Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -3.1% 2) Regional Banks -3.0% 3) Alt Energy -3.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ARES, NVEI, SSL, MPC, LEGN, DLO, SATS, AGTIN, ODD, FWRD, SPR, DFS, ONON, HE and SE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) HE 2) SE 3) COTY 4) PBR 5) ALLY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DSGN 2) HE 3) ONON 4) SE 5) DFS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Homebuilding +1.3% 2) Pharma +.2% 3) Software unch.
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SLRN, IONQ, ACLX, EVBG, MITK, ASLE, LYFT, TGTX, BLMN, MRVI and FLGT
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ASTL 2) SE 3) IOVA 4) VOD 5) XP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PSFE 2) DHI 3) RSKD 4) NVTS 5) LYFT

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (EAT)/1.32
  • (JD)/4.95
  • (PFGC)/1.14
  • (TGT)/1.43
  • (TJX)/.77
After the Close: 
  • (AVT)/1.65
  • (CSCO)/1.06
  • (SQM)/2.44
  • (SNPS)/2.74
  • (WOLF)/-.20
Economic Releases   
8:30 am EST
  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to rise to 1448K versus 1434K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1466K versus 1440K in June.
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity for Aug.
9:15 am EST
  • Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.5% decline in June.
  • Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 79.1% versus 78.9% in June.
  • Manufacturing Production for July is estimated unch. versus a -.3% decline in June.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,400,000 barrels versus a +5,851,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,500,000 barrels versus a -2,661,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -780,000 barrels versus a -1,706,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.4% versus a +1.1% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • July 26 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits 

  • (AAON) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK CPI report, Eurozone GDP report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +1.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.0 +1.3
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 21.8% of Issues Advancing, 75.8% Declining
  • 23 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
  • 49.5%(-4.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 43.0 -6.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.2 -.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,246.2 +.4%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.0 -6.9%
  • Vix 16.0 +8.2%
  • Total Put/Call .98 +2.1%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.02 -4.7%

Monday, August 14, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
Newsmax: 
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 +11.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 73.0 +8.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 +.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.0 +.7%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -5.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Technical Buying, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 +1.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .47%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.3 -.45%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.9 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +2.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.3 -1.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 -5.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 +23.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.2 +.01%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 327.8 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 342.0 -11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.8 +.15% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 243.6 +2.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.0 +4.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.9 +2.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 -.73%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 746.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.48%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.4 euros/megawatt-hour  -2.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.1 -3.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -78.3 +5.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +6.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) -8.3%  unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.40 +.31:  Growth Rate +7.0% unch., P/E 19.1 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.14 +.60: Growth Rate +41.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.10 -2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -78.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.12% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.81% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 61.0%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 58.9%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long