Monday, November 04, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @elonmusk
  • @Overton_news
  • @CollinRugg
  • @kylenabecker
  • @pjcolbeck
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @CharlieKirk11
  • @JasonCalvi
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ImMeme0
  • @bamajayt
  • @OversightPR
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @drawandstrike
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @RenzTom
  • @newstart_2004
  • @MarioNawful
  • @MTGrepp
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @Amuse
  • @nickshirleyy
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @BeachforGA
  • @catturd2
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
  • @lakemonstercl1
  • EricLDaugh
  • @BoLoudon
  • @77HERCULES77
  • @Mostofsky
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 66.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -.01%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by energy and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Escalating US Election Integrity Concerns, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Mid-East Regional War Worries, Airline/Restaurant Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.11 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.30 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.2 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(361 of 500 reporting) +8.3% -.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.70 +.26:  Growth Rate +15.1% -.2 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% -10.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 375.52 +2.49: Growth Rate +31.9% +.7 percentage point, P/E 31.1 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .64 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 13.25 basis point (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.32% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.6% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 81.7%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 46.3%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +456 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +85 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.0% 2) Restaurants -1.3% 3) Utilities -1.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OHI, CLW, AMSC, AB, VRRM, FLNG, LIVN, KRYS, CTRE, OMI, SNCY, CSWC, FVRR, OPCH, SIRI, MBLY, PEG, ENTG, OGN, OKLO, VKTX, TRS, NYT, ANAB, TPG, BCE, TGTX, NNE, CEG, KNF, PRLB, NSSC, DOCN, PACS and LEU
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SN 2) LYV 3) GAP 4) NMRA 5) CEG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PACS 2) RILY 3) OKLO 4) EVLV 5) IREN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLV 3) KRE 4) XLY 5) XAR

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles +2.6% 2) Oil Service +2.0% 3) Homebuilding +1.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ATSG, IRON, IART, DJT, CC, FRPT, CVRX, COCO, GPRE, VRNA, KALV, NN, RUN, YUMC, CHWY, BBWI, LNTH, AZTA, BEAM, GTLS, CORT, LB, BE, NXT, FTDR, MOS, BAM, OSCR, FND, FSLR, W, SDA, AMRC, YPF, CSIQ, OSPN, VSCO, JANX, NTR, YETI, GDYN, NEP, PENG, TWLO, THC and BLBD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GSAT 2) SO 3) PTEN 4) FIVE 5) FCEL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GSAT 2) FRPT 3) CC 4) MOS 5) ANF
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) SMH 3) XLU 4) XLF 5) XRT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ADM)/1.24
  • (CMI)/4.82
  • (DD)/1.03
  • (EMR)/1.47
  • (IT)/2.37
  • (YUM)/1.41
After the Close: 
  • (CPNG)/.01
  • (DVN)/1.09
  • (IRBT)/-.06
  • (MCHP)/.43
  • (PAAS)/.20
  • (SMCI)/.73
  • (AGCO)/1.08
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Deficit for Sept. is estimated to widen to -84.0B versus -$70.34B in Aug.

10:00 am EST

  • The ISM Services Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 53.8 versus 54.9 in Sept.
  • The ISM Prices Paid Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 58.2 versus 59.4 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US Presidential Election, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report and the (LRCX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -.6
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 65.7% of Issues Advancing, 32.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.27 +8.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$177.2M
  • 61 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
  • 56.3% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -2.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.3 -.03%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.8 -.08%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,040.7 -.12%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) -9.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.6 -16.4%
  • Vix 22.3 +1.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.30 +13.0%