Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.05
• (AAL)/1.58
• (BMI)/.65
• (BX)/.93
• (DHI)/2.83
• (FITB)/.83
• (FCX)/.36
• (GPC)/2.34
• (JNJ)/2.62
• (KEY)/.32
• (MAN)/1.62
• (MMC)/2.12
• (NEM)/.41
• (PM)/1.50
• (POOL)/6.17
• (SAP)/1.29
• (SNA)/4.58
• (TRV)/2.05
• (TFC)/1.00
  

After the Close: 

• (OZK)/1.42
• (COF)/3.26
• (CSX)/.49
• (ISRG)/1.33
• (KNX)/.55
• (PPG)/2.13
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 237K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1725K versus 1729K prior.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for July is estimated to rise to -10.0 versus -13.7 in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 4.2M versus 4.3M in May.
• Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.6% versus a -.7% decline in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The PBOC interest rate decision, Japan CPI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (AIR) investment day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +11.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.4 +.2
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 61.6% of Issues Advancing, 35.6% Declining
• 142 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 60.1%(+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 69.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.1 -.02%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,737.5 -.4%
• 1-Day Vix 9.8 +2.2%
  
• Vix 13.5 +1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -1.3%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -17.1%
  

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.25 -1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 60.5 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 112.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.1 -.15%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .38 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.23%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures -.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, More Dovish Fed Hopes, AI Stock Frenzy, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.5 +.15%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.32%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.7 -1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 164.5 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.5 +1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.7 -5.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 -13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -10.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 -9.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.1 -1.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 340.2 -2.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 397.0 +7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.1 -2.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.8 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 109.8 -1.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 202.5 -1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.8 -.62%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 21.75 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 19.75 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 715.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 -.65%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.12%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.1 euros/megawatt-hour  +7.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 68.4 -6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -128.0 +1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.2 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(36 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -1.7 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.50 +.17:  Growth Rate +3.5% unch., P/E 19.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 216.97 +.10: Growth Rate +42.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 37.5 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .42 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.32 -10.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -97.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.39% +10.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.19% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 84.1%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 64.9%(-5.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +332 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.2% 2) REITs -.8% 3) Medical Equipment -.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CCCS, BILI, MASI and APLS
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APLS 2) MLCO 3) RRC 4) SBLK 5) BALL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MASI 2) ABOS 3) FUTU 4) NMTR 5) APLS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Regional Banks +3.8% 2) Software +3.4% 3) Oil Service +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INOD, SCHW, CABA, BBIO, DO, AHCO, AMPH, AMRC, MS, IMVT, NE, ARCB, VITL, MSFT, AVDX, MDB, GENK, RIVN, UBER, PINS, SPWR, BAC, BK, DRQ, SAIA, UCBI, UNH and ENVX
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DM 2) CFG 3) APLS 4) LMT 5) MS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UNH 2) BAC 3) SAIA 4) BBIO 5) ATRO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume