Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.6% 2) Airlines -2.2% 3) Electric Vehicles -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• APO, PDD, FNV, HTLD, NTR, AMGN, KMPR, TECH, IGT, WK, DCPH, AESI, VNO, DIOD, BP, Z, CAT, HUBB, ZG, HAYW, RGNX, FMC, CEIX, ELF, ZI, VFC, LSCC, CTLT and SRPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) JBLU 2) TAL 3) PINS 4) APO 5) WDC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAT 2) PFE 3) VFC 4) JBLU 5) SRPT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +2.9% 2) Defense +1.6% 3) Cyber Security +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• VERV, WOLF, SSTK, PINS, RGEN, GVA, TWO, COCO, ANET, BEAM, HLIT, VRNS, NSP, MPWR, CYTK, XYL, GEHC, NRDS, QTWO, CRK, AMKR, SRC and GPK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SRPT 2) GNRC 3) PINS 4) ZI 5) ANET

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ANET 2) COCO 3) PINS 4) ARDX 5) OTTR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AVA)/.14
• (BLCO)/.19
• (EAT)/.06
• (GOOS)/-.16
• (CVS)/2.13
• (DD)/.84
• (EL)/-.21
• (FDP)/.42
• (GNRC)/1.55
• (GSK)/1.11
• (HUM)/7.16
• (IDXX)/2.37
• (KHC)/.66
• (NCLH)/.68
• (SMG)/-2.88
• (SPWR)/-.01
• (WAY)/-.48
• (WING)/.52
• (YUM)/1.27
  

After the Close: 

• (AFL)/1.49
• (ABNB)/2.11
• (ALB)/3.77
• (ALL)/.45
• (CAR)/14.18
• (BXP)/1.84
• (CHRW)/.81
• (CF)/1.02
• (CAKE)/.43
• (CLX)/-.24
• (CTSH)/1.09
• (DASH)/-.40
• (ELF)/.53
• (EIX)/1.44
• (EA)/1.25
• (ETSY)/.50
• (EXAS)/-.47
• (HLF)/.73
• (HST)/.35
• (IR)/.69
• (LMND)/-.94
• (MTW)/.06
• (MRO)/.72
• (MCK)/6.13
• (MET)/1.95
• (MSTR)/.30
• (MDLZ)/.78
• (PYPL)/1.23
• (PRU)/3.13
• (QCOM)/1.91
• (ROKU)/-2.04
• (STAA)/.13
• (RGR)/.88
• (SUM)/.75
• (SMCI)/3.27
• (WERN)/.49
• (WMB)/.41
• (ZG)/.22
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Oct. is estimated to rise to 150K versus 89K in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Sept. is estimated to fall to 9400K versus 9610K in Aug.
• ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated at 49.0 versus 49.0 in Sept.
• ISM Prices Paid for Oct. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 43.8 in Sept.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,480,800 barrels versus a +1,372,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -593,200 barrels versus a +156,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,584,000 barrels versus a -1,686,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.28% versus a -.5% decline prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.25-5.5%.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 15.6M versus 15.67M in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC press conference, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (KLAC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.8 -.3
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 71.8% of Issues Advancing, 25.6% Declining
• 9 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
• 27.0%(+5.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 +4.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.8 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,868.9 -.72%
  
• 1-Day Vix 15.0 -7.8%
  
• Vix 19.1 -3.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -12.0%
• TRIN/Arms 1.20 -15.5%
  

Tuesday Watch

 Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.5 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 82.0 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 121.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.47%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.1 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.2 +2.7%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 -2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.05%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/q.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.14%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Mid-East Regional War Fears, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Transport/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.8 -6.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .80% -43.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.2 +2.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.8 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.22 -.72%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 32.2 -7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +23.0
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -26.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -25.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.65 -.37%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 370.30 -1.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 365 +19
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.40 -.86% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.19 -.16%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 192.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.7 +.43%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 233.0 -2.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 142.34 -1.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.59 +.16%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 19.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 185.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 921.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 96.0 +3.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.33 +.21%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.63%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.5 euros/megawatt-hour unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.4 +2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.6 +3.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.1 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(252 of 500 reporting) +5.7% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.54 +.39:  Growth Rate +9.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 17.3 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.15% +4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +51.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 272.13 +2.26: Growth Rate +60.5% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 26.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 +9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.12 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve -16.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 74.1%(-5.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 66.6%(-2.9 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -61 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +109 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/transport/industrial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long