Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.0% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.9% 3) Digital Health -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LOVE, TTEK, FSLR, RBX, HTGC, CAH, FOUR, RMD, OMI, BZH, PYCR, INSP, CAVA, CVS, MSGS, URGN, AHCO, HE and WOLF
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WOLF 2) HE 3) STNE 4) PATH 5) RYAM
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CVS 2) HE 3) WOLF 4) TTOO 5) CI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Energy +1.9% 2) Steel +1.5% 3) Social Media +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LYTS, CHGG, AVT, PLCE, CHK, MRNA, PINS, CSCO, CRGY, DFS and COHR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VITL 2) SNPS 3) NNOX 4) HE 5) CAH

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LYTS 2) TIVC 3) GAMB 4) CHGG 5) AVT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKE)/.81
• (DE)/8.22
• (EL)/-.04
• (VIPS)/3.23
  

After the Close: 

• (PANW)/1.29

Economic Releases   

9:00 am EST

• Bloomberg Aug. US Economic Survey.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (SRE) 2-for-1
• (CPRT) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Construction Spending report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.0 -3.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 41.5% of Issues Advancing, 55.2% Declining
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 52 New Lows
• 46.8%(+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.5 +2.0%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,127.3 -.6%
• 1-Day Vix 12.0 -15.0%
  
• Vix 17.2 +2.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 -22.0%
• TRIN/Arms .75 -20.2%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Shadow Bank Crisis Sparks Protest by Angry Investors.
• China’s Housing Slump Is Much Worse Than Official Data Shows.
• The Messy Afterlife of China’s Covid Health Codes.
• China’s Open for Travel But Few Tourists Are Coming, or Going.
• Rate Cut Wagers Are Fast Disappearing Across Emerging Asia.
• Brazil to Cap Carbon Emissions for Large Polluting Companies.
• RBNZ’s Orr Says Mild Recession ‘Bare Minimum’ to Tame Inflation.
• Argentina’s Milei Vows to Pay Country’s Debt While Shuttering Central Bank.
• Asia Stocks Extend Declines on Fed, China Concerns: Markets Wrap.
• Fed Saw ‘Significant’ Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes.
• Key Takeaways From Fed's July Interest-Rate Meeting Minutes.
• When Fed Cuts Rates, It May Still Be Tightening Via QT Program.
• Summers Sees 10-Year Yields Averaging 4.75% in Coming Decade.
• Goldman Sachs Blames Zero-Day Options for Fueling S&P 500 Selloff.
• Americans Have Almost Depleted Excess Savings.
• Hawaii Fires Hit Regional Bank Already Rocked by Turmoil.
• NYC Bans TikTok From Government Phones on Security Concerns.
• Cornell to Stop Serving Starbucks After Company Shut Down Unionized Cafes. 
• The Midwest Is Ground Zero for the Fight Over Carbon Capture Pipelines.

Zero Hedge:

• Why Is There Such A Frenzy To Buy Up The Properties That Were Just Burned Down During The Fires In Hawaii?
• Harvard University Shows Students How To Milk Welfare System.
• Emails Show Hunter Biden Hired Specialists To Quietly Airbrush Wikipedia: Fang.
• Socialist Scholar Cornel West Owes $500,000 In Taxes.
• Will We Sacrifice DC And New York For Taiwan?
• Cash Crunch Strikes Vornado? Considers Selling Manhattan's Farley Building Amid CRE Turmoil.
• Mark Meadows Wants To Move Georgia Indictment To Federal Court - And Legal Experts Say He'll Succeed.
• The Long Reach Of COVID-19: Unraveling The Cognitive Puzzle Of Recovery.
• Thanks To Government, Maui's Lahaina Fire Became A Deadly Conflagration.
• World's Largest Investor Starts Cutting Tech Exposure, Blames Global Warming For People Not Working In "The Middle Of The Day".
• US stocks extended on declines post-FOMC minutes, despite firm US activity data - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Fired AG Leading Epstein Inquiry Reveals V.I. Governor Pressured Her On Pedophile's Behalf: Fang.
• Beijing Begs Funds Not To Sell Stocks As China Challenges Mount.
• "this is no longer a buy-the-dip market".
• How NewsGuard Became The Establishment Guard Against Independent Media.
• Dollar firms while stocks and bonds slide amid hot US data and FOMC minutes - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Serious & Dangerous: Welcome To The Jackson Pollock School Of (Political) Prosecution.
• Stocks, Bonds, & Commodities Crumble As Dollar Rips On Hawkish Fed Minutes.

Wall Street Journal:

• The 34-Year-Old Judge in Charge of Trump’s Georgia Case.
• Bond Yield Hits Highest Since 2008.
• Bidenomics and the New Political-Subsidy Economy. Government is steering investment now through the Inflation Reduction Act, at the cost of future growth.
• Michigan’s GOP Descends Into Chaos, Echoing National Divide.
• EV Startup VinFast’s Market Debut Pushes Value Higher Than GM, Ford.
• What 7% Mortgage Rates Mean for Home Buyers.

CNBC.com:

• Aldi to acquire Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores in Southern expansion.
• Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show
• Federal judge asks if Elon Musk was trying to ‘cozy up’ to Trump during criminal investigation
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Wolfspeed and more
• Inflation Reduction Act spurs $500 billion in investments, Treasury says.
• Don’t count out more rate hikes due to strong jobs market, former Fed governor Kroszner suggests.

MarketWatch:  

• How higher-for-longer rates are playing out as 10-year yield hits 15-year high.
• Why U.S. stock-market investors need to keep an eye on a weak Japanese yen.
• Housing market has hit ‘rock bottom,’ says Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman.
• Wolfspeed’s stock sinks as silicon-carbide chip company sees swelling losses.
• Cisco logs a strong quarter, pushing stock higher despite cautious full-year guidance.
• Nvidia has ‘monopolized the economics’ of AI, and analysts say its stock can keep cruising.

Newsmax:

• Group Rebukes Inflation Reduction Act on Anniversary.
• Trump Drags Bidenomics as President Biden Marks Inflation Act Anniversary.
• Manchin Vows to Push Back on WH Implementation of IRA.

 Fox News:

• Court changes tune after backlash to massive leak of Trump indictment.
• Anheuser-Busch family heir volunteers to buy back company from current owners.
• Pride month backlash hits Target where it hurts as sales slump.
• Biden tells kids visiting White House he knows where to get ice cream: 'Daddy owes you'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• NEVER FORGET: CBS Breaks the News on Election Night that a Water Pipe Burst in State Farm Arena and Voting Will Be Delayed – WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENED NEXT! (VIDEO).
• Judge Overseeing President Trump’s Bogus Georgia Case, Scott McAfee, Once Worked Under Soros-Funded Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
• Court Filing Reveals Link Between Jeffrey Epstein, Obama’s White House Counsel and JPMorgan Chase.
• Apple Removes ALL of Glenn Beck’s Podcasts From iTunes Ahead of His Show on Biden.
• CHRIS WRAY STRIKES AGAIN! Georgia Election Workers Caught Jamming Stacks of Ballots Through Machines Multiple Times After Observers Removed from Building – CLEARED BY FBI – Jamming Stacks of Selected Ballots Through Voting Machines Is Now Legal in the USA!
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Tucker Carlson: I’ve Talked to CIA and Mob Hitmen Who Were Assigned to JFK Assassination.
• Capt. Seth Keshel Explains About the 2020 Election in the Midwest States (Video).
• MSNBC All Smiles Over Fani Willis Asking for March 4 Trial Date for Trump Case–Eight Days Before Georgia Primary (Video).
• “To H*ll With These People” – Internet Users Lash Out at Woke Snow White Actress After Resurfaced Videos Show Her Making Disgusting Comments About the Disney Classic (VIDEO).
• Target Sales Slide After Company Pushes Trans-Satanist Artist’s Attire for Children.
• Russian Military Leadership Accuses US of Working To Manufacture Another Pandemic.
• Biden to Visit Maui Next Week After Criticism for “No Comment” Beach Vacation.
• “Can’t Comprehend” – Family Shocked as Seemingly Healthy Former Olympic Swimmer Dies Suddenly at Age 43.
• Illinois’ Latest Attack on Free Speech- Gov. Pritzker Signs “Anti-Doxing” Bill.
• Biden Admin Urges Supreme Court to Rule in Favor of Government Elites Censoring Speech of the Misguided Serfs.
  

The Epoch Times:  

• Most Americans Say US Needs to Do More About Chinese Military Threats: Survey.
• Contagion Fears Spread as China Property Sector Cash Crunch Intensifies.
• Rare Earth Elements and National Security: Reclaiming US Control Amid China's Monopoly.

Business Insider:

• China's military claims to have found a way to build a laser weapon that can fire indefinitely.
  

HNGN:

• China Develops Directed Energy Weapons(DEWs) That Could Wreak Havoc on the West's Military, Industrial Equipment. (March 17th, 2022)
  

BreakingDefense.com - 

• Shanahan: China Is Deploying Directed Energy Weapons. (April 9th, 2019) SPACE SYMPOSIUM: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on April 9 bluntly asserted that China’s PLA is “deploying directed energy (DE) weapons,” adding that “Russia is doing many of the same things.”  In perhaps the strongest rhetoric yet from a Trump administration official about counterspace threats to US satellite systems, Shanahan said: “Both China and Russia have weaponized space with the intent to hold American space capabilities at risk.”

Twitter: 

• @AgentTruthTell3 - THIS CLIP is from the HEARINGS on ELECTION FRAUD in #Georgia in 2020. The SIGNATURES on the BALLOTS do NOT MATCH and WERE CLEARLY FORGED. There were THOUSANDS of these. (video)
• @Agent131711 - The Air Force has a DIRECTED ENERGY SITE IN MAUI and the military is running "large scale exercises August 9th - 18th"? (pic)
  
• @politstrip - Glass windows melt at 2552-2912 degrees Fahrenheit The glass plus gone, but not the trees? (pic)
• @RatTaco7 - It takes over 1200° continuous for many minutes in exact area to melt aluminum like this. Yet the pavement/concrete is not scorched at all. The leaves didn't even burn off the trees. (pic)
• @JamesMelville - "How you can think the most important molecule for life - carbon dioxide, which is where all life comes from - could possibly be net negative is beyond the pale. It’s throwing science and logic out the window." - Greenpeace co-founder, Dr. Patrick Moore. (video)
• @The_Real_Fly - BIDEN’S BOARD OF EDUCATION ISSUES HANDBOOK TO COLLEGES TO SKIRT AFFIRMATIVE ACTION LAWS BY LOOKING FOR ESSAYS AND RECOMMENDATION LETTERS THAT MENTION RACE.
• @ReclaimTheNetHQ - X is seemingly working on adding government ID verification with Israeli digital ID company AU10TIX. To verify by ID, users will have to upload a selfie and a photo of their government ID.
• HumanDilemma_ - Maui Police Shut Down Placards Program (Donations & Access) Hours After Launching by “Powers that Be”. (video) More disturbing stories coming out of Maui…(video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 975,114 Reports(+1,518 from prior week) Through July 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.0 +3.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 75.5 -3.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.2 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.4 +.3%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 20.0 -12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 -.34%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.81%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on China Economy Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.2 -1.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .71%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.0 -.04%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.29 +.23%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.4 -.64%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.3 +.69% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 157.0 +48.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -9.5%

• NYSE Arms .84 -31.7%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.1 +1.47%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.09 -1.09%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 +7.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.2 +1.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 245.57 +.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 170.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.4 +5.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 214.7 -.69%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.75%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.6 +3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -66.7 +8.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) -8.0%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.56 +.12:  Growth Rate +7.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 232.88 +.59: Growth Rate +41.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.2 -.7
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .35 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.03 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -73.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% +73.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 61.0%(unch.) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 58.9%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +48 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -95 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On loses in my medical/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long