Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Semis +1.5% 3) Gambling +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SILK, NRIX, NNE, LZB, CHWY, ITCI, CATX, PDCO, AMKR, ATRC, LMND, ELF, ARM, CELH, DELL, QNST, HIMS, SIX, LNW, TOST, IMAX, LNG, SMCI, TALO, BROS, IOT, ONTO and OLLI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) STX 2) TSEM 3) BBY 4) CORT 5) JBL

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LZB 2) ASNS 3) RKLB 4) SILK 5) NRIX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) SOXX 5) XLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (SCS)/.10
• (ACN)/3.16
• (CMC)/1.02
• (DRI)/2.61
• (GMS)/2.04
• (JBL)/1.85
• (KR)/1.36
• (WGO)/1.32
  

After the Close: 

• (SWBI)/.35

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Current Account Deficit for 1Q is estimated to widen to -$206.8B versus -$194.8B in 4Q. 
• Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 235K versus 242K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1810K versus 1820K prior.
• Housing Starts for May is estimated to rise to 1370K versus 1360K in April.
• Building Permits for May is estimated to rise to 1450K versus 1440K in April.
• Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for June is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 4.5 in May.
  

11:00 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,981,830 barrels versus a +3,730,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +617,500 barrels versus a +2,566,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +714,500 barrels versus a +881,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a -.4% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (BBSI) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DAL) annual meeting, (PVH) annual meeting, (BIIB) annual meeting, (DASH) annual meeting, (OKTA) annual meeting, (EBAY) annual meeting, (CAVA) annual meeting, (DLTR) annual meeting and the TD Cowen Genetic Medicines/RNA Summit could also impact global trading on Thursday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.0% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 -.2
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 59.9% of Issues Advancing, 37.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +28.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$153.3M
  
• 79 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 52.2% (+.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 49.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.4 -2.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.0 -.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,084.2 -.15%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.7 -1.7%
  
• Vix 12.5 -1.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Real Estate, Production Slide Highlights More Stimulus Needed.
• Asian Shares Follow Record-Breaking Wall Street.
• Oil Holds Gain as Risk-On Sentiment Helps to Support Commodities.
• S&P 500 Hits 30th Record of 2024 as Megacaps Rally.
• Fed’s Harker Says One Rate Cut in 2024 Is Appropriate Based on Outlook.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zerohedge:  

• "Shouldn't Be Happening": Illegal Alien Gang Member Arrested In Death Of Maryland Mom Of Five.
• How Trump Wins The Debate – And The Election.
• Why Modi's India Is Suddenly Getting Washington's Cold-Shoulder.
• "Clearly Not Satisfied": McDonald's Winds Down IBM's Drive-Thru AI Chatbot Test.
• The Corruption Of Merrick Garland.
• China's New Home Prices Plunge The Most Since October 2014.
• Former CDC Director Predicts Bird Flu Virus Will Cause Next Pandemic.
• LA Studying Removing Police From Traffic Enforcement.
• VDH: How Left-Wing Conspiracies Work.
• Overbought Mania.
• US stocks and oil prices gained amid dollar weakness, while participants await a slew of Fed speakers - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Has Reportedly 'Ramped Up' Intel-Sharing With Israel, Alarming Democrat Lawmakers .
• Sense And Nonsense On Petrodollars.
• Xi Said US Is Trying To 'Goad Beijing' Into Attacking Taiwan.
• Stocks and oil bid as Dollar slips ahead of a deluge of Fedspeak - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• The United States Of 'Go Figure'...
• Bitcoin, Black Gold, & Big-Tech Rip To Start The Week.

Wall Street Journal:

• Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With Over $1 Trillion at Stake.
• Biden to Give Legal Status to Immigrant Spouses of Citizens.
• Boeing’s CEO Search Hits Some Snags.
• Netanyahu Dissolves Israel’s War Cabinet.
• U.S. Surgeon General Calls for Warning Labels on Social-Media Platforms.

CNBC.com:

• Nvidia to get 20% weighting and billions in investor demand, while Apple demoted in major tech fund.
• Apple stops offering buy now, pay later loans in U.S. 
• Judge tosses Exxon Mobil lawsuit against activist shareholder Arjuna over climate proposal.
• New Jersey Democratic kingmaker George Norcross indicted on racketeering charges.
• GameStop closes more than 12% lower after annual meeting fails to offer details on firm’s strategy.
• 80% of Americans say their grocery costs have notably increased since the pandemic started.

MarketWatch.com: 

• How Nvidia’s new Street-high stock-price target stacks up in the chip sector.
• 8 stocks other than Microsoft, Apple and Nvidia that could be worth $4 trillion in three years.
• Merck’s vaccine approval poses threat to one of Pfizer’s top-selling products.
• Chegg says it’s doubling down on students while cutting nearly a quarter of its staff.

Fox News:

• Trump pulls far ahead of Biden in one-time swing state Obama won twice, poll finds.
• Ex-deputy CIA director warns US faces ‘serious threat’ of terror attack in ‘months ahead’.
• John Kerry under scrutiny from his time as top US diplomat as whistleblowers step forward.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• IT BEGINS: Kansas Sues Pfizer — State Alleges Company Knew of ‘Serious Adverse Events’ Yet Marketed COVID-19 Vaccine as ‘Safe’.
• 320,000 GHOST VOTERS Identified in MUST-WIN State of MI — Are Democrats Resorting to Dirty Tricks Reportedly Used by a Third-World Country to Win in 2024?
• Blinken Sits for Interview with Al-Jazeera News Anchor Who Expresses Hope for Israel’s Destruction.
• State Bar Quaking, Warns Lawyers Not to Criticize Lawfare Against Trump.
• The Look on Obama’s Face Says it All: Biden Incoherently Babbles About “Joe Jobs” as Obama Stares (VIDEO).
• Biden’s Failure: US Taxpayers to Spend Another $22M to Repair Gaza Pier – Report.
• Joe Biden to Deplete Oil Reserves to Artificially Lower Gas Prices Months Before Election.
• “Holy Cow… I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This, I’m Like Speechless” – CNN Data Reporter Shocked at Trump’s Level of Support with Black Voters (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Poverty in China Is Rising.
• The Chinese Dream Is Dying.
• Warren Buffett Is Unloading More BYD Stock.
• China the ‘Main Supporter’ of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Stoltenberg.

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Wow! (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes

• This Is Going To Truly Blow Your Mind. “Every Taliban member who died during the war with us, the US government is paying them a stipend, the family. So our families of Americans who died there aren't getting squat, but we are paying Taliban families for basically dying while attacking us”. “The $40 million a week that comes on the airplane and comes into Afghanistan. The amount of money on the plane weekly is $43 million to $87 million. But one thing I want Americans to understand is in that bucket of the $40 million we send each week, we are paying basically welfare to the Taliban martyrs family.” (video)

• @wideawake_media

• Wind turbines require more energy to build than they will generate in their entire lifespans. It's not about "saving the planet". It's about making energy intermittent, scarce and expensive, so it can be rationed and switched off if you're not obedient enough to the ruling "elite".
• "Most people will be willing to give up their privacy in exchange for much better health care, based on 24 hour monitoring of what's happening inside their bodies." — WEF "agenda contributor", Yuval Noah Harari. "Very soon, people will walk around with biometric sensors—on, or even inside their bodies—and will allow Google, or Facebook, or the Chinese government, or whoever, to constantly monitor what's happening inside [their] body."
• Stanley Johnson—the depopulation-obsessed father of Boris Johnson—admits it's "part of the national plan" that people will be forbidden from travelling by plane, under the guise of tackling "climate change". "If that means, actually, some of us are told 'well you can't go on a plane', that's fine. That's part of the national plan." (video)

• @amuse

• FAILURE: President Biden touted his massive $42B Broadband 'Equity' plan in 2021. Since then not a single American has been connected to the internet under the plan. Meanwhile Biden canceled Elon Musk's $1B plan to bring internet to 1M rural locations.

• @realchrisrufo

• BREAKING: The Biden Administration has unsealed the indictment against Dr.
  @EithanHaim, who blew the whistle on the child sex-change program at Texas Children's Hospital. He is now facing up to 10 years in prison for telling the truth about a practice that is now illegal. (pic)
  

• @The_Real_Fly

• VP HARRIS: BIDEN TO FIX GOVT CONTRACTS TO AT LEAST 50% NON WHITES. (video)

• @naomirwolf

• There it is. Send our men and women overseas into a war and the new illegal population gets to stay here and remain safe.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,011,672 Reports(+1,127 from prior report) Through May 31st, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 67.25 -1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.0 +2.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.4 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.53%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.6 -.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .71 -2.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.7 +1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.4 +.47%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 9.1 -7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 132.0 -7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%

• NYSE Arms .89 -34.1%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$157.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 -.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 278.6 -3.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 289 +1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.0 -2.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 191.6 +2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 153.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.9 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 170.9 -.08%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 124.8 +1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 basis points -.25 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 720.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -21.5 -1.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +2.9% n/a
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 259.43 +.33:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.46 +.50: Growth Rate +24.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.8 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .58 -24.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 54.9% -.8 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% unch.: CPI YoY +3.15% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 57.5%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 50.2%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +413 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -.7% 2) Telecom -.4% 3) Biotech -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FUTU, BASE, FSLR, SYM, CATX, IMNM, GME, SYRE and AMCX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HUN 2) OIH 3) FTI 4) IEF 5) XLB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GME 2) AKRO 3) ALT 4) SMG 5) MATW
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) XLY 3) XLK 4) XRT 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume