Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CSIQ)/-.53
• (JD)/2.75
• (NICE)/3.17
• (SBH)/.48
• (SPB)/.90
• (SSYS)/.00
• (DIS)/1.05 
• (BABA)/6.03
• (CPRT)/.39
• (HI)/.61
• (M)/-.15
• (WSM)/1.86 

After the Close: 

• (AMAT)/2.11
• (BZH)/.80
• (NNE)/-.31
• (STUB)/-2.87
• (STRZ)/-1.35
• (NMAX)/-.07 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.  
• The Core CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY for Oct. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +587,400 barrels versus a +5,202,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -1,763,400 barrels versus a -4,729,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,296,000 barrels versus a -643,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.08% versus a -.6% decline prior.  

2:00 pm EST

• The Federal Budget Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$238.6B versus $198.0B in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (NFLX) 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Hammock speaking, Fed's Musalem speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, IEA monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (COHR) annual meeting, (EL) annual meeting, (PLNT) investor day, (SYK) investor day and the Baird Global Industrial Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 +.1
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 56.8% of Issues Advancing, 40.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 -7.0% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$55.3M
  
• 133 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 62.9% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.5 +3.5

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 22.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31st? 19% -7.0 percentage points 
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 45.0% +6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.7 -1.3%
• US High-Yield All Sectors OAS Index 348.25 +3.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.9 -.3%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 166.7 -.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.9 +1.2%
  
• Vix 17.6 +1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -6.0%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The loans underscore a major challenge facing policymakers as China’s economy slows: They can make funds cheaper and more abundant, but they can’t force people to borrow, spend or invest. 
• Australia’s spy chief has accused hackers working for China’s government of probing his nation’s communications and infrastructure networks. 
• South Korea’s POSCO will buy a 30% stake in Mineral Resources' lithium business, giving it partial ownership of the Mount Marion and Wodgina mines in Western Australia.
• President Donald Trump will host financial industry executives for dinner Wednesday at the White House, according to two sources.
• Treasuries rallied as trading in the cash market resumed after a holiday, with traders pricing in a higher chance of a Fed rate cut in December following a weak private payrolls report.
• The US FDA has named Richard Pazdur as its lead drug regulator, turning to a longtime official to stabilize the agency after a period of turmoil. 
• US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned Tuesday that flight disruptions could worsen considerably and airlines could ground planes if the government stays closed.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• White House Declares 'Anti-Communism Week' Honoring 100 Million Lives Lost.
• NEW: Kamala Harris on campaigning against TRUMP. "I understood the game that was being played. And I made a decision that I wasn't gonna get played." *CACKLES*. "Three-dimensional chess!" Maybe she lost because Trump was playing 4D chess while she was playing 3D. (video)
• Rep. Massie Still Investigating Jan. 6 Provocateur Ray Epps.
• *SOFTBANK SHARES FALL AS MUCH AS 10%. Maybe liquidating NVDA to invest in its biggest cash-incinerating client wasn't the best idea.
• Land In "Data Center Alley" Sets New Price Record.
• Florida AG Targets JPMorgan Over Trump Debanking, Jack Smith Collusion.
• China Bars U.S. Military From Access To Rare Earths, Increasing Risk Of "Derailing" Trade Truce.
• Conservatives are being targeted by a t*rrorist organization at Berkeley and basically nothing is being done about it. @UCBerkeley is not safe for Conservative students. Antifa is allowed to terrorize Conservatives there with impunity.  
• How AI Is Supercharging Scientific Fraud.
• US Government Agencies Terminate 67 Wasteful Contracts Worth $1.4 Billion: DOGE. 
• New Alliance, Old Scandal: The COVID Failure Haunting Hochul.
• Tech Wrecked, Crypto Dumped, Crude Pumped, & Bonds Bid On Bad Data.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: SoftBank doubles down on AI amid warnings from 'Big Short' investor.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to rise after mixed trading on Wall Street on hopes of U.S. government shutdown ending; AI trade pullback.
• Stock futures little changed after Dow notches record high: Live updates.

• @WSJ  

• In recent weeks, drones appearing mysteriously above airports and halting flights in Europe have made headlines. Those are just the tip of the iceberg.
• The U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier arrived in waters near Latin America on Tuesday, expanding the American military’s buildup as the Trump administration seeks to ratchet up the pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. 
• Wall Street is getting creative to meet AI's insatiable demand for money. We break down three huge—and unusual—deals. 

• @TheTranscript

• Softbank CFO on ChatGPT's weekly active users: "As of October 2025, they have already exceeded 800M WAUs...making an even bigger gap with other competitors who provide a similar type of service...the number of app downloads for ChatGPT is 871M...which also outpaces competitors". (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.89 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 85.5 -.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.08% -4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.3 +.03%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, US Government Reopening Hopes, Sector Rotation, Biotech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 -.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .68 -58.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 85.9 +.1% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 +.55%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 202.3 +.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.3 +.44% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 159.0 +21.0

• Total Put/Call .74 -10.8%

• NYSE Arms .87 -42.8%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$137.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.75 unch.
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 348.25 unch.
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 245.0 -5.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.0 -.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 75.0 unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.6 -1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 134.8 unch.

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 -.04%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -6.25 basis points -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 127.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 611.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 +.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.12% unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.83% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.1 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.0 -1.0 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(456 of 500 reporting) +11.7% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 301.45 +n/a:  Growth Rate +15.2% +n/a, P/E 22.6 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.50% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 496.18 +n/a: Growth Rate +22.1% +n/a, P/E 33.7 +n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .62 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.49 +19.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.0 -.1 point
• US Yield Curve 52.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 34.0% -1.1 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.69 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 53.2% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 38.9%(+3.8 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +348 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/utility sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.9% 2) Semis -1.9% 3) Disk Drives -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FOXF, NBIS, BEP, VAC, CLSK, SE, CSIQ, HSAI, CENX, CRWV and LIF

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CAPR 2) XP 3) XPEV 4) IEF 5) CELH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRWV 2) BYND 3) FRMI 4) SLSN 5) SOND

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLP 2) XLF 3) XLB 4) IGV 5) IYC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Pharma +2.8% 2) Biotech +2.5% 3) Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PUBM, REAL, TBPH, DSP, SIBN, INR, HNRG, LENZ, ETOR, APGE, QDEL, SNDX, HROW, EWTX, PSKY, LB, SLVM, TNDM, GRDN, RHI, VOD, TERN, ZBIO, MDGL, TDW, BKV, NVO, CART, KALV, ZYME, EVTC, CRK, SLNO, NVRI, NRIX, FLGT, GLIBK, XP, FDX, RIVN, ASTH, AU, OUT, AIP, DXCM, PRAA, SONY, ALC, BLCO, NKE, AKAM, WPP, APPN, DVN, KBDC, XPEV, KEP, EFC, BNTX, STLA, FDMT, TALO, RXST, AMPL, TEVA, AMRX, UTZ, CAAP, DEC, CI, DEC, UTZ, DAWN, LH, SD, EOG, PFE, GEN, AMTB and DGX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMBC 2) AKAM 3) WOW 4) ILMN 5) AS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) REAL 2) PUBM 3) BBAI 4) ONTF 5) DSP

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) NLR 2) IRE 3) XBI 4) XRT 5) SMH

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume