Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.6 +3.6
  
• 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
• 17.1% of Issues Advancing, 80.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -15.5%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$440.0M
  
• 21 New 52-Week Highs, 79 New Lows
• 53.0% (-3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.0 -4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 -.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.6 -.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,865.0 -1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 13.7 +43.2%
  
• Vix 17.7 +19.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +13.0%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.0 +1.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.62%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.23%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Reversal Lower, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 +.1 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.3 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.58 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.44 +.29: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.9 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 +12.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.66 +110.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 24.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.2% -.2 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.8% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +188 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +162 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.4% 2) Utilities -.3% 3) Internet -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GES, VITL, PKX, IREN and MSTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EOSE 2) ALB 3) RUM 4) IYR 5) EH
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MSTR 2) TMC 3) CMG 4) CRCW 5) ALBT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XOP 2) XLP 3) XLB 4) IGV 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.5% 2) Digital Health +1.3% 3) Retail +1.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QMCO, RUM, AVXL, RGTI, ARQQ, SERV, ATOM, SOUN, RCAT, REAL, LUNR, KC, KOD, EVER, HSAI, RDW, QUBT, TM, SKYT, MESO, AEHR, M, TEO, EH, CRESY, IONQ, BNED, GME, AXGN, BTDR, SPIR, HMC and ASAN
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GEVO 2) WIMI 3) ABAT 4) LODE 5) POET

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RYDE 2) ZCAR 3) GEVO 4) AVXL 5) SOUN
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) FDN 3) VGT 4) MAGS 5) XLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Nov. is estimated at -$101.2B versus -$99.1B in Oct.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Oct.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Oct.
  

1:00 pm EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -740,000 barrels versus a -934,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -628,000 barrels versus a +2,348,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -348,000 barrels versus a -3,180,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.02% versus a -.6% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST