Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Worse-Than-Expected Exports Deal New Blow to Economy.
• China’s Central Bank Faces Tricky Policy Path as Deflation Looms.
• The Toughest ESG Rule Yet Puts EU on Collision Course With US.
• Asian Stocks Extend Weekly Rally on Peak-Rate Bets: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Set for Third Weekly Gain as African Outages Tighten Supply.
• An Arrest, a Ruling, a Rally: Crypto’s Wild Day in the Courts.
• Why Hollywood’s Writers and Actors Are Striking.
• Fed’s Bullard, Influential Voice on Rates, to Leave for Academia.
• Microsoft, Activision Weigh Sale of Some UK Cloud-Gaming Rights.
• Americans Now Cutting Back on Food Purchases, Conagra CEO Says.
• Layoffs Are Slowing. Will the Global Economy Escape Recession?
• Bank of America Is Using AI and Metaverse to Train New Hires.
• Relics of the Last Property Crash Start to Wobble Again.
• US Money-Market Fund Balances Retreat From All-Time High.
• Bond Rally Gains Momentum as Traders See Rates Close to Peak.

Zero Hedge:

• DC Council Passes Emergency Bill As Crime Rates Soar
• US Government Moves Nearly 10k Bitcoin Worth Over $300 Million Related To Silk Road Seizure
• Chipotle Tests "Autocado" Robot To Streamline Guacamole Prep.
• These Are The World's Top 40 Largest Military Budgets.
• Does Anyone Care Anymore?
• "Not Some Fringe Theory": Flip-Flopping Virologist Thought Lab Leak "Highly Likely" Before Toeing Fauci's Line.
• Homicides Soar 96% In Washington State After Passage Of Gun Restrictions.
• Republicans Accuse Biden of 'Anti-Israel' Policies As Relations Hit Low Point.
• Defying gravity.
• Veteran-Owned 'Clean Beef' Company Says It Would Rather Shut Down Than Accept mRNA Injections In Cattle.
• My Wray Or The Hard Wray: New Twitter Files Contradict FBI Director's Testimony.
• Time to plan ATH...and autumn hedges.
• Head Of FTC Confronted About Agency Harassment Of Twitter At Behest Of Democrats.
• Johnstone: The Worst 2024 Election Interference Won't Come From Russia Or China.
• US stocks gained as softer-than-expected PPI data further supported the case for just one more Fed rate hike - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Taibbi: Where Have All The Liberals Gone?
• Retail Money-Market Inflows Continue As Fed Bank Bailout Facility Usage Rises Again.
• Victor Davis Hanson: Ten Reasons Why Affirmative Action Died.
• Stocks and Bonds extend gains on soft PPI and DXY dips south of 100 - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Broke-Buck Mounting After Soft PPI; Crude, Crypto, & The Yield Curve Soar.

Wall Street Journal:  

• A Warning to the C-Suite on Racial Preferences. State Attorneys General warn Fortune 100 companies about their hiring practices.
• Affirmative Action Meets Real Life. I’m a man of the left, but I never cared for the unfairness of racial preferences. 
• Affirmative Action on Campus Goes Beyond Admissions. Racial preferences in faculty hiring is common. Schools that do it are likely to find themselves in the constitutional crosshairs. 
• ‘They’re Coming for Your Cars’. Even if politicians can push us all into e-vehicles, they will have to be small and scarce to achieve emissions goals. 
• ChatGPT Comes Under FTC Probe.
• Xi Chokes Off Crucial Engine of China’s Economy
• The Luxury Tower Built for New York’s Elite Sits Half Empty.
• Best Commodity ETFs.

CNBC.com:

• Meta Threads engagement has dropped off since red-hot debut, tracking firms say.
• Palo Alto Networks CEO says Microsoft has a long way to go on cybersecurity.
• Actors union will join writers on strike, shutting down Hollywood.
• Singapore’s economy grows 0.7% year-on-year in second quarter.
• Australia appoints Michele Bullock as next central bank governor.

MarketWatch:

• St. Louis Fed’s Bullard says has stepped down from his post immediately, will leave in August.
• U.S. stocks just reached another market milestone. Here’s how the S&P 500 could climb even higher.
• Fed’s Waller, unimpressed by inflation data, calls for two more rate hikes this year.
• Some employers mandate etiquette classes as returning office workers walk barefoot, burp loudly and microwave fish.

Newsmax:

• Cruz Hits Wray Testimony: Most Politicized FBI, DOJ.
• WHO: Aspartame Sweeteners 'Possibly Carcinogenic'.
• Ex-AG Whitaker: Wray 'Evasive and Not Helpful'.

Fox News:

• Secret Service reveals another banned substance was found in Biden's White House.
• Transgender cyclist wins race to prove point, rips other trans athletes as 'selfish'
• Dems reportedly prepping quietly to replace Biden after seeing campaign pace.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• In D.C. Non-Citizens Can Now Work as Police Officers.
• Victor Reacts: Shocker! No Cameras Where Cocaine Was Found – Secret Service Concludes Investigation With NO Suspect (VIDEO).
• Attendance at Disney World Sinks in 2023 – CEO and Liberal Media Make Excuses for Theme Park’s Falling Attendance (VIDEO).
• Spiderman Actor Tom Holland Announces Distance from Hollywood: “I Really Do Not Like Hollywood… The Business Really Scares Me” (VIDEO).
• Police Helped Elderly Pastor And His Son Find the Bathroom In The Capitol Building On January 6, Now They Are Facing 3 Years In Prison: ‘This is Outright Intimidation Tactics’… ‘You have No Rights’.
• BRUTAL! Matt Gaetz Catches Dirty FBI Director Chris Wray in Major Lie on Using FISA COURT in Spying on Americans (Video).
• John Kerry Makes Unbelievable Statement on Private Jets as He Lectures Lawmakers (VIDEO).
• Tucker Carlson to Host First GOP Presidential Primary Forum in Iowa on Friday.
• FDA Approves Over-The-Counter Contraceptive Pill.
• “What the Hell Are You!” – Social Media Users Erupt After Major Cosmetics Company Uses Bearded Men to Promote New Product Lines (VIDEO).
• Biden Regime to Crack Down on Air Conditioning to Fight Global Warming – Will Cut HFC Consumption by 40% in Next 4 Years – Get Ready to Boil!
• China was using a Flaw in Microsoft Cloud to Hack on US Government Officials.

The Epoch Times:

• China Developing Brain Control Weapons, Could Pave the Way for New World Order: Report.
• ANALYSIS: The Troubled Reality of China’s EV Industry.
• Xi Jinping Warns of a Ruling Crisis, Fearing CCP Will Share the Fate of the Soviet Union.
• China Perfecting Techno-Totalitarianism for Export Around the World: Rep. Gallagher.

Twitter: 

• @The_Real_Fly - THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION.
• @zerohedge - US CLUSTER MUNITIONS ARE NOW IN UKRAINE, LT. GEN SIMS SAYS. Hong Kong Warns Of Japanese Seafood Ban If Fukushima Dumps Nuke Water Into Ocean. More Black Americans Support Supreme Court Affirmative Action Ruling Than Oppose It: Poll.
• @n8pennell - Who Employs Your Doctor? Increasingly, a Private Equity Firm.
• @TuckerCarlson - Ep. 9 The Andrew Tate interview. (video)
• @TheRightMelissa - In 2014 CBS did a segment applauding Sound of Freedom ’s Tim Ballard’s work against child trafficking. Almost 10 years later the same media is calling the film inspired by his work, “paranoid” “Qanon conspiracy Why? (video)
• @TheWuhanClan - This is so surreal. The socialist Spanish minister uses a private jet to attend a climate conference. 100 metres before the venue she gets out off the limo and takes a bicycle. The security cars follow her. (video)
• @Jikkyleaks - Please watch and share. Assumptions are not science. Lies are not science. Cover ups are not science. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.% to +.% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -1.0 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 61.25 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 112.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 44.0 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.9 +.8%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%.

• S&P 500 futures -.17%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.10%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 unch.
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .34%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.5 -.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 163.2 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.3 -1.77%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -3.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -8.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.01 -30.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 +.71%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 347.9 +.03%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 396.0 +21.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.2 +.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 263.3 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 165.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -2.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 201.3 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.98 +.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 20.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.25 +2.0 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 156.0 -7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 718.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.9 +.53%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 111.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour  -.12%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.8 +2.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -135.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .2 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) -7.0% +13.6 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.23 -.32:  Growth Rate +3.4% -.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.17% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 216.24 +.27: Growth Rate +42.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.9 +1.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .35 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.12 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -88.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.29% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.35% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 83.3%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 71.5%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +370 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Insurance -1.3% 2) Networking -1.0% 3) Energy -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HSAI, CAVA, AZTA, PGR, TGTX, CYRX and VSAT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DM 2) MGM 3) NOK 4) S 5) UNIT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VSAT 2) CVNA 3) CYRX 4) PGR 5) CRL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Gambling +2.3% 2) Internet +2.2% 3) Computer Hardware +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RCEL, RIOT, MARA, COIN, SSYS, ALGM, MLKN, APPS, U, PPC, RDFN, PLUG, TOST, MSTR, NTNX, AB, TTD, CXM, MGM, STAA, DENN and HOOD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BKKT 2) RXRX 3) DLO 4) APP 5) CAR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PPSI 2) CAMT 3) TTD 4) AFRM 5) BCRX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BLK)/8.50
• (C)/1.31
• (JPM)/3.97
• (STT)/2.10
• (UNH)/6.01
• (WFC)/1.15
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.6% decline in May.
• The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -1.9% decline in May.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for July is estimated to rise to 65.5 versus 64.4 in June. 
• Univ. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation Expectations for July is estimated to fall to +3.1% versus a +3.3% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 -.5
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 68.7% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining
• 141 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 57.9%(+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 67.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.2 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,471.7 +.77%
• 1-Day Vix 9.0 -15.3%
  
• Vix 13.5 -.5% 
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -10.6%
• TRIN/Arms .98 -32.2%