Stocks Reversing Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Fed Behind The Curve Fears, Crypto Plunge Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.5 +2.2%
  

• US Energy Sector High-Yield OAS Index 355.3 +.9%
• US Tech Sector High-Yield OAS Index 434.9 +1.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 223.0 +2.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.3 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 74.0 +1.0 basis point

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.3 -1.4%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 137.6 +.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 basis points -1.25 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -5.5 basis points -1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.5 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 132.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 613.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 56.0 -2.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.2%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% -2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.86% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.2 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -3.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -2.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(460 of 500 reporting) +11.5% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 302.31 +.54:  Growth Rate +15.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 22.3 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.51% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +10.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 498.69 +1.39: Growth Rate +22.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.9 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .51 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.24 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.6 -.3
• US Yield Curve 52.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.1% +.1 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.2% -.6 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.85% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.63 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 48.7% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 42.8%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -640 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -109 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -109 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and my emerging market shorts 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -3.0% 2) I-Banks -3.0% 3) Computer Services -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SEE, DAVE, MRP, LOGI, CRBG, FOXF, ARMK, DB, IRTC, EXPE, BZH, HTFL, OWL, CRCL, EGAN, COIN, DELL, XPEV, YMM, LCID, LB, CSIQ, FLY and ROCK

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DGXX 2) JETS 3) FLG 4) KD 5) OWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NXXT 2) STUB 3) SOC 4) DELL 5) XPEV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IBB 2) IETC 3) AIRR 4) SOXX 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electrification +1.7% 2) Biotech +1.3% 3) Pharma +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PACS, DGNX, ZYME, JAZZ, NUVL, LBRX, JKS, DYN, HYMC, KC, TERN, SQM, AVTX, PGNY, FIGR, QUBT, ASND, EAT, GRAL, KOD, ALB, WPP, SNDK, EYE, KALV, ZIM, CCOI, UPB, COCO, MLYS, SBGI, LITE, ARQT, AMN, ONC, PARR, NBIS, CRSP, JBS, SE, RZLT, AXSM, GOOG, ZBIO, PHVS, MSIF, BCH, VAC, HTHT and SRDX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) JETS 2) XLU 3) CDZI 4) PACS 5) AS

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) JAZZ 2) QUBT 3) ALB 4) SSP 5) FIGR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FTXL 2) XLV 3) XLY 4) VGT 5) MSTY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACM)/1.34
• (AS)/.25
• (BIDU)/7.69
• (ENR)/1.12
• (HD)/3.84
• (MDT)/1.31
• (PDD)/16.59
• (WB)/.41 

After the Close: 

• (DLB)/.70
• (HP)/.23
• (LZB)/.54
• (POWL)/3.78
• (SQM)/.65 

Economic Release 

8:15 am EST

• ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate. 

8:30 am EST

• Import/Export Indices Delayed by Government Shutdown.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Nov.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production Delayed by Government Shutdown.

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov. is estimated at 37.0 versus 37.0 in Oct.
• Factory Orders for Aug. is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a -1.3% decline in July.
• Factory Orders Ex Trans for Aug. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in July.
• Final Durable Goods readings for Aug.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, RBC Tech/Media/Telecom/Internet Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Roth Tech Conference, Scotiabank Transport/Industrials Conference, (FCX) investor meeting, (SNDK) annual meeting, (APTV) investor day, (UPWK) investor day, (ORCL) annual meeting and the Deutsche Bank Space Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -15.7% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 -1.1
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 36.0% of Issues Advancing, 62.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 -10.5% 
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$49.2M
  
• 38 New 52-Week Highs, 101 New Lows
• 58.5% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.0 -2.3

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 23.0% unch.
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 33% -2.0 percentage points 
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 16.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 37.0% -3.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 89.5 -.2%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 432.0 +3.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.1 -.4%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.2 -.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.6 -26.7%
  
• Vix 20.7 +4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 +2.2%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Donald Trump said proposed Senate legislation to sanction countries conducting business with Russia would be “okay with me,” his strongest indication yet that he would support a monthslong push to strangle Moscow’s funding.
• The US State Department said Sunday it plans to designate a Venezuelan drug cartel as a foreign terrorist organization and cited the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, as its leader.
• Shiseido shares fell after China cautioned its citizens against traveling to and studying in Japan amid a deepening diplomatic row between the nations. 
• Keir Starmer’s government plans to make it easier to remove migrants with no rights to stay in the UK, as the prime minister seeks to gain control of the political narrative.
• Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters over the summer, supporting Prime Minister Takaichi’s case to compile an ambitious economic stimulus package
  . 
• N. Chandrababu Naidu has been a key figure in driving tech investment in India since the 1990s. Now, as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, he wants to turn the state into the nation's next growth engine — with a little help from Google. 
• US airlines will be able to resume normal operations starting Monday after more than a week of government-mandated flight reductions.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s proposal to send $2,000 “dividend” payments from tariffs to US citizens would require congressional approval. 
• Bond traders are bracing for a deluge of data that will solidify expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve will continue the interest-rate cuts that have driven US Treasuries to the biggest gains since 2020. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Hedge Fund CIO: "Everyone Is Positioning For 2026, When Trump Will Do Everything Imaginable To Win The Midterms".
• What's The Right Way To Think About AI: Late 1990s Industrial Buildout, Or Another Existential "Nuclear Arms Race" Against China?
• NOW - Trump on Tucker Carlson's interview with Nick Fuentes "you can't tell him who to interview... if he wants to interview Nick Fuentes, I don't know much about him, but if he wants to do it, get the word out, let him... ultimately, people have to decide." 
• Corporate Bankruptcies On Pace For 15-Year High As More "Isolated Incidents" To Occur. 
• Morgan Stanley's 2026 Outlook: "The Year Of Risk Reboot". 
• US Installed Nearly 26 GW Of New Generating Capacity From January To August. 
• ICE & Border Patrol Begin Sweeping Deportation Raids On Criminal Illegals In Charlotte. 
• Rotation, pAIn, Or Smooth Sailing?
• "The consumer has not seen significant tariff impacts given that manufacturers, retailers, and others have shared in incurring some of these costs and mitigating price escalation to the consumer" -Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero. 
• *BESSENT: HOPE TO COMPLETE CHINA MAGNET DEAL BY THANKSGIVING. 
• The Debt-Reduction Playbook: Can Today's Governments Learn From The Past?
• AI still getting upgraded. Earnings revisions across AI-exposed equities since the start of 4Q Bullish. 
• Despite Friday's Buying Spree, Goldman Sees Client Sentiment As "Guarded...", Warns "Tails Are Getting Fatter".
• Data Center Volatility, Batteries And The Electric Grid's New Reality. 
• Beginning Of A Revolution? Populist Revolt Shocks Mexico. 
• Goldman Sees Brighter US Housing Outlook Taking Shape For 2026.
• After Tucker Carlson Exposé, FBI Director Patel Says Trump Rally Shooter Thomas Crooks Acted Alone.
• The Foreign Worker Scam Exposes Trump's Economic Achilles Heel. 
• The East China Sea crisis 2.0 arrives. 
• Epstein adviser Michael Wolff said 'Epstein believed that it was Trump who first informed the police about what was going on in Epstein's house.' Wolff said he heard that directly from Epstein.
• The Socialist Mayor Clown Show Is Truly Something To Behold.
• US Needs More Gas Infrastructure, Storage To Support Electric Grid: NARUC.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: The laws of politics can be changed, but not economics.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as investors look toward slate of economic data in region.
• Goldman Sachs unveils its 10-year playbook — and AI is at the heart of it.
• Stock futures are little changed to start the week: Live updates.   
• A simple reason why the biggest investors say they aren't worried about AI bubble, tech stock selling. 
• Earnings playbook: Nvidia, retailers headline the tail end of the season.

• @WSJ.com

• Watch: One year into his tenure, here’s how Nike’s new CEO is trying to reinvigorate the company to fix flagging innovation and dropping sales.

• @MattForVA

• You know why we’ll never get Epstein files, J6 accountability, JFK files, MLK files, end big pharma corruption, etc… etc…? Because the Epstein files aren’t the only blackmail list. You think Epstein had a monopoly on blackmail? Why do you think Big Pharma gets to kill people and not be punished? In fact, they get rewarded. Why do you think DOGE was stopped in its tracks? Why are so many bad actors in this administration untouchable? Why has nobody been arrested? Because while we focus on Epstein, the blackmail ring continues. Do you not think Epstein was replaced? Mossad lost him, and they just abandoned the most successful mission in their history? The fact is, you don't make it to certain levels of government & politics without them having control of you.

• @TheSCIF

• CLERK OF COURTS: INTERNET ACCESS PHONE CHIPS FOUND IN VOTING MACHINES. This is the "Weaponization of government" and election fraud at its finest. How do we stop the fraud when the votes can be flipped? (video)
• President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum’s reign of terror is coming to an end, especially after the cartel assassination hit on Mayor Carlos Manzo. Manzo was the seventh mayor killed in the state since 2022 and the second high-profile assassination in a two-week span. The good people of the Mexican anti-cartel rebellion has reached presidential palace in Mexico City. The people around the world are awake and the same will follow for all tyrannical governments connected to the cabal and cartels. (video)

• @KobeissiLetter  

• KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK: 1. NY Fed Manufacturing data - Monday. 2. Fed Meeting Minutes - Wednesday. 3. Nvidia, $NVDA, Reports Earnings - Wednesday. 4. September Jobs Report - Thursday. 5. Philly Fed Manufacturing data - Thursday. 6. October Existing Home Sales data- Thursday. 7. November Services PMI data - Friday. 8. November Manufacturing PMI data - Friday. 9. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday. 10. MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday. 11. Total of 14 Fed Speaker Events This Week. Buckle up folks, economic data is back.

• @GenFlynn

• We The People must cause our own @realDonaldTrump administration to start focusing on AMERICA FIRST (what he campaigned on) or we are going to find ourselves in a situation similar to what we’re witnessing just over our southern border. There is only so much corruption that human beings can take. Mexico is rife with it and it emanates from the criminal cartels that run the country and have for many years. And these cartels run freely across America and have for years now (despite the bravery of our local law enforcement professionals). Inside of America, we have something akin to these cartels and we call them politicians. Too often, too many stay in power too long and they become corrupted. 
• The Epstein Affair is not going away. It is about the abuse of children by an “elite” social class of people who have always believed they are untouchable. No More!

• @wallstengine

• AI STRESS TEST WEEK AS NVIDIA REPORTS: Mon: $XPEV, $ARBE, $TCOM. Tues: $HD, $BIDU, $PDD, $MDT, $FUTU, $KLAR, $POWL, $LZB. Wed: $TGT, $LOW, $TJX, $WIX, $GLBE, $BLSH, $NVDA, $PANW, $CENC. Thu: $WMT, $ZIM, $NTES, $BBWI, $VNET, $INTU, $BULL, $GAP, $ESTC, $ROST. Fri: $BJ, $MNSO.

• @disclosetv

• NEW - British government is "withholding data that may link Covid jab to excess deaths" as it would lead to "distress or anger."

• @StockMKTNewz

• Apple $AAPL is reportedly stepping up its succession planning efforts as it prepares for Tim Cook to step down as CEO as soon as next year - Financial Times.

• @GuntherEagleman

• It’s been almost 11 months and not 1 secure election law has been passed. Pathetic.

• @ElectionWiz

• BREAKING — PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS ON HOUSE REPUBLICANS TO VOTE TO RELEASE EPSTEIN FILES. “We have nothing to hide,” he adds.

• @Partisan_12

• Thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv, demanding an official investigation into the events of October 7, 2023. (video)

• @ChildrensHD

• Joe Rogan says it’s unbelievable that people were furious at the unvaccinated — but had zero anger for the people who created the virus. “No anger towards the people that created the disease.” “Once the information came out (lab leak)… nobody got angry.” “You’re angry at people that didn’t want to get vaccinated and you didn’t get angry at the person who used science to create a horrible disease… that killed who knows how many people. That didn’t make you mad?” (video)

• @AlpacaAurelius

• so you're telling me sunscreen was invented in the 1940s, people spend 90% of their time indoors today and melanoma rates are up 6 TIMES since then.... definitely the sun causing it. (graph)

• @AlpacaAurelius

• so you're telling me sunscreen was invented in the 1940s, people spend 90% of their time indoors today and melanoma rates are up 6 TIMES since then.... definitely the sun causing it. (graph)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.11% 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 89.9 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% unch.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.1 -.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%.
• S&P 500 futures +.41%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.65%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.