Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ASO)/1.22
  

After the Close: 

• (CASY)/1.72
• (ORCL)/1.65
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated at 89.7 versus 89.7 in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (APH) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 10Y T-Note auction, OPEC Monthly report, EIA short-term energy outlook report, API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, (NEE) investor day, (NTAP) investor day, (HUBS) annual meeting, (IAC) annual meeting, (FCX) annual meeting, (ULTA) annual meeting, (CZR) annual meeting, Evercore ISI Consumer/Retail Conference, RBC Fintech Conference, Deutsche Bank Auto Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference and the Wells Fargo Industrials Confernece could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.5 -.2
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 44.6% of Issues Advancing, 52.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .76 -22.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$258.7M
  
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
• 54.2% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.1 +1.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.8 -.15%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,078.4 +.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 7.8 -16.7%
  
• Vix 12.8 +5.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 +7.1%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.5 unch.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 64.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.2 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.1 +3.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.44%.
• S&P 500 futures -.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Brazil Finance Chief Remarks Fuel Fiscal Worries, Roiling Assets.
• Gold Slumps as China’s Central Bank Halts 18-Month Buying Spree.
• OPEC+ Plan Turns Hedge Funds Least Bullish on Crude in a Decade.
• Treasury Yields Surge as Jobs Spark Rethink on Fed.
• Risk Appetites Roaring Anew in Wall Street’s Unflappable Markets.
• US Household Net Worth Rises to Record as Stocks Keep Climbing.
• Trump Ally Bessent Says Yellen Using Post to Aid Biden 2024 Bid.
• America’s War Machine Can’t Make Basic Artillery Fast Enough. 
• Here’s Everything Apple Plans to Show at Its AI-Focused WWDC Event.
• David Sacks Tried the 2024 Alternatives. Now He’s All-In on Trump.

Zero Hedge:

• Mistrial? Trump 'Hush Money' Judge Suggests Juror May Have Had Predetermined Guilty Verdict.
• Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Years. 
• Is Fast Food Affordable Anymore? A Detailed Look At Menu Prices Over The Years.
• US Army's Failure-Prone Pier Connected To Gaza Beach Again After Breaking Apart.
• Term "Gynecologist" Offensive, According To Scholars.
• Is The Electric Vehicle Panacea Crashing In California And America?
• Internet Addiction In Adolescents Can Negatively Affect Brain Function: Study.
• Roaring Kitty Ends Bizarre Livestream As GameStop Crashes.
• Obese Woman Wins Miss Alabama And People Have Questions.
• US Domestic Bank Deposits Tumble As Money-Market Fund Assets Near Record-High Again.
• "They Can't Afford To Lose Their Grip On The Levers Of Power...".
• Hot NFP sees traders pare Fed rate cut bets ahead of CPI and FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Payrolls Malarkey & Pussy Meltdown Prompts Market Mayhem.
• Trump Has Raised $400 Million In One Week.
• Shock Decline In Credit Card Debt Is First Since Covid Crash, As Card APRs Hit New All Time High.

Wall Street Journal: 

• How Many Trillions Will You Pay for Electric Vehicles? Political fantasies keep crashing into automotive reality.
• Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here.
• The Hidden Life of Google’s Secret Weapon.
• No One Wants a New Car Now. Here’s Why.
• U.N. Plan to Cite Israel Over Harm to Children Draws Condemnation From Netanyahu.
• It’s a Buyer’s Market for Boats, RVs and Other Pandemic Toys.
• AI May Not Be What Sells Apple’s Next iPhone.
• Asia’s Chip Giants Hustle to Maintain Their Edge Over the U.S.

CNBC:

• Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report.
• Synapse bankruptcy trustee says $85 million of customer savings is missing in fintech meltdown.
• Nadella, Narayen among tech CEOs investing in cricket’s American dream.
• Microsoft says AI feature that captures screenshots on new PCs will be off by default after backlash.
• 31-year-old built a company that could bring in $48 million this year—all due to olive oil.
• United Airlines starts serving passengers personalized ads on seat-back screens.
• Waystar shares slip in Nasdaq debut after digital health company priced IPO in middle of range.

MarketWatch.com:

• GameStop’s stock suffers worst day since 2021 despite Roaring Kitty livestream.
• CrowdStrike, KKR and GoDaddy to join S&P 500.
• AMD’s stock hasn’t been feeling the love. Here’s why that could change. 
• Massachusetts securities regulator ‘looking into’ Roaring Kitty’s activities.
• Nearly 9 in 10 people say it’s a bad time to buy a house as ‘consumers struggle to find the positives’.

NewsMax: 

• Biden Aide: May Increase US Nuke Deployment to Counter Foreign Threats. 

Fox News:

• Silicon Valley giant speaks out after endorsing Trump, demolishing fundraising goal.
• Key swing state race heats up as Democrats say goodbye to decades-long advantage.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Heavily Armed Federal Agents Show Up at Home of Texas Doctor After He Blew Whistle on Sex-Change Program at Texas Children’s Hospital, Serve Him Federal Indictment.
• CNN Anchor Asks Potential Vice President Dr. Ben Carson if He Will Accept 2024 Election Results and His Response is Perfect (VIDEO).
• JUST IN: Minnesota Jury Finds Five of Seven Somali Defendants Guilty in $250 Million Covid Fraud Scheme After Juror Bribed with Bag of Cash.
• A German and a Polish Policemen Stabbed to Death by Migrants as the Unchecked Mass Migration Scourge Hits Central and Eastern Europe.
• OP-ED) President Trump Was Right: The True RINO Versus MAGA Threat is the Enemy from Within.
• UPDATE: Kansas City Chiefs Lineman Who Suffered Cardiac Arrest During Team Meeting Still Unconscious.
• UPDATE: Transgender Psychopath Killer Audrey Hale Reportedly Used Federal Pell Grant Funds to Purchase Weapons to Kill Children.
• “Enough Is Enough!” – Swiss Cardiologist Calls for the Abolishment of the WHO (Video).
• Army Officer Experiences ‘Inexplicable’ Symptoms After Being Forced to Take the COVID-19 Shot, While the Department of Defense Continues to Evade Accountability.
• Nashville Covenant School Trans Shooter’s Manifesto Leaked: Transgender Killer Audrey Hale Wrote About Her ‘Imaginary Penis’ and How She Would ‘Kill’ to Get Puberty Blockers.
• As California Faces Massive Deficit, Newsom Proposes Reducing Funding For Police, Prisons, And Public Safety.
• Fox News Cameras Show the Real Impact of Biden’s Border Executive Order.
• Google Snubs 160,000 Men Who Landed at Normandy 80 Years Ago, Instead Celebrates ‘Lesbian Chicana Activist’ on D-Day.
• THEY HATE YOU: Democrat Congressional Candidate Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, Proposes RE-EDUCATION CAMPS for Trump Supporters.
• Steve Bannon Has Always Stood with All of Us — Today We Are Asking American Patriots to Stand with Steve Bannon.

Epoch Times:

• China’s Top Spy Agency Enlists the Entire Nation.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• ESG is a corrupted lie. It needs to end.

• @libsoftiktok

• Bailey Anne is a male who just won miss Maryland while pretending to be a woman. It's hard to feel bad for the women when they just watch and clap... Women, stand up and speak out!! Do not let your spaces and titles be taken over by men! (video)

• @JackPosobiec
  

• Here is Merrick Garland telling reporters he doesn't need to respond to Congressional subpoenas he decides are not legitimate. He is currently throwing Steve Bannon behind bars for not responding to the J6 Committee subpoena. (video)
  

• @robbystarbuck

• Big news. NY Supreme Court reportedly told Judge Merchan that a relative of a juror made a comment on Facebook the day before the verdict saying that they were told that the Jury would convict Trump. Merchan notified all parties. If true, this is likely headed to a mistrial because a juror isn’t allowed to discuss the case with family or friends like this. Big deal. (pic)

• @CollinRugg

• NEW: 39-year-old man starts shooting at random cars in San Jacinto, California, killing a father of four. Julio Rodarte was arrested on suspicion of murder and 10 counts of attempted murder after firing off 30 shots & taking his clothes off. The despicable act was triggered after Rodarte reportedly tried buying a shot of liquor at a nearby market but didn’t have enough money.

• @WallStreetApes

• The Most Corrupt Government In History. JUST IMAGINE IF THIS WAS DONALD TRUMP, They’d Be Screaming Foreign Government. “ A single anonymous donation of $64,000,000 that helped Joe Biden get elected in 2020”. (video)
• This Is Deep. How Many People In America Feel This EXACT SAME Way? “I'm done in America. I'm so sick and tired of this country. Sick and tired of turning on the news and seeing our president barely be able to put 2 freaking words together and we're supposed to believe that he's signing our executive orders. (video) 
• This Is Concerning. We’re Definitely In An Election Year. Large Shipping Containers Being Dropped Off In American Neighborhoods & Then Guarded By The Police. “These shipping containers that are hauling military equipment. If you try to even go near there, cops will start coming, and they will try to steal your footage. This is no joke. I'm putting my life on the line to bring you guys this footage”. (video)
  

• @VigilantFox 

• Ex-CDC Director: Vaccine Mandates Were a ‘Terrible Decision’. Dr. Robert Redfield says vaccine mandates were “emotional” and not based on science. He pointed out that there was no rationale for mandating the shots on healthy, young people. The govt overreached again when it dismissed natural immunity and mandated shots on the COVID-recovered, Dr. Redfield says. (video)

• @TonyClimate

• More than half of US temperature data is now fabricated by @NOAA - i.e. coming from a computer model rather than a thermometer. (graph)

• @newstart_2024

• Mexican Health Secretary Jorge Alcocer on Thursday denied an announcement by the World Health Organization (WHO) that a man’s death in Mexico was caused by a strain of bird flu that had never before been found in a human. During a morning briefing, Alcocer rebuffed the WHO’s announcement and assured that the 59-year-old man, who was reported to have died from the A(H5N2) strain of avian influenza, “died from other causes, mainly kidney and respiratory failure.” Alcocer urged people to remain calm and to take the WHO’s announcement with caution because it is "not accurate."
• Jesse Watters: "Fauci's junk science ruined millions of lives in order to force people to get vaccinated...Fauci had a financial interest in force feeding the vaccine, his scientists made almost a billion Dollars in royalties from pharmaceutical companies during the pandemic. And Fauci lied about how effective the vaccine was. (video)
  

• @The_Real_Fly
  

• Americans are quite literally being replaced in the jobs market. (graph)

• @wendyp4545

• If you're still scratching your head wondering how Whitmer was reelected after the hell she put the people in the State of Michigan through? 302,380 ballots from ghosts might be the answer to your questions. (pic)

• @JimFergusonUK

• Alert: Bill Gates and his WEF globalist parasites have persuaded ALDI to sell insects to the masses. The Globalist parasites continue to dehumanise humanity in their push to make the masses into peasants while they act as our overlords. Time to get on board with http://freedomtraininternational.org so you don't have to eat bugs. Let Klaus Schwab and his globalist chums eat insects and rats. (video)
  

• @Cernovich

• Biden regime indicts whistle blower who exposed experiments on children for violating of privacy of the victims. You can’t make this up, pure evil.

• @TONYxTWO

• This is insane!! Dr. Phil shows how Chinese Government has funded buying major farmland and how’s it’s conveniently located next to our most strategic military bases here in the U.S. This is scary! This is a National Security Risk! Why is our government allowing this?? (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,010,545 Reports(+992 from prior report) Through April 26th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Industrial Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.47 -.34%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.5 +5.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.1 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 -1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.25 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.2% unch., P/E 20.7 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 330.43 +.14: Growth Rate +23.2% unch., P/E 32.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.00 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.6% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 53.7% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 91.1%(+12.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 51.0%(+17.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

11:00 am EST

• NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (NVDA) 10-for-1
• (APH) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for May, 3Y T-Note auction, (AAPL) WWDC, (NEE) investor day, Well Fargo Industrials conference, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E Commerce Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials/Payments/CRE Conference, Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference, RBC FinTech Conference,  and the Deutsche Bank Auto Industry Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST