Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (SR)/-.40

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (NFLX) 10-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, (FOXA) annual meeting and the (SYY) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.8 +4.9
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 33.6% of Issues Advancing, 64.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -11.2% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$157.9M
  
• 82 New 52-Week Highs, 57 New Lows
• 61.4% (-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.5 -5.6

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 25.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31st? 30% +11.0 percentage points 
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 17.0% unch.
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 38.0% -7.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 84.7 -.21%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 428.75 +11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.6 -.8%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.2 -3.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (FEAR) -8.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.3 +18.7%
  
• Vix 19.2 +9.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .80 +1.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• The European Union is set to propose a plan to the US that would implement the next phase of the trade agreement the two sides reached this summer, according to sources.
• Top trade negotiators from Switzerland are headed to Washington, aiming to complete negotiations on a trade deal with the US that would lower the 39% tariff rate on Swiss goods.
• Chinese tax authorities ordered e-commerce giants to hand over sales data for the first time, according to sources, in a rare move to crack down on tax evasion by merchants who use the online platforms for cross-border business.
• The UK approved Wylfa in North Wales as the site for the country’s first small modular reactors, the next step in reviving its struggling nuclear power sector.
• The US Transportation Department and FAA said Wednesday evening that they were freezing flight reductions across major US airports at 6% due to positive trends in air traffic controller staffing.
• Federal prosecutors have indicted a former chief of staff to California Governor Gavin Newsom on public corruption charges, ensnaring a longtime adviser to one of the nation’s most prominent Democrats.
• Increased oil supply from OPEC and its allies will continue to put pressure on crude prices next year, while liquefied natural gas prices will likely fall later in the decade, according to Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• RFK Jr. Exposes Big Pharma's Stranglehold On American Media.
• After 43 Days, Congressional Democrats Fold, Vote To End Historic Shutdown.
• So, I bought 50,000 of these things for $1.84. Each of those things is 100 doodads. So I spent $9,200,000, Not $912,000,000. @CNBC @WSJ @FT. Each of those doodads let me sell $PLTR at $50 in 2027. That was done last month. On to much better things Nov 25th. -@MichaelJBurry. The big short 2 is $9.2 million.
• Public School Teachers Have A Serious Child Sex Abuse Problem.
• Justice Department Launches Investigation Into Security Failures At Berkeley TPUSA Event.
• Looks like BofA didn't have problems with having Epstein as a client as recently as 2016.
• Michael Wolff really loved Epstein for many many years. And some more...   
• Fetterman Says Democrats Are Rudderless, And Total Dicks.
• Jeffrey Epstein, mafia expert.
• Jeffrey Epstein, American Exceptionalism expert, with a dash of TDS on the side...
• Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince May Provide Boost To US Nuclear Industry.
• NYT journalists tipping off Epstein is a bigger scandal than that grossly misleading Trump story. 
• No Regrets: Sharaa Says Trump Didn't Bring Up His Al-Qaeda Past.
• Who is Timur Mindich, Zelensky's secretive associate at the center of a major corruption probe? 
• Today’s AI boom looks more like the early, healthy phase of the 1997–1998 tech cycle than the bubble of 1999–2000 according to GS. 
• CIA Met With Ralph Baric In 2015 To Discuss "Coronavirus Evolution And Possible Human Adaptation": Emails.
• When To Expect The Key Economic Reports After The Govt Reopens.
• Bitcoin & Black Gold Battered; Bonds & Bullion Bid As AI Angst Accelerates. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: An AI and 'everything else' market in play in the U.S.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed as Dow tops 48,000 for first time; traders eye U.S. government reopening.
• Stock futures tick lower after Dow rallies to record high: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco, Flutter Entertainment, Firefly and more.
• Cisco beats on earnings and guidance, lifting stock.   

• @WSJ  

• The finances of Silicon Valley’s two largest AI startups show a diverging approach to the AI boom, with Anthropic on a pace to turn a profit far more quickly than rival OpenAI.
• From @WSJopinion: Keeping people in homes they can’t afford means there are fewer available to buy, which makes housing less affordable for everyone else. That’s what a 50-year mortgage will do too. 

• @TheTranscript

• Cisco CEO on the difference between current AI cycle & dot-com era: "...there aren't as many companies that are making bets that don't have business models...there's such a concentration of spend from highly profitable, strong balance sheet, strong cash flow companies".
• Cisco CFO: "AI infrastructure orders taken from hyperscalers in Q1 totaled $1.3B,...marking a significant acceleration in growth & demonstrating our strength for advanced AI use cases. We expect to recognize ~$3B in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in Fiscal 26."
• Cisco Systems double beat + raises FY guidance. CEO: "We had a solid start to FY 26 & Cisco is on track to deliver our strongest year yet." CFO: "We delivered a strong quarter, with top and bottom-line performance exceeding our guidance...". $CSCO: +5% AH. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.90 +.15%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.3 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 84.9 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.08% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Sector Rotation, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +1.0%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .59 -42.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 84.8 -1.3% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.92 +.22%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 202.9 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.3 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.9 +3.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 153.0 -3.0

• Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%

• NYSE Arms .96 -4.0%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$5.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.2 +.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.22 +.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 245.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.6 -.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 73.0 -2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 134.4 -.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.45 -.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.75 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -6.25 basis points unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 126.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 611.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 +.02%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.06% -6.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.87% +4.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.9 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.8 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 33.6 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(457 of 500 reporting) +11.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 301.53 +.08:  Growth Rate +15.2% unch., P/E 22.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 496.61 +.43: Growth Rate +22.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.5 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .63 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.85 +36.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.0 unch.
• US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.0% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% +1.9 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.65 -4.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.4% (-.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 38.5%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +187 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +89 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.0% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Electrification -1.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LNW, LOAR, GFS, HNRG, LEGN, FLNG, LCID, EOSE, NBIS, CCOI, MENS, ALKS, DOX, TME, NXT, CRCL, DQ and DGNX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CL 2) ONON 3) ADI 4) AR 5) MTSR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BTAI 2) PSNY 3) SMWB 4) QUIK 5) TME

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) FDN 3) XLB 4) EUFN 5) KBWB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +4.6% 2) Steel +2.6% 3) Airlines +2.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MH, CNTA, ONON, NVA, PERI, IMTX, ORLA, BILL, KALV, CWAN, ONC, ICHR, AMD, OKLO, LIVN, CENX, AXTI, GILT, AA, AU, GSAT, EAT, VERA, SPT, FUN, TSEM, SPT, AG, FDMT, BIRK, REZI, ALB, FIGS, LIF, SLM, DORM, FND, CDE, CMG, STLD, EXPE, COLL, RXO, DAL, NIQ, IE, LOMA, B, AUGO, CELH, SONY, ALC, HTFL, PRMB, SD, HBM, GTES, SKWD, QDEL, HSY, COKE, BNTX, FRO, KROS, CEF and CNNE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JEF 2) HNRG 3) MT 4) PRMW 5) ONON

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ONON 2) AMD 3) LBRA 4) MH 5) PERI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) XLK 4) IGV 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume