 euros/megawatt-hour -8.6%
  

• Heating Oil 230.55 -.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 160.1 (1,000/metric ton) -5.8%
  

• Gold 2,012.48 -.08%
• Silver 23.98 -6.4%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 413.18 -5.2%

• Copper 372.5 -4.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 377.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.5 USD/Metric Tonne -3.2%

• Lumber  339.9 -5.5%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,550.47 -.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 395.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.75% +9.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% +12.0%
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.03 +27.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.3 n/a
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.9% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.95 +.23:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.3 
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.52 n/a: Growth Rate +28.2% n/a, P/E 32.4 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -13.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 -6.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -5.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-11.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.75-5.0%, 82.3%(-9.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 17.7%(+9.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.25-5.50% on 6/14
  

• US Dollar Index 102.71 +1.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,689.80 -.29%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 26,315.2 -9.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.34 -.73%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -55.0 -7.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.46% +2.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.466 Trillion -.01% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.621 Billion -90.9%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.04 +2.9%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 183.11 +2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.14 -14.9%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.59 -5.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 226.26 +.21%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.17 +1.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 4338 -3.9%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -1.1%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.3% -20.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +5.3% -70.0 basis points
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +7.6% -90.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.2% -50.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% -1.0 basis point: CPI YoY +4.14% -105.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19% -3.0 basis points

• TED Spread 15.75 +6.25 basis points
  
• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 -4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 -2.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.9 -.24%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 263.0 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 102.18 -1.5%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 386.13 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 248.58 +.38%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 708.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .95 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -4.1% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,146.4 +.20%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,250 +2.5%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.9 +.22%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.84% +5.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 227,800 +6.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +1.3% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -13.0% -9.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $177.6M +15.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,608 +4.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 955.93 -1.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 43.4 -5.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 240,141 -2.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,585,633 +26.5%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.9%

Leading Sectors

• Cyber Security +1.7%

• Internet +1.6%
• Electric Vehicles +.8%
  

• Alt Energy +.5%
  

• Video Gaming +.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Agriculture -3.3%
  

• Banks -4.3%
  

• Oil Service -4.4%

• Gold & Silver -5.2%
  

• Regional Banks -6.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)

• FSLR, TPIC, ARRY, NXT, TH,, VYGR, MRVI, SIBN, MTZ, MRCY, FLNC, CNXC, ENPH and GT
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (22)

• MODG, SONO, SPWR, MET, CTLT, PYPL,, , NTR, CPRX, BE, COHR, GDS, GEN, ABNB, SANM, TSE, ARQT, ACLX, BOH, SPHR and HROW
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Consumer Inflation Expectations, Dollar Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.6 +4.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .73%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.6 +4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 154.4 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.9 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 +2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .89 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.31 +22.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.2 +.53%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 421.47 +.64%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 437.0 +12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.52 -2.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 383.36 -2.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 130.41 -.73%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 249.06 +1.18%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 -.42%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 15.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.5 +1.5 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 172.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 708.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 -.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.16% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.8 euros/megawatt-hour -6.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -6.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 unch.
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -3.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -3.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.95 +.12:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.1 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) -2.1% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 198.52 +.89: Growth Rate +28.2% -80.0 basis points, P/E 32.0 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.04 +6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.54 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -5.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.75% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.14% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 60.5%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 47.4%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +117 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -72 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming -2.0% 2) Internet -1.6% 3) Banks -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PYPL, UPST NTR, PUK, CPRX, WMG, AGTI, HPK, APP, ZG, SPOT, JKS, SPWR, ABB, TCMD, AU, BOH, CMA, ZIP, ARQT, TRMD, BMBL, BILI, VNO, RVNC, IGMS, AFRM, GDS, CTLT, W, TWLO, TGTX, RNG, TOST, TSE, YETI, SUPN, ACLX, EHAB, TRUP, JD, CVI, SMG, RIVN, BE, COHR, SANM, SAVA, GN, U, CVNA and HROW
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CG 2) BE 3) ONON 4) FSLR 5) YETI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CMA 2) CARR 3) HPQ 4) SPB 5)PACW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Computer Services +.2% 2) Steel +.1% 3) Utilities unch.

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FSLR, ARRY, NXT, TH, IEP, SIBN, MTZ, MRVI, BYND and ENPH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CG 2) BE 3) ONON 4) AX 5) WMB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GETR 2) FSLR 3) ARLO 4) NXT 5) LGIQ
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CTLT)/.59
• (SFL)/.13
• (TSEM)/.47
• (TPG)/.33
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to -4.0 versus 10.8 in April.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Eurogroup Meeting, BofA Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, JMP Securities Life Sciences Conference, (MOH) investor day, (LSCC) investor day and the (JKHY) investor day could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 +.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 50.5% of Issues Advancing, 46.5% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 43 New Lows
• 41.1%(+3.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 +2
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.4 +1.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,512.2 -.2%
• 1-Day Vix 10.6 -23.6%
  
• Vix 16.7 -1.4% 
  
• Total Put/Call .94 +5.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +40.2%