Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ  
  • @TheTranscript 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.7 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.39% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 +1.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.6%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Than Expected Fed, Stable Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.03%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.16% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.68% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.6 euros/megawatt-hour -3.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.8 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.7 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.9% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.31 +.13:  Growth Rate +13.8% unch., P/E 22.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +17.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.01 +.22: Growth Rate +24.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.4 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.36 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.3 +.1
  • US Yield Curve 59.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.3% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 -8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 28th FOMC meeting: 73.4% (+3.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for March 18th meeting: 55.0%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +270 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/utility/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

 

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -1.6% 2) Road & Rail -1.1% 3) Restaurants -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • APAM, STAA, GME, RACE, MELI, CASY, SGRY, CMP, DBX, UBER, WVE, MAMA, DNLI and AVAV 
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) VFC 2) CHWY 3) CBRL 4) JETS 5) CIEN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CART 2) VG 3) GAUZ 4) RIG 5) UEC
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLF 3) IVES 4) XLK 5) KRE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Regional Banks +1.4% 2) Steel +1.3% 3) Homebuilding +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • OCG, PLAB, WRBY, BRZE, DBVT, GEV, OLMA, DAKT, STOK, PLAY, RZLT, DXYZ, VOYG, AAOI, COLD, SATS, SUPX, FLY, JBTM, AHCO, RELY, TRVI, ADPT, HLF, MGPI, LSPD, DYN, AZTA, ASTS, NVST, LINE, WBD, DFH, MCHB, OMC, CHYM, NX, HSBC, RAPT, BDX, EEFT, MMYT, ADEA, APG, PHR, ALLY, TERN, ABVX, HNI, GPK, PEP, LNC and CNM 
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BRZE 2) MREO 3) COMP 4) CRON 5) CHWY 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GEV 2) PLAB 3) DAKT 4) NXDR 5) BRZE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) XLV 3) XLY 4) VDC 5) XLE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CIEN)/.78
  • (LOVE)/-.69 
After the Close: 
  • (AVGO)/1.87
  • (COST)/4.27
  • (LULU)/2.21
  • (RH)/2.16 
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 220K versus 191K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1942K versus 1939K prior.
  • The Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -$63.0B versus -$59.6B in Aug. 
10:00 am EST
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kroszner speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, IEA monthly report, (OPEC) monthly report, (OSIS) annual meeting, (BILL) annual meeting, (SFIX) annual meeting, (FN) annual meeting, KeyBanc Consumer Conference, San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium and the Barclays TMT Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -20.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -.1
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 61.0% of Issues Advancing, 36.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .99 -3.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$71.9M
  • 84 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 61.5% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.8 +1.4
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 25.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 42.0% +10.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 14.0% unch.
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Dec. 31st 27.0% +1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.2 -.6%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 424.5 +6.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.3 +.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.4 -1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.4 +12.6%
  • Vix 17.0 +.6%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -11.6%