Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 4,366.6 -2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 34,534.7 -2.3%

• NASDAQ 13,316.4 -2.6%

• Russell 2000 1,861.5 -3.3%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,302.5 -3.2% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 34.7 -8.2%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 150.70 -7.4%

• Wilshire 5000 43,701.5 -2.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,694.2 -2.1%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,541.94 -2.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 766.49 -2.5%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,218.86 -.18%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,557.7 -2.3%

• Transports 15,710.0 -3.1%

• Utilities 878.60 -1.8%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.60 -2.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.5 -2.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 194.25 +.72%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.3 -.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 460,161 -1.6%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 -19.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -551 -452
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.6 -4.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 255,928 +5.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,703,711 -2.8%

• Total Put/Call 1.18 +13.9%

• OEX Put/Call 1.13 -16.4%

• ISE Sentiment 87.0 -20.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.02 +24.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -3.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .22 -17.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.09 -1.0 basis point
  

• Volatility(VIX) 17.4 +19.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .83% -.01%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 25.1 +18.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.42 +5.3%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.16 +2.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,865.7 -4.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  59.9 -5.6
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.570 Trillion +.72%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$9.974 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.9 -19.7%

• AAII % Bears 30.1 +18.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 274.39 -1.9%

• Crude Oil 81.3/bbl. -1.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 281.94 -3.6%

• Natural Gas 2.55 -8.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
  

• Heating Oil 315.81 +1.74% 
• Newcastle Coal 160.0 (1,000/metric ton) +3.9%
  

• Gold 1,889.27 -1.4%
• Silver 22.75 +.03%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 404.75 -.95%

• Copper 370.80 -.50%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 366.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne +4.9%

• CME Lumber  532.50 +6.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,578.42 +.19%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 322.5 USD/Short Ton +1.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.76% +164.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.8% -.8 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.12 -12.5%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 89.33 +29.7%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -7.5% +.8 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.92 +.83:  Growth Rate +7.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 -.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.53 +1.99: Growth Rate +42.3% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 31.4 -1.5
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.6 +3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +20.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +1.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 90.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 9.5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 9/20
  

• US Dollar Index 103.3 +.49%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,664.99 -.75%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 25,947.8 -11.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.13 -.52%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -67.5 +6.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.25% +9.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.109 Trillion -.76% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $1.831 Billion -14.1%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.8 +15.9%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.6 +6.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 +8.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.1 +1.2%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.69 +35.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 189.9 +10.5%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.8 -.50%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.69 +20.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -2.35%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 74.01 -4.2%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.6% -.5 percentage point
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +4.9% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.0% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.2% unch.: CPI YoY +3.8% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32% -5.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 20.75 -.25 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 70.89 +7.2%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 192.0 +1.24% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +14.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 88.19 +8.5%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 244.7 -1.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 222.19 +10.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 +7.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .69 +1.0 basis point
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,166.3 -.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 234,250 +1.2%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.3 -2.7%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.60% +14.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 193,000 -.77%

• Weekly Retail Sales +.5% +70.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% unch.
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross YoY $95.6M -18.0%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.87/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,247.0 +10.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 889.5 +1.7%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.5 -8.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 36.5 -7.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 248,086 -.66%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,591,257 +11.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.1%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.6%

Leading Sectors

• Shipping unch.

• Pharma -.24%
• Insurance -.82%
  

• Steel -1.0%
  

• I-Banking -1.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -5.5%
  

• Gold & Silver -6.3%
  

• Regional Banks -6.3%

• Digital Health -6.9%
  

• Alt Energy -7.3%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)

• DLB, BILL, BLMN, ROST, LYTS, MRCY and GNRC
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)

• EL, WOLF, BZH, DE, JD, HSAI, BILI, DOLE, VIPS, ATAT, EH and KEYS
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on China Economy Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Technical Selling, Metals & Mining/Medical Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .83%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.1 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.99 -.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.16 -.87%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 25.7 -.39% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.15 +1.77%

• NYSE Arms 1.07 +64.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.99 +1.14%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 340.9 +.13%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 +6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.6 +2.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 262.9 +5.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.8 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.94 +1.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.73 -.62%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.25 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 69.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.43% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 104.9 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 77.6 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +2.0 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +1.0 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(471 of 500 reporting) -7.5%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.92 +.15:  Growth Rate +7.1% unch., P/E 18.6 -.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.14% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.53 +.29: Growth Rate +42.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -67.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 65.0%(+7.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 60.7%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -94 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• (FN)/1.80
• (NDSN)/2.32
• (ZM)/1.06
  

Economic Releases   

• None of note
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (SRE) 2-for-1
• (CPRT) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PPI report could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +6.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.6 -2.4
  
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 61.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining
• 8 New 52-Week Highs, 78 New Lows
• 44.4%(+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -2.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 16,988.5 -.76%
• 1-Day Vix 13.2 -17.5%
  
• Vix 17.8 -.6%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.12 -.88%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +30.8%
  

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s State Developers Warn of Major Losses as Crisis Spreads.
• China Police Visit Shadow Bank Investors at Home to Quash Unrest.
• China’s Abandoned, Obsolete Electric Cars Are Piling Up in Cities.
• Japan’s Deeper Inflation Trend to Keep BOJ on Edge Over Prices.
• Asia Stocks Fall on Amplified China, Fed Worries: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Heads for Weekly Loss as China Concerns and Rate Angst Flare.
• Goldman Plans Hiring Spree to Fix Lapses After Fed Scrutiny.
• US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades.
• US Weighs Long-Term Debt Requirements on More Banks.
• Biden’s Spending Ignited Inflation That Fed Can’t Stop, Doug Burgum Says.
• Instacart Plans for September IPO in Boost for US Listings. 
• Hedge Fund Woodline Sued for ‘Oppressive, Misogynistic’ Culture.
• Americans Keep On Spending But Big Retailers Doubt It’ll Last.
• ‘Poor Man’s Cocaine’ Costing $3 a Pill Threatens to Proliferate.
• Applied Materials Gives Strong Forecast as Chip Slump Eases.
• BofA’s Warning of a ‘5% World’ Sinks in With Yields Pushing Higher.

Zero Hedge:

• Vivek Ramaswamy Warns Tucker Carlson: This Country Is "On The Cusp Of Chaos... In A 1776 Moment".
• GOP Demands Biden Emails Using Pseudonym After Hunter CC'd On Ukraine Call. 
• How Did Big Pharma Buy So Many Governments?
• Project Veritas Implodes Six Months After Firing James O'Keefe.
• Child Social Media Stars Can Now Sue 'Influencer' Parents Under New Illinois Law.
• California Braces As Hilary Upgraded To 'Major Hurricane'.
• Student Loan Payments To Exceed Mortgage For Some Borrowers.
• China Imports The Most Iranian Oil In A Decade.
• 9/11 Families Told That Plotters May Not Face Death Penalty.
• Leftist Establishment Dismayed By Rise Of "Populist" Candidate In Argentina.
• Bitcoin Flash Crashes More Than $2,000 Amid Stale Reports SpaceX Sold Its Stake.
• US stock selling persisted - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• AI & The Peculiar Unreality Of Spectacle.
• Spree Of Robberies, Car Thefts Drive Chicago Crime To New Highs.
• Banks' Usage Of Emergency Fed Funds Hits New Record High.
• Stocks and bonds slide again with Dollar flat as Yuan and Yen outperform - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Victor Davis Hanson On Trump Indictments: "Coordinated Effort To Destroy Him As A Candidate".
• 'Streamflation' Bites As Searches To Cancel Hulu And Disney+ Erupt Nationwide.
• Nobody knows nothing.
• Bonds, Stocks, Bitcoin, & Bullion Battered As Yuan & The Yield-Curve Rally.

Wall Street Journal:

• Lahaina Worries About Real-Estate Speculators After Fire Destruction.
• DEI Dies in the Desert. Arizona chooses academic freedom over ideological conformity.
• Mortgage Rates Hit Highest Level in More Than 20 Years.
• A Rare Look Into the Finances of Musk’s Secretive SpaceX.
• Too Many Vacant Lots, Not Enough Housing: The U.S. Real-Estate Puzzle.
• China Evergrande Seeks U.S. Court Approval for $19 Billion Debt Restructuring.
• Why Child-Care Prices Are Rising at Nearly Twice the Overall Inflation Rate.

CNBC.com:

• 10-year yield rises to highest level since October 2022.
• Bitcoin abruptly tumbles as much as 9% to just over $26,000 late Thursday
• Walmart and Target face similar problems — but only one is thriving
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Applied Materials, Ross Stores and more.
• Here’s why Americans can’t stop living paycheck to paycheck.

MarketWatch:  

• Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since Great Recession.
• ‘King dollar’ makes a comeback as greenback’s summertime rally nears critical milestone.
• Treasury market returns are negative again. Why this time for bonds looks different than 2022.
• China Evergrande files for Chapter 15 bankruptcy: reports
• Global investors expect China to deliver a massive fiscal stimulus. Here’s why it may never arrive. 
• San Francisco asks state regulators to pause robotaxi rollout, reassess approval.
• Why Treasury yields keep rising, causing pain for stock-market investors.
• Traders brace for explosion of volatility Friday as $2.2 trillion in stock options expire.

Newsmax:

• US Approves Sending F-16s to Ukraine Via Denmark and The Netherlands.
• Authorities Probe Threats to Ga. Grand Jurors Who Indicted Trump.

 Fox News:

• Biden angers Americans with refusal to offer details about his trip to Hawaii: 'Buffoon'.
• Georgia state senator moves toward impeaching DA Fani Willis over Trump charges.
• Biden’s Dept. of Injustice ruins faith in a system even crooks used to respect.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Report Shows GBI Strategies as Part of Massive Left-Wing Dark Money Voting Operation by Democrats in 2020 Election.
• NEWT GINGRICH: I Am Told Someone From DC Called Fani Willis on Friday and Demanded She Indict Trump on Monday to Cover Up Weiss “Screw Up” (VIDEO).
• A NATIONAL DISGRACE: Photos Leaked of Horrific January 6 Prisoner Abuse – Tortured 5 Months in Isolation in a Closet Room with Light on and a Bucket for a Toilet — Where are the ACLU, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch?
• “Stay Tuned” – O’Keefe Media Group to Drop Explosive Update to Undercover Reporting on Illegal Voter Registration in Fulton County, Georgia.
• Pro Surfer Kai Lenny in Maui: “I Haven’t Seen One State, County, or Federal Official at Any of the Donation Hubs Where People Are Most Suffering” (VIDEO).
• Powder Keg Europe: Poland, Lithuania and Latvia To Shut NATO Borders With Belarus – Increasingly Militarized Poland Says Lukashenko Will Try To Disrupt Its Elections.
• WHAT? Biden Wants to Give $500 Million of US Taxpayer Money to the Socialist Lula da Silva to “Save” the Amazon in Brazil.
• General Michael Flynn Comments on Torture of J6 Prisoners Held in Isolation for Months in Closet Cells.
• Joe Hoft on The War Room: The 2020 Election Depended Just As Much On The Cover-Up as It Did on the Steal (VIDEO).
• You Can’t Make This Up: Maui’s Emergency Operations Chief Has No Background in Disaster Response – Offers Absurd Excuse for Not Activating Sirens During Wildfire (VIDEO).
• Joe Biden AGAIN Callously Brushes Off Question on Deadly Maui Fires (VIDEO).
• Biden Negotiating Sweetheart Deal for 9-11 Terrorist Masterminds Who Murdered 2,996 Americans – As J6 Political Prisoners Are Tortured in US Prison Closet Cells. 
• Ukraine War Update: Russia Got Richer While West Shed Trillions of Dollars – US Lost $5.9 Trillion.
• JUST IN: James Comer Reveals List Of Pseudonyms Joe Biden Used As VP – Demands National Archives Hand Over ALL Un-Redacted Records of “Robert L. Peters” aka Joe Biden.
• Flashback: Auditor Geels: After Georgia Election – Secretary of State Raffensperger Still Refuses to Address Lawsuit on Irregularities of 2020 Election.

The Epoch Times:

• The Specter of Decoupling Haunts Beijing.
• China, Saudi Arabia Cut US Debt Holdings in Anti-Dollar Push: Treasury Data.
• Republicans Unfocused in Strategy Against China.

NY Post:

• Experts say green laser beams spotted off Hawaii came from Chinese satellite.(Feb. 11, 2023)
  

Business Insider:

• China's military claims to have found a way to build a laser weapon that can fire indefinitely.
  

HNGN:

• China Develops Directed Energy Weapons(DEWs) That Could Wreak Havoc on the West's Military, Industrial Equipment.
  

BreakingDefense.com - 

• Shanahan: China Is Deploying Directed Energy Weapons. (April 9th, 2019) SPACE SYMPOSIUM: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan on April 9 bluntly asserted that China’s PLA is “deploying directed energy (DE) weapons,” adding that “Russia is doing many of the same things.”  In perhaps the strongest rhetoric yet from a Trump administration official about counterspace threats to US satellite systems, Shanahan said: “Both China and Russia have weaponized space with the intent to hold American space capabilities at risk.”

Twitter:

• @Agent131711 - The Air Force has a DIRECTED ENERGY SITE IN MAUI and the military is running "large scale exercises August 9th - 18th"? (pic)
• @Resist_05 - Lahaina Hawaii… only the beachfront properties were saved, whilst downtown Lahaina that developers have tried to buy out was completely wiped out. (video)
• @HumanDilemma_ - Hawaiian official M. Kaleo Manuel refused to release water in Maui as the fire raged. Manuel is deputy director of the Department of Land and Natural Resources. Here he is explaining that water should be revered, not used. (video) Maui Police BAN PRESS From Documenting The Enormous & Suspicious Obliteration Of The City. (video)
• @AndreiConstance - Cops blocking in the people of Lahaina from making escape from imminent danger! Justice for Maui! (video)
• @DakotaSidwell - BREAKING NEWS. The US Space force just created its first unit dedicated to targeting other nations satellites. Now why would that be necessary? 
• @BigFish3000 - John Fredricks obliterates Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp claim election was fair. (video)
• @BehizyTweets - BREAKING: More BOMBSHELL footage of Duplicated ballots that counted in the Fulton County 2020 election has been released by reporter @TalkMullins. This time you see duplicated ballots that counted for Fani Willis. No wonder she's going after Trump. (video)
• @AgentTruthTell3 - REMINDER #TuckerCarlson on @FoxNews when he EXPOSED the 2020 ELECTION FRAUD in #Georgia. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 975,114 Reports(+1,518 from prior week) Through July 28th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.75 +5.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.75 +4.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 71.3 +.97%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 7.0 -11.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Rising Long-Term Rates, Surging China Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Homebuilding/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.6 +2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.1 -.17%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.32 -.53%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.5 +.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .93 -26.8%

• NYSE Arms .70 -25.5%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.2 +2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 335.38 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 361.0 +10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.6 +2.9% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 249.7 +1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 171.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.5 +7.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 219.1 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.83 -.34%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 180.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 745.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 68.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.33 +.09%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.7 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 78.9 +7.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.9 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) -7.7%  +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.77 +.21:  Growth Rate +7.1% unch., P/E 18.7 -.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% +4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.24 +.36: Growth Rate +42.2% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.7 -.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.03 unch.
  
• US Yield Curve -67.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 59.7%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Dec. 13th meeting: 57.7%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/tech sector longs and index hedges
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long