BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Monday, November 03, 2025

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:15 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(ADM)/.85
(CDW)/2.62
(DAVE)/1.82
(ETN)/3.05
(EXC)/.78
(EXPD)/1.39
(RACE)/2.40
(IT)/2.43
(GPN)/3.23
(HOG)/1.53
(HTZ)/.03
(LDOS)/2.71
(LGIH)/.93
(LTH)/.33
(MDGL)/-2.29
(MAR)/2.38
(MLM)/6.72
(TAP)/1.70
(NCLH)/1.16
(PFE)/.63
(RYTM)/-.71
(SEE)/.70
(SHOP)/.34
(SPOT)/1.96
(SWK)/1.19
(BLD)/5.29
(UBER)/.69
(VITL)/.30
(WAT)/3.21
(WING)/.92
(YUMC)/.74
(ZTS)/1.62

After the Close:

(AEIS)/1.47
(AMD)/1.17
(AES)/.77\
(AFL)/1.77
(AIG)/1.72
(AMGN)/5.02
(ANDE)/.47
(ANET)/.72
(ALAB)/.39
(AXON)/1.52
(CAVA)/.13
(CRUS)/2.38
(CPNG)/.04
(KTOS)/.12
(LYV)/1.32
(LITE)/1.03
(MTCH)/.63
(MOS)/.97
(RIVN)/-.74
(SWKS)/1.52
(SMCI)/.37
(TOST)/.24

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

The Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -$64.1B.

10:00 am EST

The JOLTS Job Openings report for Sept. is estimated to fall to 7150K versus 7227K in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for Nov., weekly API crude oil stock report, (CAT) investor day, Gabelli Automotive Symposium and the (LRCX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:43 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +18.5% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.6 -1.3
7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
35.81% of Issues Advancing, 62.3% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.1 +28.6%
Non-Block Money Flow -$193.1M
58 New 52-Week Highs, 86 New Lows
58.5% (-2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 45.8 -2.3

Polymarket:

Will Congress pass a funding bill by Nov. 30th? 84.0% -3.0 percentage points
US tariff rate on China on Nov. 12th? Less than 25% 89.0% -8.0 percentage points
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 65.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 86.3 +2.5%
US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 342.0 +3.75 basis points
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.8 +1.0%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 176.7 +1.0%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +10.0
1-Day Vix 10.1 -26.5%
Vix 17.6 +.9%
Total Put/Call .75 -5.1%

Sunday, November 02, 2025

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:10 PM

Around X:

@Business

Israel threatened to step up strikes against Hezbollah and a senior US envoy warned Beirut that time was running out to disarm the Iranian-backed Lebanese faction
.
Chinese oil refiners are shunning Russian shipments after the US and others blacklisted Moscow’s top producers
.
Some of the world’s riskiest sovereign borrowers are returning to international debt markets, taking advantage of increasing appetite for yield to sell bonds.
China criticized Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for meeting with Taiwan officials on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and her subsequent social media posts about the discussions.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he expects US nuclear-weapons testing sought by President Donald Trump to stop short of actual atomic bomb explosions for now.
How the mass-stabbing on a high-speed train bound for London unfolded
.
OPEC+ agreed to make another small output increase in December but will pause further hikes for the following three months.
Gold dropped below $4,000 an ounce after China ended a long-standing tax rebate for some retailers, a change that could hurt demand in one of the largest precious-metals markets.
A dramatic rebound in clean-tech stocks has investors in the green economy hoping they can finally turn the page on years of punishing underperformance.
Investors are increasingly turning to bank quantitative investment strategies for protection that will react faster during sudden market upsets.
The US Food and Drug Administration’s lead drug regulator George Tidmarsh resigned two days after being placed on administrative leave over personal conduct concerns, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.
Nvidia Corp. made history last week when it became the first company ever to have a market value of $5 trillion. But that’s just one way it’s casting a shadow over the global economy.
Donald Trump’s re-election was supposed to deliver a booming stock market. It’s done that, just not for the reasons prognosticators anticipated.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here's what you need to know to start your day.

@Zerohedge

"I Am Declining Fast": Cancer-Striken Scott Adams Urges Trump To Help Secure Treatment After Kaiser 'Dropped the Ball'.
Ex-ISIS Envoy Who Killed Americans In Iraq To Be Hosted At White House This Month.
Taiwan Wants To Be The Israel Of Asia & Its D.C. Lobby Is Growing.
"The cessation of QT reconfirmed a Fed reaction function at once deeply asymmetric and completely oblivious to asset price inflation. This paves the way for further melt-up and for more assets to exhibit the sort of exponential sawtooth boom-bust recently seen in gold" -Matt King.
On my first day @USDA, we told every state to send us their SNAP data so we could make sure illegal immigrants aren’t getting benefits meant for American families. 29 states stepped up. 21 blue states refused — and two SUED US FOR ASKING! And guess what? In just the states that cooperated, we’ve already uncovered massive fraud. The Democrat Party has turned its back on working Americans and built its entire strategy around protecting illegal aliens. They know if the handouts stop, those illegals will go back home, and Democrats will lose 20+ seats after the next census.
White House Unveils Details Of U.S.-China Deal, Including Resolution To Nexperia Auto Chip Crisis.
Here Are Mayoral Races To Watch On Tuesday's Election.
A Shift In US Procurement Spending Patterns Creates Immense Opportunities.
Since the last update, Russia has added one additional nuclear reactor under construction (up to 5). China is still at 29; the US is still at 0. (graph)
Why Are 42 Million Americans Relying On SNAP Benefits?
Benny Johnson's SNAP Fix: Require Every Recipient To Reapply And Prove U.S. Citizenship.
Let Commie Mamdani Take New York City.
*HUANG: TRUMP/XI DEAL ENSURES NVIDIA COMPETES IN CHINA'S MARKET. *NVIDIA'S CEO JENSEN HUANG SPEAKS ON FOX NEWS.
Here's Why Asian Americans Shifted Right.
China 'Made A Real Mistake' With Rare Earth Threats: Bessent.
9 People In Critical Condition After Mass Stabbing On UK Train.
Gabbard Says Trump Has Ended America's Era Of 'Regime Change'.
Ohio Sec. Of State Refers 1,084 Cases Of Suspected Fraudulent Voter Registration to DOJ.

@CNBC

Global week ahead: Is Novo Nordisk past 'peak uncertainty'?
Where the blockbuster weight loss drug market stands today — and what’s coming next.
Earnings playbook: AMD and Palantir set to report in another busy week.
Treasury Secretary Bessent says SNAP food benefits could restart by Wednesday.
Stock futures are little changed to start November trading: Live updates.
Asia-Pacific markets trade mixed ahead of PMI data from China.
CNBC Daily Open: AI trade frenzy seems driven by a 'virtuous' cycle.

@WSJ.com

Forget teaching robots to think like humans. A field called swarm robotics is taking inspiration from ants, bees and even slime molds.
A fresh obstacle to President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza is taking shape: how to bring in an international security force to police the enclave without either Hamas or Israel abandoning the process.
At this school, students aren’t turning to AI as a homework shortcut. Using chatbots is part of the assignment—and professors say, forces them to think.
Heard on the Street: Novo Nordisk and Pfizer are showing some desperation in their gloves-off fight for the obesity-drug assets of Metsera.

@MarioNawful

WIKIPEDIA CO-FOUNDER: “WIKIPEDIA WILL BE LEFT IN THE DUST BY GROKIPEDIA". Ex-founder of Wikipedia, Larry Sanger: "The neat thing that they’re promising is that you’ll be able to actually talk with the Grok chatbot and say: 'Can you fix this?' or 'Can you add this to the Grokipedia article?' And it will. I actually experimented with that. It didn’t add the factoid I told it to add, but it said it would when the feature became available. So they’re promising to do that. What I’m telling the Wikipedians now is: you guys need to get your act together, or you’re going to be left in the dust by Grok. For one thing, they need to start allowing the use of primary sources, because Grokipedia is going to be trained on those. And if and when they get access to all of those library books and journals, it’s game over." (video)
TRUMP: "NVIDIA CEO IS ONE OF THE GREAT GENIUSES OF OUR TIME." "His chips are 10 years ahead of anybody else’s. I meet with him all the time. He’s great, it’s a great American company. It’s now the biggest company in the world. The chips are 10 years ahead. The new Blackwell that just came out is 10 years ahead of every other chip. But there’s nothing to meet with other than to say congratulations. We don’t give that chip to other people." (audio)

@EricLDaugh

BREAKING - New Jersey governor candidate JACK CIATTARELLI: "We just picked up the endorsement of ANOTHER prominent Democrat! A former State Assemblyperson from Hudson County!" "When Democrats are endorsing the Republican, it tells you we're WINNING this race." "There are signs EVERYWHERE we're gonna win this race. Have you seen the recent polls? Oh my goodness, we're right there!" "We're out-FUNDRAISING my opponent, out-ENERGIZING my opponent!" LET'S GO! (video)
HOLY CRAP! Virginia gubernatorial candidate Winsome Sears NUKES opponent Abigail Spanberger for campaigning with AG candidate Jay Jones, who wants Republicans killed. "UNHAPPY, Abigail? About M*RDER? How about you get a backbone and tell him he needed to GET OUT of the RACE!" "Her candidate saying 2 bullets to the head for his opponent, and the wife was 'breeding fascists,' and they needed to die too?! All she says is, 'well, I am unhappy!'" (video)

@PeteHegseth

I just spoke to President Trump, and we agree — the relationship between the United States and China has never been better. Following President Trump’s historic meeting with Chairman Xi in South Korea, I had an equally positive meeting with my counterpart, China’s Minister of National Defense Admiral Dong Jun in Malaysia. And we spoke again last night. The Admiral and I agree that peace, stability, and good relations are the best path for our two great and strong countries. As President Trump said, his historic “G2 meeting” set the tone for everlasting peace and success for the U.S. and China. The Department of War will do the same — peace through strength, mutual respect, and positive relations. Admiral Dong and I also agreed that we should set up military-to-military channels to deconflict and deescalate any problems that arise. We have more meetings on that coming soon. God bless both China and the USA!

@MJTruthUltra

Mark Levine calls for Steve Bannon, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carson, and Candace Owens to be “DEALT WITH”. What do all of them have in common? They all have been criticizing the Government of Israel in some way. (video)

@BrokenBritain0

BREAKING NEWS: THE MASS STABBING IN HUNTINGDON IS OFFFICIALLY BEING TREATED AS A TERROR ATTACK. REPORTS AT LEAST 10 PEOPLE STABBED AND 2 PEOPLE ARRESTED. BRITAIN IS ABOUT TO EXPLODE! (video)

@TheInsiderPaper

NEW: Manhattan-sized interstellar object 3I/ATLAS accelerates and turns bluer — possible signs of alien ‘engine,’ Harvard scientist says.

@GlennYoungkin

“2 bullets in the head of our former Speaker, watch his children die in their mother’s arms, killing a few cops”…these are the values Abigail Spanberger, Barack Obama, and the entire Democrat establishment fully embraced today as they campaigned with their demented AG candidate, Jay Jones. Any shred of moral clarity left in the Democrat Party was laid bare as Virginians clearly saw today that violence and murder are just fine with them. Those may be their values, but they aren’t Virginia values. Get out and vote for @winwithwinsome, @johnreid4va, and @jasonmiyaresVA.

@winwithsinsome

Abigail voted against the Laken Riley Act—after a young woman was murdered on her campus by a criminal who never should’ve been here. Mercy to criminals is cruelty to the innocent. (pic)

@StockSavvyShay

People keep yelling “bubble” every time the market makes a new high but bubbles happen when prices disconnect from fundamentals. That’s not what’s happening here. Earnings keep beating expectations, margins are expanding & companies are getting more efficient while multiples are even compressing as prices move higher. I keep coming back to the PEG ratio because it adjusts valuation for how fast earnings are growing. Right now the $SPY PEG ratio is ~1.3 which means valuations are tracking growth in a responsible way. In 2021, during the last real bubble, it was over 2 because prices were running way ahead of fundamentals. What we’re seeing now is an acceleration phase. Corporate efficiency & AI-driven output are improving faster than people realize & humans are bad at recognizing exponential change in real time. They call it a bubble because it feels unreal but it’s just what a re-rating looks like when productivity & profits finally move in sync. (graph)

@StockMKTNewz

The White House just released this fact sheet titled. "President Donald J. Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China ". Here's what the White House says is going to happen. CHINESE ACTIONS:

@ProjectConstitu

BOMBSHELL EVIDENCE: CONFIRMED NOT 2 BUT 5 EGYPTIAN MILITARY PLANES SWARMED PROVO in 2025 – Direct Flights to Charlie Kirk's Assassination Site. This Is No Coincidence.

@Catturd2

Why don’t Republicans understand this?

@C_3C_3

Ilhan Omar’s net worth… 2020: -$65K. 2021: $65K. 2022: $115K. 2023: $205K. 2024: $30 million. America must not be that bad. What a scam.

Night Trading

Asian indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 +.25 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 39.5 -.5 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.84 -.19%
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.02%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.2 -.1%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.08% -2.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.8 -.8%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%.
S&P 500 futures +.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 01, 2025

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 10:34 PM