Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -2.3% 2) Digital Health -2.1% 3) Alt Energy -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DFS, SEDG, CIEN, EAT, FLNG, MODN, ABCM, AMLX, HESM, PSFE, SATS, DEA, SIMO, EXTR, JKHY, TSE, AGTI, ZIM, TSAT, LITE, IONQ, TSEM, RAPT, ARHS and COHR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) COHR 2) AX 3) EWG 4) TSEM 5) TGT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) COHR 2) SPGC 3) VFS 4) SICP 5) ZIM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Insurance +1.3% 2) Steel +.7% 3) Utilities +.6

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GCT, HE, HRB, PFGC, PGR, VITL, MXL, MRCY, QNST, LRN, TJX, X, CEQP, USFD and TGT
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PSX 2) DLO 3) GGAL 4) HE 5) FLR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVOS 2) PGR 3) DLO 4) HRB 5) PFGC
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DOLE)/.34
• (LITE)/.56
• (SPTN)/.64
• (TPR)/.97
• (PLCE)/-2.13
• (WMT)/1.71
  

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/1.74
• (BILL)/.41
• (ROST)/1.16
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 240K versus 248K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1700K versus 1684K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -10.2 versus -13.5 in July.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for July is estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.7% decline in June.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (AAON) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia employment data, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DFS) business update and the (UHAL) analyst meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -8.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 +4.1
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 45.4% of Issues Advancing, 51.1% Declining
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 58 New Lows
• 48.3%(+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 41.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.6 -.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,241.3 -.06%
• 1-Day Vix 11.4 -19.9%
  
• Vix 16.2 -1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.06 +1.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.34 +8.9%
  

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Taiwan’s Election Is All About War.
• Xi Faces More Tough Choices After Surprise China Rate Cut.
• China Is Buying the Most Iranian Oil in a Decade, Kpler Says.
• BlackRock, Fund Managers Brace for Even More Scrutiny Over China.
• Milei to Start Talks With IMF on Argentina $44 Billion Deal.
• Asian Equities Under Pressure After US Stocks Sink: Markets Wrap. 
• European Gas Spikes on Market Jitters Over LNG Strike Risk
• Hawaii Asks Relatives for DNA in Effort to Identify Fire Victims.
• The Federal Reserve’s Interest-Rate Debate Is Shifting.
• The Labor Market’s So Wobbly Even Head Hunters Can’t Forecast Recovery. 
• Maui’s Lahaina Fire Estimated to Cost Insurers $3.2 Billion.
• Sam Bankman-Fried in ‘Disgusting’ Jail That Housed Ghislaine Maxwell.
• Occidental to Buy Canadian Startup Carbon Engineering for $1.1 Billion.
• High-Yield Default Rate to Climb as Pressures Mount, Fitch Says.

Zero Hedge:

• Soros To End 'Most EU Operations' In 'Radical Shift'
• Awkward: Rachel Maddow Calls Out 'Election Deniers' As Hillary Clinton Offers Blank Stare
• Watch: San Francisco Retailers Are Abandoning The City In Droves.
• Biden Announces $39 Billion Student Loans Will Be "Automatically Discharged" Soon.
• 'Stay Home': Feds Tell San Francisco Workers To Telecommute Due To Crime Wave.
• 'Justice Shrugged': The Persecution Of Donald Trump.
• 'Flash-Mob' Daytime Burglaries Strike Southern California Stores.
• US Gas Pump-Prices Surge To 10-Month-Highs.
• "Bearish Positioning No Longer A Tailwind": FMS Finds Wall Street Least Bearish Since Feb 2022.
• When All Crimes Are Those Against The State.
• Taliban Marks 2 Year Anniversary Of Return To Power In Afghanistan With 'Victory' Holiday.
• US stocks declined amid global macro headwinds - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Foreigners Were Behind June S&P Breakout With Record Purchase Of $120 Billion In US Stocks.
• Could WeWork's Potential Bankruptcy Be A Ticking Timebomb For CRE Markets?
• Rickards: Where's The Darn Recession?
• Fulton Flip-Flops On 'Fictitious' RICO Document - Now Claims 'Trial Run'.
• China Busy Hiding Reports Of Flood Damage And Death.
• Fast money & systematic sellers hit the structural bid.
• 'Historic' Biden Spox Makes Surprising Announcement.
• WTI Holds Losses Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.
• Stocks sold despite exuberant retail sales, China weighs heavy - Newsquawk US Market Wrap. 
• Banks, Big-Tech, Bitcoin & Black Gold Breakdown As Beijing Barfs, Builders' Belief Busts.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Steel Takeover Talk Rattles Manufacturers
• China’s Well-Honed Playbook: Cut Rates, Hide Data.
• Trump Fuses Criminal Cases, Election Into One Campaign
• China’s Young, Restless—and Jobless. Beijing won’t publish youth unemployment data as it grows worse.
• More Workers Are Getting Hurt on the Tarmac. ‘It Was Really Frightening.’
• Wall Street Is Ready to Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate on the Cheap.
• Americans Flocked to Cancún for Vacation. Now They're Thinking Twice.
• America Lost a Whole Lot of Millionaires Last Year.
• ‘Blind Side’ Family Calls Former NFL Player’s Claims a ‘Shakedown’.
• UAW Calls Out Slow Progress on Talks With Detroit Automakers.

CNBC.com:

• Regional banks slide after Fed’s Kashkari advocates ‘significantly further’ capital regulation.
• Jeffrey Epstein referred Obama White House counsel to JPMorgan.
• Disney accused of withholding hundreds of millions of dollars from ‘Avatar’ sequel financier
• Apple reverses course, moves iPhone ‘end call’ button back to middle in latest beta
• Cava shares surge as Mediterranean restaurant chain swings to a profit in first report since IPO

MarketWatch:  

• S&P 500 flashes a warning that stocks are likely headed lower after breaking below its 50-day moving average.
• Tesla launches cheaper, shorter-range Model X, Model S EVs.
• A sign of ‘excessive market confidence’ could spell trouble for stocks over next 2 months.

Newsmax:

• Ga. Case Has Problems at Outset, From Jury Picks to a Big Enough Courtroom
• Sen. Johnson: Trump Indictments Travesty of Justice.
• Sen. Tim Scott: Nation's Legal System 'Weaponized'

Fox News:

• Greg Gutfeld on Trump indictments: 'This is the largest political cancellation in history'.
• Larry Elder rips 'incredibly unfair' Trump indictment.
• GOP erupts over 2018 text from Hunter Biden claiming he'd paid dad's bills for 'past 11 years.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• The MSM Smear Machine Turns on Conservative Javier Milei, Most Voted Presidential Candidate in Argentina’s Primary Elections.
• Maui Resident Says We Were Winning Against Fires “Until Water Shut Off” (Video).
• The Muskegon Cover-Up: Gateway Pundit Investigators Visit Registration Fraud Epicenter and Find FBI Has Stalled Investigation and Silenced Officials, No Prosecutions in 3 Years.
• District Attorney Fani Willis Can Be Potentially Removed or Disciplined Based on the Law Signed by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp Three Months Ago.
• Explosive: RFK Jr. Tells Tucker How Fauci’s US Bioweapons Research Caused the Covid Pandemic.
• JUST IN: Fulton County Clerk Releases New Statement on Leaked Trump Docs That Matched Fani Willis’s Indictments and It’s a Doozy.
• Ron DeSantis Reacts to Trump’s Bogus Indictment in Georgia: “As President, We are Going to End the Weaponization of Federal Agencies” (VIDEO).
• Jim Hoft on The War Room: Fani Willis Included Real Moments Of Election Fraud In RICO Case Against Trump (VIDEO).
• Nearly a Fourth of States Introducing Biometric Digital IDs — and More than Half are Republican ‘Red’ States.
• How Convenient: Hawaii Governor Reveals State Plans “to Acquire Land” Ravaged by Wildfires (VIDEO).
• Governor Brian Kemp Responds to President Trump’s Upcoming Press Conference on Election Fraud.
• Joe Biden SMIRKS as He Ignores Reporters Asking For Comment on Rising Death Toll of Maui Wildfires (VIDEO).
• WAYNE ROOT: Now It’s Official. I Know it, You Know it. Everyone Knows It. Trump’s Georgia Indictment is the Final Proof the 2020 Election Was Stolen.
• BREAKING: Trump Announces Press Conference Next Week Where He Will Reveal Fraud in Georgia Election. 
• Wife of Judge Overseeing Trump’s Fulton County Case Donated to Obama, Hillary Clinton and Biden, Follows Them On FB Too.

The Epoch Times:

• GOP Lawmaker Says Chinese Spies Hacked Him.
• China Seeks to Build Military Base in West Africa: Experts.
• No Way Out of China's Property Crisis, Slumping Economy: Analyst.
• Foreign Investors’ Confidence Shaken by China’s Property Crisis.

Twitter: 

• @Truthpole - Apparently Maui Police Officers blockaded the escape and evacuation routes. (video)
• @ClayTravis - The charges against Trump are the exact same ones that were accidentally posted to Atlanta’s Fulton County website ten hours ago, before the grand jury had even voted to indict. The same leak the court labeled “fictitious” a few hours ago. So pathetic. See for yourself.
• @AgentTruthTell3 - THIS CLIP is from the HEARINGS on ELECTION FRAUD in #Georgia in 2020. The SIGNATURES on the BALLOTS do NOT MATCH and WERE CLEARLY FORGED. There were THOUSANDS of these. (video)
• @BonfifaceOption - The conservatives who act like this is all about Trump are beyond contemptible. The man himself does not matter. This is about a lawless Regime who will destroy the country before allowing any opposition to their rule. If you don’t get that, you have no idea what is occurring.
• @kylenabecker -  Tucker Carlson perfectly argues why the Democratic Party no longer bothers to defend its policies and instead prosecutes its political enemies. (Video)
• @TheRightMelissa - GEORGIA Fraud was the worst of all: 2,056 felons illegally voted 66,248 under 18 voted 2,423 weren’t registered at all 1,043 used a PO Box 4,926 voted past the reg. date 10,315 died before the election 395 voted in two states 15,700 moved out of state 40,279 changed county (video)
• @unhealthytruth -  Maui Family chronologically documented escape from Hawaii fires. It just doesn’t make sense……(video)
• @The_Real_Fly - Hawaii governor says state is looking to 'acquire land' that was destroyed in fires.
• @EndWokeness - Anne Andres (biological male) just set a new record for women’s powerlifting. Here is Andres openly mocking real women for not being as good…(video)
• @Travis_in_Flint - Maui has the largest emergency alert siren system in the entire world and for some reason they didn’t activate the alarms? Schools were closed and while parents were at work kids were at home and died. The water system completely failed so people couldn’t keep the fires away from their homes. How does this many “accidents” happen?
• @goddeketal - BOMBSHELL: @TuckerCarlson asked @RobertKennedyJr about the shadowy biolabs in Ukraine. RFK's jaw-dropping answer, if proven true, could shake the very foundations of trust and demands unparalleled consequences for both Anthony Fauci and Ralph Baric. (video)
• @UltraDane - These skilled climate scientists destroy the WEF's narrative of climate change/global warming™ using actual science. The team gathered ice cores from Greenland's 3km deep ice shelf going as far back as the Vikings - and studied it. Here are their results. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 975,114 Reports(+1,518 from prior week) Through July 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.25 +9.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.0 +6.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.28 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.9 -.2%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .17 -12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.8 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Surging European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Financial Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.1 +8.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.2 -.46%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.98 +.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.44 +2.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 22.4 +6.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 +15.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 +5.2%

• NYSE Arms .90 -15.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.1 +1.95%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 322.8 +1.9%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 344.0 +2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 83.3 +1.8% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 244.3 +.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.1 +12.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 215.3 +3.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 748.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.42% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.39%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.8 euros/megawatt-hour +12.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 68.6 -1.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.6 +1.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +5.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) -8.2%  +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.44 +.04:  Growth Rate +7.0% unch., P/E 19.0 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.29 +.15: Growth Rate +41.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .34 -5.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.02 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -73.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.03% +91.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 64.6%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 62.0%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -238 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -98 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/tech/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long