Stocks Close Modestly Higher on Quarter-End Window Dressing, China Stimulus Hopes, Technical Buying, Financial/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.16%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.63% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.8 +5.3 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -56.8 +1.3 basis points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +26.9% -1.5 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.60 -.10:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.69 +.64: Growth Rate +28.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.2 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 14.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +3.08% +15.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.6 -.3 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% -19.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 47.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.4%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -296 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +213 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/biotech/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Construction -1.9% 3) Semis -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AXTA, TRIN, KRNT, AU, MTN, ACHC, MEG, GM, GCT, MU, XPO, XPEV, ULTA, GNTX, GSBD, VIST, ANF, HPK, SVCO, GDS, YY, BBAR, GATO, LEU, AAP, ESTA, KALV, DAVE, STVN, COIN, IGMS, SATS, SMR, STLA, PRTA and HRTG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IQ 2) PAYX 3) FUTU 4) BEKE 5) JETS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) STLA 2) GM 3) DAVA 4) CRWD 5) LULU
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) PPA 3) IYF 4) GINN 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +3.9% 2) Digital Health +1.2% 3) Airlines +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CAPR, JKS, FUTU, NOAH, TAL, ZK, SDA, PGY, RPD, CORT, DJT, CPF, ZTO, DQ, ACMR, ZIM, ASPN, CSIQ, CPRI, ICUI and EDU
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TAL 2) TIGR 3) ITOS 4) AHR 5) MCHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EMKR 2) AQST 3) CORT 4) ZIM 5) NIO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) XOP 3) IGV 4) XRT 5) VGT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/4.27
• (MKC)/.67
• (PAYX)/1.14
• (UNFI)/-.08
  

After the Close: 

• (CALM)/3.36
• (LW)/.72
• (NKE)/.52
• (RGP)/.01
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in July. 
• JOLTS Job Openings for Aug. is estimated to fall to 7660K versus 7673K in July.
• ISM Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 47.2 in Aug.
• ISM Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to fall to 53.5 versus 54.0 in Aug.
  

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Sept. is estimated to rise to 15.68M versus 15.13M in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SMCI) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The VP debate, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, API weekly crude oil stock report, weekly US retail sales reports, Dallas Fed PCE for Aug., Dallas Fed Services Revenues for Sept., Texas Services Sector Outlook for Sept., Wolfe Utilities/Midstream/Clean Energy Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.7 -.1
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 45.0% of Issues Advancing, 52.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .82 unch.
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$176.4M
  
• 131 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 61.1% (+.02%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 -2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.4 +4.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.3 -.51%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,781.5 +.22%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (GREED) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.92 -25.0%
  
• Vix 16.7 -1.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 unch.

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• There were three attacks on my mother’s friends in New York this year. Police didn’t even show up and, obviously, there were no arrests.
• Criminals vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic Party, because it is the soft-on-crime party. Therefore the obvious incentive of the Democratic Party is to maximize the number of criminals who can vote. The Dems are also always pushing to allow all felons to vote in federal elections, because they know it helps them win. This is a fact, not conjecture. (pic)
• Near the fall of the Roman Empire, the Roman Army also increasingly relied on non-citizens.

• @BehizyTweets
  

• WATCH: Tulsi Gabbard reveals that when she opposed Barack Obama's request to start bombing more countries in the Middle East, the White House immediately called to threaten her. "I announced that I would be opposing President Obama's request to go and start another war. And in less than 24 hours, I got a call from the White House. How dare you stand against your president? (video)

• @rawsalerts

• BREAKING: Shelter-in-Place and Evacuations Ordered Due to Biolab Chemical Plant Fire releasing massive amounts toxic smoke. #Conyers | #Georgia. Currently, a shelter-in-place order and evacuations are underway as numerous hazmat crews and other emergency services respond to a significant fire at the Biolab chemical plant in Conyers, Georgia. (video)

• @TPostMillennial

• Jesse Waters on bombshell ICE report revealing Biden admin intentionally released illegal migrant convicted killers, sex offenders into US after being detained: "I didn't know we were catching and releasing killers." (video)

• @HannahGoetztv

• THREAD: Today we flew in Chopper9 for nearly 5 hours to get a look at the damage in Western North Carolina. What we saw was devastating. @wsoctv These are some of the images: Riverside Dr NW Charlotte. (video)

• @chuckcallesto

• JUST IN: Border Patrol Union takes a blow torch to Kamala Harris... (pic)

• @rondeauLivia

• This should be playing on every news channel. Private helicopter pilots are flying in supplies to areas of eastern Tennessee that are only accessible by air. The original poster Evie Kyker/cayotecowgirl said government aid is “nowhere to be found.” Devastating. (video)

• @nicksortor

• Asheville and Western North Carolina are UNDERWATER. Biden’s at the beach and Kamala’s at fundraisers with West Coast Elites. RADIO SILENCE from the White House. This is INFURIATING. (video)

• @DMichaelTripi

• BREAKING: US Embassy in Iraq has been surrounded by thousands of protestors. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Biolab Facility up in Flames in Conyers, Georgia. • The initial fire was caused when water from a “malfunctioning sprinkler” came into contact with a water-reactive chemical, leading to a “chemical reaction” and a fire on the roof of the plant. Despite initial containment efforts, the fire reignited, escalating the situation. (video)

• @popstarr65
  

• BUSTED...THESE are the same earrings Kamala wore at the DEBATE. (video)

• @EndWokeness 

• Trump and Tim Walz both went to college football today. Spot the difference. (video)
  

• @GuntherEagleman

• Trump just called out Joe Biden and Kamala Harris! As we have entire CITIES underwater and massive casualties in the south eastern part of America, Joe is sleeping on a beach and Kamala is attending a fundraiser. Why are the “leaders” of our nation laid back and silent on this TRAGEDY? If it were a natural disaster in Ukraine, Congress would’ve already been urged to call for a special session for funding. Where are our leaders? (video)
  

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• Voter Registration Changes: Nov 2020 to Jul 2024... (table)

• @Kanthan2030

• Arctic summers were supposed to be free from ice, back in 2012. That was the prediction in 2007. Then the doomsday was moved to 2016. And then 2020. Now, it’s 2030. But Arctic Sea ice extent has actually GROWN over the last decade! Climate scam goes on because it’s emotional and politicized. There’s no science, it’s pure idiocy. (pic)

• @PeterSweden7

• George Soros is buying 200 radio stations. One of them is WPHT in Philadelphia which suddenly announced that they will be DROPPING the Conservative Mark Levin show. Can't make this up. This is a media takeover.
  

• @FrankLuntz

• For the first time in decades, more Americans now identify as Republican (48%) than Democratic (45%). (graph)

• @WallStreetApes
  

• HOLY SH*T THIS IS HUGE. “I have a friend from Venezuela — She's a gastroenterologist in Venezuela — She showed me today and she told me, oh, I know they cheated in the 2020 because they've been sending me emails to register to vote to a email account that she opened in Venezuela many, many, many years ago. — She showed me the emails, and she had a bunch of Kamala Harris registered to vote, Kamala Harris campaign. And I'm like, wait. Are you a permanent resident, or are you a are you a citizen? She's like, no.” “Can someone explain to me why are they sending noncitizens emails to register to vote and to vote for Kamala Harris?“ (To get Venezuela email address). (video)
• If it wasn’t for citizen journalists you’d NEVER see footage like this. TSA caught LYING to American when asked about how they’re processing illegal migrants onto planes in America. Huge amounts of illegals ON CAMERA being processed to fly in America, NONE HAVE IDs. When citizen journalist asks why illegals don’t need identification TSA replies “So it's a need to know and you're not a person that needs to know.”
• I can’t believe what I just heard. The Kamala Harris Administration is allowing illegal migrants to present WARRANTS FOR THEIR ARRESTS as documentation to board airplanes to enter America. (video)

• @Nerdy_Addict
  

• Marshall, North Carolina catastrophic flooding. (video)

• @BreakinNewz01

• Lake Lure/Chimney Rock #NorthCarolina area today. Complete Devastation. (video)

• @TonySeruga
  

• Alejandro Mayorkas admits they have rescinded so many of President Trump’s border policies, it would take too much time to list them all. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 unch.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 59.25 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.6 USD/Metric Tonne +8.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.2 +.5%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.