Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deals, Rising US Growth Acceleration Odds, Short-Covering, Tech/Shipping Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 +.06% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.53% +7.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.0 euros/megawatt-hour -2.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.1 +1.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.6 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.8 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) +12.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.34 -.16:  Growth Rate +12.1% unch., P/E 21.4 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.38 +.25: Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.1 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.25 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.6 unch.
• US Yield Curve 47.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.3% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.5% -.1 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.85 +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +4.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 63.3% (-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.6%(-2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -393 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Pharma -2.5% 3) Gold & Silver -2.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TGLS, BULL, HALO, RELY, PONY, GLOB, AEO, ALC, CAE, KVYO, LOAR, LEGN, SPRY, SMLR, HRTG, CLPT, CLBT, GLBE, GRAL and DAVA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XP 2) AEO 3) FL 4) AU 5) URA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) DNUT 3) ARCO 4) HALO 5) NPWR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XRT 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +2.4% 2) Social Media +2.4% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NPCE, EXEL, KRNT, SMCI, RGTI, LUXE, OKLO, TME, ECG, LQDA, RKLB, RDDT, SATS, WING, ALHC, AXGN, PVH, KRMN, RUN, IIIV, PERI, SMR, NTCL, GCT, CVNA, TSEM, ENPH, ARM, SE, CRWV, AFRM, SOUN, IGT, ZIM, DT, TSLA, ACHR, LITE, AMD, LUNR, GOOGL, ALAB, UTI, GOOG, ODD, SYM, OMCL, CIM, OMCL, COCO, TARS, AMPL, CP and AEVA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EXE 2) UMC 3) TSLY 4) NWL 5) TME

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) SWVL 3) EXEL 4) SEPN 5) NUTX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MSTY 2) XLY 3) XLI 4) XLK 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (WMS)/1.06
• (BABA)/12.56
• (BIRK)/.54
• (CSIQ)/-1.16
• (DE)/5.56
• (MRX)/.89
• (NTES)/13.91
• (NICE)/2.84
• (WMT)/.58
  

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/2.31
• (CAVA)/.14
• (DOCS)/.27
• (LGF/A)/.42
• (TTWO)/1.10
• (MNRO)/.03
• (TGI)/.35
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to -8.0 versus -8.1 in April.
• Retail Sales Advance MoM for April is estimated unch. versus a +1.5% gain in March.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in March.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.4% decline in March.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.1% decline in March.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated at 228K versus 228K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1890K versus 1879K prior.
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for May is estimated to rise to -11.1 versus -26.4 in April.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.3% decline in March.
• Capacity Utilization is estimated at 77.8% versus 77.8% in March.
• Manufacturing Production for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for March are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for May is estimated at 40.0 versus 40.0 in April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, IEA Monthly Report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Healthcare Conference, BMO Chemical Conference, JPMorgan Tech/Media/Communications Conference, (LNG) annual meeting, (XPO) annual meeting, (MO) annual meeting, (TSCO) annual meeting, (YUM) annual meeting, (ORLY) annual meeting, (CLF) annual meeting, (T) annual meeting, (LVS) annual meeting, (CB) annual meeting, (BG) annual meeting, (KEY) annual meeting, (MS) annual meeting, (CVS) annual meeting, (RGEN) annual meeting,  and the BofA Industrials/Transports/Airlines Key Leaders Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +11.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 +6.3
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 38.2% of Issues Advancing, 59.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .59 -47.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$203.3M
  
• 49 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 42.1% (-2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.2 +2.7

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.6 +2.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.7 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,307.8 +1.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 71.0 (GREED) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -18.1%
  
• Vix 18.3 +.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .66 -14.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• @POTUS: "Far too many American presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it's our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins ... It is God's job to sit in judgment — my job to defend America and to promote the fundamental interests of stability, prosperity, and peace." (video)
• Elon at the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum: “I think that everyone will want to have their personal robot. You can think of it like as though you had your own personal C-3PO or R2D2.” (video) 
• President Trump: “In the end, the so-called nation builders wrecked far more nations than they built and the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves”. (video) 
• Tesla FSD 13.2.9 is a work of art. Here it is driving up the Hollywood Hills. (video)
• ELON: WE’RE HEADED TO A RADICALLY DIFFERENT WORLD WITH HUMANOID ROBOTS. Here is Elon’s interview at the Saudi–U.S. Investment Forum earlier today. (video)
• NEWS: Morgan Stanley has released a forecast claiming the humanoid robot market could expand to a staggering $5 trillion in annual revenue by 2050, with Tesla being uniquely positioned. "A more cooperative and open trading relationship between the US and China can help accelerate the next phase for @Tesla beyond sales of human-operated EVs." (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• A balding Chuck Todd rips Senator Chuck Schumer for "covering up" President Biden's mental decline. "Go home. You’re part of the problem. Now you tell us?" Lmao what a fraud. This guy and his friends in the media covered up Biden's obvious mental decline for four years and then have the audacity to blame it on someone else. The media spin is in full effect. They want you to forget that **they** were the ones who defended Biden when he was deteriorating in front of you. (video)
• Turmeric Lowers Blood Pressure-How To Get the Most Out Of It. 
• DOGE's Second Act.
• S&P Surges Into Green For 2025 On CPI, Saudis, & A Giant Short-Squeeze.
• Crude, Crypto, & Mega-Caps Soar On CPI, Saudis, & A Giant Short-Squeeze.
• Bears Capitulate: JPMorgan Drops Recession Call After Stocks Surge; Goldman Hikes GDP Forecast, Boosts S&P Target. (graph)
  

• @MarioNawful

• SEN. HAWLEY: WI JUDGE INDICTED FOR OBSTRUCTING JUSTICE—“YOU’RE NOT ABOVE THE LAW”. "This judge committed a federal crime—obstructing justice—and I’m glad she got indicted. Too many judges act like dictators, running the country instead of following the law. This one flouted justice while defending gang members and terrorists. Prosecute her fully. Let this be a lesson: you are not above the law." (video)
• SPEAKER JOHNSON: MEDICAID CUT CLAIMS ARE SIMPLY NOT TRUE. "Even before the bill text had come out, they were running ads and put billboards up around the country suggesting we were cutting Medicaid. It's simply not true, and we were able to get the ads pulled down because they were based on false information. The bill text was just filed on Monday, yesterday morning, and people are going through that and understanding what we're actually doing.” (video)
• HASSETT: WHILE BIDEN SLEPT, CHINA SPREAD—NOW TRUMP’S GOLDEN AGE IS HERE. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett: "Biden was asleep in the Oval—no deals, no defense of U.S. workers. China filled the void. But now we’ve got an activist president. Inflation is falling, egg prices are down 12%, tariff revenue is rising, and everyone wants to sign with us. Trump knows how to build a golden age—and it’s happening." (video)
• CORTEX 2.0: TESLA'S NEXT SUPERCOMPUTER TAKES SHAPE IN TEXAS. Tesla’s Giga Texas campus is quietly transforming again—this time into the home of “Cortex 2.0,” the company’s next-gen supercomputer hub. What started as a simple support facility has now been refiled under a name that signals serious AI horsepower. Drone footage confirms rapid progress on the site. Insiders say this isn’t just for Full Self-Driving. Optimus—the humanoid robot—needs training too. Between Robotaxi rollout and Musk’s vision of AI abundance, Cortex 2.0 might just be the brain behind it all. And it’s coming online fast. 
• CHINESE SPIES DISGUISE AS STUDENTS TO STEAL AI RESEARCH BUT BLOW COVER BY INSISTING ON WECHAT ONLY. Stanford Review investigation reveals Chinese Ministry of State Security agents posing as students to extract sensitive AI and robotics research from unsuspecting Americans. 
• AWS AND SAUDI ARABIA LAUNCH $5B+ AI ZONE TO DOMINATE THE GLOBAL AI RACE. Amazon Web Services and Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN are pouring over $5 billion into a massive AI buildout—including new infrastructure, AI services, and workforce training. This “AI Zone” will feature AWS’s top tools—SageMaker, Bedrock, and Amazon Q—plus high-performance semiconductors and Ultrafast AI networks to power everything from coding assistants to Arabic-language LLMs. 
• U.S. ENERGY DEMAND SURGES — SOLAR AND BATTERY STORAGE RACE TO CATCH UP. Electricity use in the U.S. is expected to break records again in 2025 and 2026, pushing utilities to rapidly expand solar and battery storage, says the Energy Information Administration. Solar leads the charge with 135 GW added between 2020–2026. Battery storage is next, adding 57.5 GW—outpacing new wind and gas. Coal? Down 50 GW. Texas is ahead of the pack with nearly 20 GW in new battery storage planned—boosting grid reliability and lowering costs. Storage is now critical infrastructure, keeping the lights on when renewables dip. In 2024 alone, 10.3 GW of new storage came online.
  

• @LauraLoomer

• NEW: Republicans appear to be letting their guard down ahead of the 2026 midterms at the expense of President Trump. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• EXPOSED. Tax Forms reveal the secret relationship between Democrats and The Pope. “Joe Biden meets with Pope Francis in 2021. Guess what else happens in 2021. Catholic Charities USA, which is the NGO nonprofit arm of the Catholic Church, they get selected to serve as the leader for multiple states by Joe Biden's Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Refugee Resettlement. So this is a new designation the Catholic Church gets. They get a significant amount of money, like a lot. (video)

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• WORLD EXCLUSIVE: O’KEEFE RELEASES FIRST-EVER FOOTAGE FROM INSIDE JEFFREY EPSTEIN'S PRIVATE ISLAND MANSION. Video Shows Image of Baby in Sink Holding Phallic Toy Near Epstein’s Kitchen Table; OMG Promises More Exclusive Epstein Videos.

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• The RINOs in House are crapping all over President Trump’s big beautiful bill. They have left out the “No Tax on Social Security”. Even worse, they created a “sunset clause” for the little bit of help they are giving to senior citizens. This is PATHETIC.

• @RodDMartin

• MASSIVE NEWS: Saudi Arabia just committed to $600B in US investments! - AI data centers - Aerospace - Energy infrastructure - Defense - Healthcare Let that sink in...

• @unusual_whales 

• BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi bought $TEM Tempus AI calls at $15.15 on Jan 14th, 2025. She paid just over $75,000 for these contracts. $TEM is up 10% today, 100% on the year. She is up millions. You can only track her option positions exits in real time one place, Unusual Whales.

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: A federal judge has just ruled President Trump’s use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Tren de Aragua gang members is LEGAL. RAMP UP THE DEPORTATION FLIGHTS! Trump’s proclamation and documents “support the finding that TdA is committing a ‘predatory incursion’ as that term is defined in the AEA,” the court said.
• HOLY CRAP! Ed Martin, the DOJ’s Pardon Attorney, is launching an INVESTIGATION into Joe Biden’s last minute auto-pen pardons. “We've never seen pardons of this scope, and it looks like they could be corrupt.” Schiff and Fauci are going to be losing a LOT of sleep. (video)

• @realTrentLeisy

• REPORT: List of U.S. Senators with Pharmaceutical Contributions (1990-2024): 1. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI): $600,000... (list)

• @IanJaeger29

• REPORT: New Polling shows Senator John Cornyn losing in a landslide to Ken Paxton in the primary. 56% to 40%.

• @amitisinvesting

• $NVDA not stopping overnight. +2% Bloomberg reported after hours that based on the repeal of the AI diffusion rules, Nvidia may be eligible to sell 500,000 chips a year to the UAE until 2027. The market may be realizing that AI is not as cyclical as it thought.

• @stkirsch 

• Never forget. Over 490,000 kids paralyzed by the Gates Foundation polio vaccine. It's documented in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

• @catturd2

• It's blatantly obvious now that Trump and his cabinet work for the American people and 90% of Republicans and Democrats in Congress work for lobbyists and they're for sale to the highest bidder.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.7 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.58 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.2 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.09%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.