Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Radioactive Water Worries Japan’s Top Seafood Trade Partners.
• Goldman Is Calling Out China at the Worst Time.
• NATO Digs In on Putin’s Borders With New Allies and Aid for Kyiv.
• Surging Food Prices Seen Pushing Up India’s Inflation in June.
• UK’s Inflation Crisis Expected to Last Another 10 Months.
• Asian Equities Mixed as Traders Await US CPI Data: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Gain on Signs Russian Crude Flows Starting to Decline.
• Microsoft Cleared to Buy Activision in US as UK Pauses Fight.
• The Hurdles That Remain for Microsoft-Activision Deal.
• Meme Stocks Are Back, Raising a ‘Red Flag’ for the Broader Market.
• What's Behind Nasdaq 100's First-Ever ‘Special Rebalance’?
• SEC Removes ‘Swing Pricing’ From Money-Market Fund Overhaul Plan.
• The Internal Memos That Show How LIV Golf Won Over PGA Tour.
• AI Is Making Politics Easier, Cheaper and More Dangerous. 
• California Grid Sees Tenfold Spike in Battery Storage in 3 Years.

Zero Hedge:

• Tucker Carlson Uncensored One-On-One With Andrew Tate: "I Don't Want You To Think That I'm A Conspiracy Theorist".
• US Introduces New Immigration Pathway For People From Central America, Colombia.
• Illinois Law Forces Landlords To Rent To Illegals Or Face Civil Rights Violations.
• Supreme Court Independence Jeopardized by Leftist Fanatics.
• Taibbi: Is The FBI Helping Ukraine's Secret Service Censor Americans?
• Blinken: Ukraine Will Be "Defenseless" Without US Cluster Bombs.
• Chase it until it breaks.
• Apple Will Permanently Delete iPhone Photos In July: Here’s How To Keep Yours Safe.
• US stocks edged higher in catalyst-light trade ahead of US CPI data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Toyota Calls Biden's EPA Plan To Boost EV Sales "Unrealistic".
• Bernie Sanders' Medicare-For-All Would Destroy America's Health-Care.
• "Bad News": Disability Claims 'Accelerating Again' After Steady Climb.
• Red States, Blue Cities: Who's To Blame For America's Homicide Crisis.
• WTI 'Off The Highs' After API Reports Surprise Large Crude/Product Builds.
• Tight, thin, and choppy stocks and bonds, while Dollar dips on eve of CPI - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Will AI Deliver The Worst Of Both Worlds?
• Consumer Cracks: Prices Of Online Goods Tumble At Sharpest Rate Since Early Pandemic.
• Massive Short-Squeeze Sends Small Caps Soaring; Gold Up, USD Dn Ahead Of CPI.

Wall Street Journal:  

• Investor Group Takes Aim at Antibiotics, Demanding Changes From Fast-Food Companies.
• How a Houston Oilman Confounded Climate Activists and Made Billions.
• America Has Shortage of Key Lead-Poisoning Drug.
• Historic Rate Increases Leave Some on Wall Street Wanting More.
• Liberals Can’t Comprehend Black Economic Progress. It undermines the argument that society is stacked against racial and ethnic minorities.

CNBC.com:

• Bank of America fined $150 million for consumer abuses including fake accounts, bogus fees.
• Google quietly ditched plans for an AI-powered chatbot app for Gen Z
• Elite workforce, booming economy lead North Carolina to repeat as America’s Top State for Business
• Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin rocket engine explodes during testing

MarketWatch:

• This small-cap stock index achieves first ‘golden cross’ in almost half a year, pointing to potential rally.
• CEOs are more nervous than they’re letting on, according to this research company.
• S&P 500 is most likely going to correct back to 4,100, Mizuho warns market bulls.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Laurel Lee to Newsmax: House Judiciary Has Important Questions for FBI Boss Wray.
• Sen. Hoeven: We Need to Get 'Tough' on China.

Fox News:

• Gun rights group issues state 'travel advisory' after firearm restrictions proposed.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Tucker Carlson Breaks the Internet and Interviews Andrew Tate for Over 2 Hours – Tate Tells His Romanian Arrest Story and How the US Embassy Was Not Interested in Getting Him Out (VIDEO).
• WOW! Reporter Asks Jake Sullivan Why the DOJ Charged Biden Crime Family Whistleblower Gal Luft For Violating FARA, But Spared Hunter Biden (VIDEO).
• $40 Million OPENING! Sound of Freedom BREAKS Box Offices! | Elijah Schaffer’s Top Picks (VIDEO).
• John Kerry Says People Will Have a “Better Quality of Life” with Strict Green New Deal-Style Climate Mandates (VIDEO).
• “Dragging Us Further Toward World War III”: Trump Condemns Biden Sending Cluster Bombs to Ukraine.
• Brazilian Faith Healer ‘John of God’ Is Sentenced To Additional 99 Years for Sexual Crimes – Once Promoted by Oprah, Serial Rapist Now Faces 370 Years in Prison, but Awaits Appeals Under House Arrest.
• California Assembly Blocks Legislation That Would Have Made Child Trafficking Punishable By Life in Prison.
• VICTORY: Brave Georgia Democrat Switches Parties – Previously Warned “the Democrat Party Establishment is Looking to Take Me Out” (VIDEO).
• “DOJ Is Trying to Bury Me to Protect Joe, Jim and Hunter Biden” – Whistleblower Gal Luft Launches GiveSendGo Campaign After Biden’s AG Charges Him.
• ‘Where Are These Tapes?’ – Grassley Blasts the FBI For Hiding the 17 Smoking Gun Tapes Incriminating Joe Biden in Bribery Scheme (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: Select Subcommittee on the COVID Pandemic Releases Explosive Report on COVID-19 Lab Leak Hypothesis – Reveals Coordinated Effort, Led by Dr. Fauci, to Suppress COVID-19 Lab-Leak Theory.
• National Debt Soars by $1 Trillion Just Weeks After McCarthy-Biden Debt Ceiling Deal.
• Tulsi Gabbard Calls on Congress to Ban Use of Harmful Chemical Linked to Gender Issues — Corporate Media Runs to Defend the Fascist Transgender Agenda.

The Epoch Times:

• Nike Canada Under Investigation for Allegations of Using Uyghur Forced Labour: Watchdog.

Twitter: 

• @cotupacs - Just remember next time you plug your car into the coal powered grid, or utilise the energy obtained by diesel generated wind turbines to get a few miles of electric charge, that in order for these cars to exist…… (video)
• @theinformantofc - I believe we are facing the biggest human trafficking operation in history. Main stream news is downplaying the #SoundofFreedom for the same reason they won’t investigate #Epstein’s client list…
• @DAKDIS - @BrianKempGA would be required to explain his betrayal on illegal immigration in a sanctuary state with more illegals than AZ.
• @Callum_Thomas - US 30-year mortgage at a new 10yr high of 7.38%. Based on median house prices, and adjusting for CPI, the effective cost of servicing a new mortgage is now back to 1984 levels. (graph)
• @songpinganq - It's happening in China now. Once you are blacklisted by social credit system, you can no longer use China's CBDC digital wallet-Alipay or Wechat pay. Which means you can't order food, book hotel room, buy train/plane tickets...etc online. (video)
• @DrLoupis - Increasing Number Of European Nations Adopt A More Cautious Approach To Gender-Affirming Care Among Minors. In other words: They know it’s unscientific nonsense. Matt Walsh calling out a “doctor” who gives chemical castration drugs to kids.
  (video)
• @acemaxx - The worsening factory-gate price #deflation and the move by consumer prices towards #deflation for the 1st time since Feb. 2021 bode ill for #China 's economic growth, chart. (graph)
• @charliekirk11 - How could you find something wrong with a movie which is about saving children from sex trafficking? (video)
• @zerohedge - Average credit card interest rate hits new record high 22.2%. (graph)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.75 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 -1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.5 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 -.04%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 66.1 +.44%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 162.7 -.65%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.5 -.24% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 169.0 +48.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -26.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +6.38%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.9 -2.32%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 357.4 -2.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 363.0 +8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.19 -3.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 277.98 -2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 177.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.9 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.70 -2.24%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.77 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 173.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 715.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.46 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.46%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.1 euros/megawatt-hour  -3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.6 +.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -135.7 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +6.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) -20.6% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.50 +.02:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 19.1 +.1 point
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.21% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 215.58 +.29: Growth Rate +41.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 35.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.22 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -91.25 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.29% +16.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.35% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 70.3%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 54.9%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +62 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -128 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +122 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.0% 2) Pharma -1.0% 3) Airlines -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HELE, VRSN, EH, CMPS and VRDN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HPE 2) ATVI 3) DBX 4) CAG 5) SPXU
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IOVA 2) JBLU 3) ATLX 4) IBRX 5) DOYU
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

 Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Service +2.6% 2) Video Gaming +2.6% 3) Retail +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RDFN, TNDM, ROKU, ATVI, AFRM, COIN, TSE, ETSY, SNAP, BLFS, ZG, SSTK, U, SMG, Z, HOOD, VMW, CDNA, EVBG, RBLX, HPQ, RH, AVTA, BX, EA, TTWO, MMM, BYND, DT, LOVE, GNRC, CRM, KNTK, RIOT and OGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RNG 2) PENN 3) ASO 4) ATVI 5) DLO

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WDFC 2) ELOX 3) GDTC 4) BTTX 5) TAOP
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/.02
  

After the Close: 

• (MLKN)/.39
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in May.
• Real Average Weekly Earnings YoY for June.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -$549,800 barrels versus a -1,508,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,302,800 barrels versus a -2,549,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -527,200 barrels versus a -1,045,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.4% versus a -1.1% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Reserve Beige Book release.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Mester speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Bank of Canada update, 10Y T-Note auction and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -4.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.4 -5.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 69.0% of Issues Advancing, 28.0% Declining
• 120 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 53.8%(+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +5.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.0 +.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,243.6 -.5%
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 +4.2%
  
• Vix 14.8 -1.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -16.1%
• TRIN/Arms .85 -9.6%