Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Pre-Fed Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Biotech/Telecom Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.06%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +2.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.70% unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 +8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.1 -.2 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.6 +1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.18 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.48% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 510.79 +.31: Growth Rate +24.4% unch., P/E 32.6 +.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 unch.
• US Yield Curve 57.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.2% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.56 -6.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 67.5% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 52.7%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +420 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/utility/tech sector longs and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail -1.4% 2) Biotech -1.1% 3) Telecom -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• OLLI, CPB, ELAN, CWT, JPM, ELVN, FERG, WAY, LEGN, KYMR, CAL, GPK, CMP, SLM, DYN and PHR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) FITB 3) NTR 4) INFY 5) FLG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SLM 2) CMP 3) GAUZ 4) AAP 5) CAL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLV 3) ARKK 4) MAGS 5) ITB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +3.2% 2) Alt Energy +1.5% 3) I-Banking +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALEX, MAMA, AXTI, WVE, SGML, TFX, YOU, BMNR, PAAS, TERN, ARES, FULC, AAOI, STAA, WRBY, CRMD, ASO, XMTR, CRCL, DOCU, FROG, APO, CBLL, NGVT, CRWV, MSTR, LITE, OPCH, RELY, DXC, SYM, MESO, AIP, AS, SKE, SDRL, ILMN, KFY, IIIV, ABVX, KNSL, FLEX, DBVT, KEY, FFIV, SHAK, SPOT, CHOW, BX, GIII, WBD, APLD, ASAN, UL, STEP, INR and VITL 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RVPH 2) LION 3) CRON 4) MUB 5) FLEX 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DBI 2) MAMA 3) DGNX 4) NXXT 5) WVE

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) SMH 3) IGV 4) XBI 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHWY)/.12
• (PLAB)/.45
• (REVG)/.78 

After the Close: 

• (ADBE)/5.40
• (NNE)/-.50
• (NDSN)/2.93
• (ORCL)/1.64
• (OXM)/-.95
• (PL)/-.03
• (SNPS)/2.78
• (MTN)/-5.22 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 3Q is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +.9% gain in 2Q.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,155,830 barrels versus a +574,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,069,000  barrels versus a +4,518,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,421,330 barrels versus a +2,059,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.17% versus a +1.8% gain prior. 

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to cut the benchmark Fed Funds rate by -25.0 basis points to 3.5-3.75%.
• The Federal Budget Deficit is estimated at -$195.0B versus -$366.8B in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The FOMC presser, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for Dec., Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, Barclays Tech Conference, San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, Keybanc Consumer Conference, (CGNX) investor meeting and the (UNFI) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 -3.3
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 61.0% of Issues Advancing, 36.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 +76.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$109.6M
  
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
• 61.2% (+1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.4 +.4

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 32.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 26.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.8 +.5%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 419.0 -1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.3 +.1%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.3 -.01%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 11.4 +21.0%
  
• Vix 16.7 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 +4.8%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• EXCLUSIVE: Japan is embarking on its biggest military buildup in at least four decades as relations with China deteriorate. 
• As military tensions between China and Japan hit their highest level in more than a decade, the tiny island of Yonaguni, located just 110 km from Taiwan, is suddenly on the front line. @AlastairGale traveled to the island to find out how people are preparing for what comes next:
• Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she is closely watching market trends, as the yield on 10-year government debt hovers near 2%, a level not seen since 2006.
• President Trump threatened to impose an additional 5% tariff on imports from Mexico if the country did not release water that his administration says must be allowed to flow under a treaty.
• The US Department of Justice has detained two men for allegedly violating export control laws by attempting to smuggle at least $160 million worth of Nvidia AI chips to China. A third, the owner of a Houston company, has already pleaded guilty.  
• The CFTC will allow Bitcoin, Ether, and the dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC to be used as collateral for derivatives trades, a decision that pushes crypto deeper into the plumbing of US finance. 
• Global fund managers see this year’s surge in nuclear stocks continuing, on an improving regulatory outlook and demand drivers that extend beyond the voracious needs of AI.
• The CEOs of Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to meet with senators in both parties to discuss crypto market legislation that could soon come to a vote, according to a source. 
• Goldman’s clients are pulling back their bullish views on AI and US stocks following last month’s slide, with fresh survey data showing expectations for the S&P 500 turned much more conservative heading into 2026. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Japan Urges More Support From Trump In Spat With China. 
• Immigration Gone Wild.
• Gen Z, Socialism, And The System That Failed Them.
• I think most Europeans are actually completely ignorant about their track record for arrests for social media posts, probably because their press is captive and the data is almost always heavily censored / not released. But here are the facts:  
• BREAKING: NYC Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani has chosen to appoint Mysonne Linen, a convicted armed robber, to be on his City Hall transition team. You cannot make this up. 
• Americans Spent $2.6 Billion On OnlyFans In 2025.
• Hypersonics, AI, Space Weapons, & Directed Energy: Lawmakers Release Defense Bill As Expiring Obamacare Subsidies Marinate On Back-Burner.
• THIS IS A HUGE WIN!! Kavanaugh and Alito just shut down the “independent commission" scam. They said Congress cannot just make any Cabinet office an "independent commission," destroying the presidency, as they are not elected by the people and are not accountable to the people.   
• EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. Florida is designating the Muslim Brotherhood and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) as foreign terrorist organizations. Florida agencies are hereby directed to undertake all lawful measures to prevent unlawful activities by these organizations, including denying privileges or resources to anyone providing material support. @GovRonDeSantis. 
• NJ Governor Murphy Using Last Months In Office To Free 31 Convicted Killers...And Promises Even More.
• "Things Are About To Snap": China's Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion For The First Time, Sparking Global Howls Of Outrage.
• Trump Says He Has 'Other Methods' To Impose Tariffs If Supreme Court Limits Powers. 
• "Xi Responded Positively": NVDA Spikes After Trump Allows H200 Chip Exports To China. 
• Hawkish Lean Sparks Cross-Market Pain, Dollar Gain.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Investors are loving the Paramount-Warner Bros-Netflix drama. 
• Asia-Pacific markets set to slip, tracking Wall Street losses ahead of Fed rate decision. 
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are slightly higher as Trump approves Nvidia chips sales to China: Live updates. 
• ICEBlock developer sues U.S. government after DOJ demanded Apple remove app from store.
• Three more Wall Street firms came out with bullish 2026 outlooks. Here's why they see another upbeat year ahead.
• Here's what to expect in Paramount's quest to elbow out Netflix and buy Warner Bros. Discovery.
• Trump greenlights Nvidia H200 AI chip sales to China, says Xi responded positively.  

• @WSJ  

• Jamie Dimon is assembling a who’s who of business leaders, politicians and generals to advise JPMorgan on how to invest to protect the U.S. from foreign adversaries.
• Exclusive: PepsiCo struck an agreement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management, committing to cut costs across the company and lower prices in its slowing food business.

• @TheTranscript

• $AMAT CFO: "...we don't think it's only AI. We don't think that if AI demand suddenly dropped that there would be a significant change in the semiconductor equipment forecast. We don't think so".

• @LauraLoomer

• High level sources confirm that individuals inside Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's office are leaking directly to Joe Biden's former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, whose wife is Rep Maggie Goodlander @RepGoodlander, a member of the Seditious Six currently under FBI investigation for encouraging mutiny against President Trump! I uncovered FEC records that show Goodlander maxed out donations to Driscoll’s 2020 campaign. Why is the wife of a Deep State operative bankrolling the Army Secretary? We cannot afford to have Deep State moles or leakers inside the Pentagon, and this failure proves that we need much stricter vetting for every single person who steps foot inside this administration!

• @GenFlynn

• It is time for the United States to pull out of NATO and refocus on enemies that are inside of our gates. NATO nations minus the U.S. is essentially the European Union (EU). They want globalism. They want fascism. They want Islamism. They want open borders. They want censorship. They need our money. They need our military. They need us, we don’t need them. @realDonaldTrump They HATE you. Stop kidding yourself. Everything “they” do is adverse to U.S. interests and our national security. Before we face civilizational suicide, let’s stop pretending and rip the euro-centric bandaid off and start focusing on our real enemies. AMERICA FIRST (AF) means, among others, laser focusing on our Homeland.

• @MJTruthUltra

• This is a pretty big deal…Attorney Peter Ticktin, representing Tina Peters, just sent President Trump an urgent letter stating Tina Peters is a CRITICAL MATERIAL WITNESS against Dominion and its employees, who operated an ILLEGAL OPERATION, supported and controlled by foreign actors, to STEAL the 2020 Election. “She holds the only surviving forensic copy of Colorado’s 2020 Dominion voting data and must be pardoned immediately so she can testify and expose the theft of the presidency. Dominion, and its employees, operated an illegal operation on our soil which was supported and controlled by foreign actors. The Colorado Secretary of State, Jena Griswold, aided and abetted Dominion and foreign countries in targeting Mesa County Clerk, Tina Peters.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Benjamin Netanyahu declares that Israel will have total sovereign control from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea as the nation rises from a secondary power to a primary one. He says Israel is entering a “new age,” claiming the country is on the cusp of an era where technology becomes the driving force behind everything. “We can lead this and become not a secondary power but a primary power.” (video)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: President Trump RIPS the Senate GOP and Chuck Grassley for letting Democrats obstruct his appointment of US Attorney Alina Habba and others *SEVEN* US Attorneys will have to quit soon because the GOP IS DOING NOTHING. "If I put up GEORGE WASHINGTON [in] Virginia where you have Dem Senators, they won't approve him! This gentlemen's agreement [blue slip] has lasted TOO LONG. It means you can't appoint a GOP US Attorney!" "In VA, NJ, CA, a US Attorney or judge...the only people you can get by are Democrats because they put a HOLD ON IT!" "It only takes one senator! If they are Democrat, they won't approve it." "All because GRASSLEY with his BLUE SLIP stuff won't let anybody go by! And by the way, Democrats have violated blue slip!" (video)

• @MaryBowdenMD

• The former head of the CDC - who was in office when the COVID shots were authorized - is now calling for the shots to be pulled off the market.

• @Hedgeye

• JUST IN: The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline reaches the lowest level in over 4 years. This is big for the consumer. (map)

• @JoshHall2024

• BREAKING: Attorney General Pam Bondi started her political career as a Democrat before switching to the Republican Party out of pure political calculation to win elective office in the state of Florida. Pam’s Republican credentials have always been questionable and with her refusal to prosecute any prominent Democrats who have been so clearly implicated in a laundry list of federal crimes, questions are starting to arise as to where Blondi’s loyalties truly lie. We are almost one year in to President Trump’s second term and this is one very logical explanation as to why there have been no real Deep State indictments to date. Is Pam Bondi doing political favors for and protecting her old fellow Democrat friends? Or is the old stereotype about blondes true and she just is really clueless as to how to prosecute someone? Whatever the case may be, the American people are DEMANDING ANSWERS because we are quickly losing faith in our two-tiered justice system. This trend of lifelong former Democrats serving in this administration is HIGHLY DISTURBING. President Trump: FIRE PAM BLONDI NOW! (pic)
• BREAKING: In case you’re wondering why The DOJ isn’t indicting any of The Deep State or treasonous Democrats, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche was a lifelong Democrat before joining the Trump administration this year. Just like Mike Pence… Once a Democrat, always a Democrat. He isn’t there to prosecute them… He is there to protect them and sabotage President Trump from within. 

• @LeadingReport

• BREAKING: 𝕏 is now the #1 news app in every EU country, amid attempts by the EU to censor the platform.

• @Rasmussen_Poll

• Criminal foreign interference in our elections was long a cudgel used by Dem's to accuse Republicans of illegal manipulations that installed Donald Trump. Turns out, China, Venezuela, Russia & Iran had instead been installing far left Dem's here for years - including this guy. 
• List of Specific Alleged Stolen U.S. Elections to Save. @CannConActual "Awfully specific given the grand scale of election fraud. Are you claiming the evidence of these specific elections will be revealed?" @PatrickByrne "Yes i am." (list)

• @realtinapeters

• TRAVESTY. Tina Peters Habeas petition has been DISMISSED by Judge Varholak! READ: (pic)

• @RenzTom

• More DOJ fraud, collusion, corruption, and inaction… Tell me again that Bondi just needs more time. She is doing exactly what Wiles hired her to do: make excuses and throw cases until Trump's clock runs out. 
• Is the Bondi DOJ putting the lead prosecutor for J6 in charge of the pipe bomb case? Is this like putting Comey’s daughter in charge of the Diddy trial? The DOJ is throwing important cases and not filing others. Wiles put Bondi in their AG seat, and now Bondi is actively undermining Trump and MAGA. How else do you explain this? As an attorney, I can tell you these aren’t oversights—this is inexcusable and, after this many occurrences, it looks intentional. We need other, bigger influencers to stand for @realDonaldTrump by telling him. 

• @amuse 

• UKRAINE: After years defending Zelensky and opposing audits, the NYT now admits billions in aid were stolen by his inner circle. Democrats blocked oversight. The corruption is finally undeniable. The only question is where is all of the money?

• @KariLake

• Arrests please!! The most important clip you will ever watch. @MikeBenzCyber lays out what appears to be the Swamp's plot to overthrow the government and destroy Trump and his supporters. Every person at this June 2020 meeting must be investigated. Perhaps more than a few should be facing treason, insurrection, or sedition charges. (video)

• @RealHickory

• In 30 days, the statute of limitations expires on one of the greatest crimes ever committed against the American people, Nancy Pelosi's J6 Insurrection hoax! After that, everyone involved will have gotten away with it. If indeed that happens, that will be a worse crime!

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.16 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.3 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.17% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.39% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.07%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.