Monday, November 25, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @BillAckman
  • The FDA safe limit of Aluminum is 25mcg BUT, babies get 250mcg on the first day of life with the Hepatitis B vaccine alone. Remember, ingested and injected are 2 different biological processes. Does Injecting 10 times the amount of Aluminum deemed safe into a day old infant seem logical and safe to you? Does anyone dispute these assertions?
  • @SovMichael
  • @DC_Draino
  • Elon is on a rampage to take out Senate RINOs. Good. We finally have an extremely wealthy political billionaire fighting for the MAGA team. Combine that with our MAGA social media ecosystem filled with influencers and podcasts with hundreds of millions of followers and we now have political nuclear warhead arsenal. RINOs have been warned!
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @RealHickory
  • @WesternLensman
  • @LeadingReport
  • @MarioNawful
  • @DC_Draino
  • @PamBondiAG
  • @bonchieredstate
  • @sheislaurenlee
  • @Libsoftiktok
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.22%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +2.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.2%
  • S&P 500 futures -.47%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Trump Cabinet Nominees, Long-Term Rate Plunge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Homebuilding/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -1.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .97 -5.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.4 -.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.0 +.44%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.46%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 +2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .74 -11.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.50 +59.5%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$169.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.2 -.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.3 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 188 -1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +.3%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 158.8 -.36%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.3 -.73%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.5 -1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 117.1 -2.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 -.06%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -2.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.89 +.19:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 381.87 +.39: Growth Rate +34.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 -.2 point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -24.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .74 -24.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.0% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.1%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.9%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.0% 2) Energy -1.3% 3) Shipping -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BKKT, LMT, MLI, MSTR, DESP, BTU, OKLO and NNE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) RSP 2) XLB 3) ACHR 4) ZM 5) QUBT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ZETA 2) M 3) IREN 4) FNA 5) SQ
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) XLI 3) XLK 4) KWEB 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +6.1% 2) Alt Energy +4.4% 3) Retail +4.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SRRK, HIMS, SEDG, BBIO, BBWI, TDOC, IMNM, RIVN, SMCI, SBH, LOVE, GLNG, RVLV, SYNA, KSS, DFH, LIF, FND, RMAX, EH, VITL, ONB, ALAB, AOSL, PII, ENPH, AMBA, MRNA, APLD, NGNE, VSH, ACVA, CRSP, BTDR, AZEK, CPRI, VCTR, DE, ZM, LOMA, EL, STNE, AN, HDB, BBY, DKS, SLM, DKS, MDB, ODD, MYE, LMND, GLBE, MAGN, PCOR, CTVA, UGI, SNOW, AI, ASGN, ESTC, ADI and IBTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KULR 2) XLB 3) HBI 4) RGTI 5) SAVA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BBWI 2) SMCI 3) BBIO 4) QUBT 5) SRRK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) XLF 3) NUSC 4) IGV 5) NUMG
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/2.39
  • (AMWD)/2.37
  • (ADI)/1.64
  • (BBY)/1.30
  • (BURL)/1.55
  • (DKS)/2.68
  • (SJM)/2.51
  • (KSS)/.28
  • (TITN)/.03
After the Close: 
  • (AMBA)/.03
  • (CRWD)/.81
  • (DELL)/2.07
  • (GES)/.37
  • (HPQ)/.93
  • (JWN)/.22
  • (NTNX)/.32
  • (URBN)/.86
  • (WDAY)/1.76
  • (ADSK)./2.12
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Nov.

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.35% gain in Aug.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 725K versus 738K in Sept. 
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 111.8 versus 108.7 in Oct.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to -11 versus -14 in Oct.
  • Dallas Fed Services  Activity Index for Nov.

2:00 pm EST

  • The Nov. 7 FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 5Y T-note auction, M2 money supply MoM, Texas Service Sector Outlook Index for Nov., weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report and the TD Securities Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +33.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -2.5
  • 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
  • 74.1% of Issues Advancing, 24.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.56 +66.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$141.4M
  • 423 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
  • 63.3% (+3.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 +5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.3 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 244.6 +.22%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,756.9 -.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -6.3%
  • Vix 15.4 +.7%
  • Total Put/Call .75 -10.7%