Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 -.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.9 +1.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -2.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures +.49%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Trump 62%-38% Betting Market Lead, Lower Long-Term Rates, China Stimulus Hopes, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.20 +.25%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.49 euros/megawatt-hour +.47%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.8 +3.9 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.61 -.09:  Growth Rate +15.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.58% -2.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 376.10 +.58: Growth Rate +32.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.6 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.03 -13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 8.25 basis point (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.38% +6.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.2% -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 75.7%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 47.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +530 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +60 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Steel -1.2% 2) Gambling -.8% 3) Pharma -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CSTL, GN, HUN, HOLX, VOYA, ST, NXPI, XPOF, APLS, CRUS, RACE, AZN, ADM, AGCO, BERY, TEM, CLF, WYNN, TKR, BWIN, BFAM, TDC, BVS, AOSL, CE, MAX and JELD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CPNG 2) FYBR 3) HST 4) ADM 5) BEN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CE 2) ADM 3) MQ 4) JELD 5) TCMD
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) KRE 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +3.0% 2) Social Media +2.9% 3) Construction +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALAB, ARIS, LIND, CENX, PLTR, XMTR, PAYO, PRAA, GFS, INGR, STVN, ICHR, PINC, CWK, PRIM, DJT, RDDT, CLW, BOWL, IRBT, HPK, TLN, SEI, AVO, EH, AVO, HUT, IRON, LPX, IRTC, CMCO, INOD, EMR, ZK, GOOD, TAC, QNST, DD, METC, NEO, GEO, HHH, GNRC, APO, RYAAY, ATRC, VRTX, CLS, NTST, IONQ, CWH, OTTR, BLDR, BPMC, GTLS, NGVT, CEIX, FWRD, SOFI, SNBR, CLBT, W, RYTM, TRI, BE, VERA, WTTR, CPNG, APPN and GTES
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SYF 2) MQ 3) GOGO 4) CHPT 5) CPNG

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) VMEO 2) PLTR 3) ALAB 4) UFPT 5) PAYO
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) FDN 4) VGT 5) OIH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AEP)/1.80
• (CRL)/2.42
• (CVS)/1.46
• (IRM)/1.11
• (JCI)/.56
• (JLL)/2.74
• (ODP)/1.60
• (OC)/4.05
• (SMG)/-1.96
• (SHOP)/.27
• (VSH)/.14
  

After the Close: 

• (ALB)/-.44
• (APA)/.97
• (APP)/.92
• (ARM)/.26
• (BYND)/-.48
• (DUOL)/.35
• (ELF)/.43
• (GILD)/1.51
• (JAZZ)/5.50
• (LYFT)/.19
• (MRO)/.63
• (MTCH)/.48
• (MCK)/6.88
• (MELI)/10.59
• (QCOM)/2.56
• (RGLD)/1.32 
• (STE)/2.12
• (TTWO)/.42
• (TRIP)/.45
• (VSTO)/.98
• (WMB)/.42
• (ZG)/.28

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +401,670 barrels versus a -515,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -327,830 barrels versus a -2,707,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +112,830 barrels versus a -977,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.52% versus a -.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US election results, 30Y bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KLAC) annual meeting, (CAH) annual meeting and the Stifel Midwest Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.9 +5.5
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 74.2% of Issues Advancing, 24.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .92 -17.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$13.4M
  
• 96 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
• 57.9% (+3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +2.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.2 +4.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.5 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,138.9 +.57%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 24.1 +65.1%
  
• Vix 20.3 -7.6%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.03 -22.0%