Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.7 +1.6%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.5 -.06%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate Cut Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.50% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.1 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.4 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +6.9% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.33 +.14:  Growth Rate +14.0% -.9 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% +7.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.49 +.27: Growth Rate +32.6% -.4 percentage point, P/E 33.3 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 -58.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.7% -1.1 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 60.2%(+6.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 46.7%(+10.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +206 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AAP)/.49
  • (JD)/7.57
  • (NTES)/12.21
  • (NICE)/2.68
  • (SBH)/.48
  • (TLN)/.26
  • (DIS)/1.11
After the Close: 
  • (AMAT)/2.19
  • (POST)/1.21
  • (WSM)/1.77
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in Sept.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 220K versus 221K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1873K versus 1892K prior.

11:00 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +3111,00 barrels versus a +2,149,000 barrel increase the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +471,290 barrels versus a +412,00 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +959,430 barrels versus a +2,947,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.81% versus a +1.4% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, IEA monthly report, Oppenheimer AI Impact on Cloud/Communications Conference, KBW Fintech Conference, JPMorgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference, (COHR) annual meeting, (EXTR) annual meeting, (ORCL) annual meeting, (TPR) general meeting and the Truist Internet Growth Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • Imagine you’re a U.S. Senator and when the people that elected you ask for transparency instead of a secret vote, you cry that you’re being bullied. The public deserves to know.
  • With the newest addition of Senator Marsha Blackburn, Sen. Rick Scott now has a total of SEVEN public endorsements: Sen. Mike Lee, Sen. Ron Johnson, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, Sen. Rand Paul, Sen. Bill Hagerty, Sen. Marco Rubio, Sen. Coach Tommy Tuberville. Progress.
  • Congratulations Tesla Powerwall team! These will make a big difference around the world. With a Powerwall, your home or business has guaranteed continuous power during utility blackouts or brownouts. Add solar to your roof and/or nearby ground and you can operate off grid. Add Starlink and you can operate your home with no wires at all!
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @julie_kelly2
  • @ElectionWiz
  • @CharlieKNews
  • @patriot_hammer
  • @realannapaulina
  • @JoeyMannarinoUS
  • @Catturd2
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @Breaking911
  • @LaraLogan
  • @JohnStrandUSA
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @MTGrepp
  • @pjcolbeck
  • @EndWokeness
  • @CaryKelly11
  • @teameffujoe
  • @pjcolbeck
  • @RobertBeadles
  • @Mashburn4NC
  • The idea that U.S. Senators “feel bullied” by their voters in making a decision— is the most stupid thing I’ve heard in a while. We don’t give a rat’s butt how you “feel”— YOU WORK FOR US. We have J6 prisoners who have no voice. We have veterans going without care and many are sleeping on the street. We have open borders that’s threatening our existence, families, and safety. We have inflation so high that many have to work three jobs. We have children being exploited and their bodies mutilated by surgeries because physicians enable and normalize mental illness. NO ONE CARES HOW ‘YOU’ FEEL! Get the job done and vote a MAGA supporter as Majority Leader to get the MAGA agenda in place to save America. This isn’t about YOU— it’s about us.
  • @Lancewallnau
  • WHAT BUSINESSES TO AVOID OR SHOP IN THIS CHRISTMAS! Businesses that supported Trump and businesses that did not: - Walmart donated to the Trump campagin, Target did not - Ace Hardware and Home Depot supported Trump, Lowes did not - Dillards supported Trump, Nordstroms did not - Chic-Fil-A supported Trump In and Out Burgers did not - Big Lots did, Costco did not - Publix, Bass Pro Shops Dollar General all supported Trump - Wayfair, Kohls did not - Tractor Supply supported Trump - Hobby Lobby donated *A LOT* to Trump - Whole Foods and Levi Strauss did not - Sephora :BIG supporters of Trump. I think WE ALL understand our assignments for this year's Christmas shopping...
  • @kylenabecker
  • @GrahamAllen_1
  • @Colleen59758
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.8 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 +.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Anti-Trump Senate Majority Leader Thune/Cornyn Possibilities, Surging Long-Term Rates, Diminished China Stimulus Hopes, Biotech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.8 -.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.4 +1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.1 -2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.5 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) +7.0% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.19 +.15:  Growth Rate +14.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.53% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.22 +.68: Growth Rate +33.0% -1.0 percentage point, P/E 33.0 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +11.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.98 +47.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 9.0 basis point (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.8% -2.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.5%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 40.5%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -96 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -116 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.0% 2) Homebuilding -2.6% 3) Biotech -2.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GOLD, WGO, SA, CE, HUT, BTDR, BLMN, MNDY, CWAN, DOCS, GFI, ESTA, NMM, AMGN, GEO, WDC, ENPH, FNKO, GEV, ALC, FOUR, SYRE, VCTR, NEP, CRSP, HASI, TSEM, AMN, VRDN, TGLS, ZK, SGRY, FWRG, SPHR, IAC, PRM, UPST, SATS, AVDL, THS, ZETA, PHAT, SNDX and PGY
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CNX 2) ZETA 3) ALGM 4) GFI 5) LW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NMRA 2) SPHR 3) MMM 4) AAME 5) CYAN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) SMH 3) GNR 4) MSTY 5) BKCH