Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Friday, May 25, 2007
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Bloomberg:
- Dow Jones’(DJ) owners and directors were sued by a shareholder seeking to compel acceptance of a $5 billion buyout offer by News Corp.(NWS/A) Chairman Rupert Murdoch.
- US Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, laying out her first presidential health-policy agenda since the failed attempt during her husband’s administration, said she would bar insurers from “cherry picking” profitable enrollees.
- Rational decision makers would normally quake at warnings about the casino mentality in
- President Bush said war funding legislation moving through Congress sets out a “clear road map” for progress by the Iraqi government and that the next few months will be a crucial period in the conflict.
- Nasdaq Stock Market(NDAQ), trailing NYSE Euronext in the race to expand into Europe, may say as early as today that it’s buying
- A “large” appreciation of the yuan would hurt China’s economy, Vice Premier Wu Yi said, signaling the nation won’t cave in to US demands for faster gains to ease the
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- Congress approved $120 billion in emergency spending for military operations and domestic projects after dropping
- Pakistan’s economic progress is being threatened by terrorism and extremism that may force the country to reverts to backwardness, said President Pervez Musharraf.
- World sugar output will rise by 1.2% to 163.3 million metric tons during the 2007-2008 crop year, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to a 25-year high, the US Foreign Agricultural Service said.
NY Times:
- The number of eighth graders in NY who passed an annual English test increase for the first time since 1999.
CNBC:
- Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone will be available June 20, citing an unidentified AT&T phone store. Apple spokesman Steve Dowling declined to comment on the report. The device will be available in late June, Dowling said, reiterating earlier comments from Apple.
Shanghai Securities News:
- Stock brokers in
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (SNDK), target $52.
- Reiterated Buy on (KYPH), target $54.
- Reiterated Buy on (VAR), target $52
Morgan Stanley:
- Demand for LCD-TVs seems stronger than we had expected. 6G lines are being stretched to capacity as large models penetrate further, and 32” LCD panels are in serious shortage. Panel prices are rising at a 2% MoM clip.
Business Week:
- Billionaire investor George Soros acquired a 12% stake in Bioenvision Inc.(BIVN), a biopharmaceutical company focused on certain types of cancer. SCO Financial CEO Steven Rouhandeh said share of the company could reach $20 a share if its clofarabine drug is approved for adult use in
- YRC Worldwide(YRCW), the largest
- Shares of Amgen Inc.(AMGN) will rise 17% in a year, citing chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%.
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Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note
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Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Existing Home Sales for April are estimated at 6.12M versus 6.12M in March.
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Profit-taking and Emerging Market Worries
Stocks Sharply Lower into Final Hour on Profit-taking and Emerging Market Worries
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Semi longs and Computer longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is very negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, every sector is lower and volume is heavy. "High-school dropout" copper is getting pounded 3.4% today and is down almost 17% in less than a month, even as
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Russ Koesterich, who helps manage $1.8 trillion at Barclays Global Investors, said today’s New Home Sales report was “unambiguously good.”
- Crude oil is falling $1.53/bbl. because of a glut of oil at
- Gold is falling another $8/oz. to a two-month low in NY as a gain in the value of the dollar reduced demand for the precious metal and worries over emerging market demand rose.
- Copper futures in NY fell the most in more than three months on speculation that supplies in
- Shares of Greenlight Capital(GLRE), the reinsurer led by hedge fund manager David Einhorn, surged on their first day of trading as investors bet on his ability to manage the company’s portfolio.
- Dell Inc.(DELL) said it will sell personal computers at Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), in the biggest step away from its direct-sales strategy since the company was dethroned by Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) as the industry leader.
Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup Inc.(C), one of the biggest issuers of credit cards in the
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- Goldman Sachs Group(GS) started a market to trade stakes in companies that want to avoid the oversight and costs of going public.
- Services from SimulScribe.com and SpinVox Ltd. that convert voice mail messages to text are quite useful.
- Democratic strategist Robert Shrum, who worked on John Edwards’ 1998 North Carolina Senate campaign, is critical of Edwards in a new book. In Shrum’s memoir, “No Excuses: Concessions of a Serial Campaigner,” he wrote that he asked Edwards at the beginning of the 1998 campaign about his position on gay marriage. Shrum wrote that Edwards replied, “I’m not comfortable around those people,” to which his wife, Elizabeth said “John, you know that’s wrong.”
Reuters:
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Interfax:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country’s $113.7 billion Stabilization Fund won’t be invested in Russian stocks.
Yonhap News:
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Durable Goods Rise for 3rd Consecutive Month, Job Market Healthy, News Home Sales Soar Most in 14 Years, New Home Inventories Fall Most in 26 Years
- Durable Goods Orders for April rose .6% versus estimates of a 1.0% gain and an upwardly revised 5.0% increase in March.
- Durables Ex Transports for April rose 1.5% versus estimates of a .6% increase and an upwardly revised 1.5% gain in March.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 311K versus estimates of 305K and 296K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2529K versus estimates of 2495K and 2471K prior.
- New Home Sales for April rose to 981K versus estimates of 860K and 844K in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Orders for durable goods recorded a third straight gain last month, the longest streak in almost two years, confirming that manufacturing will help buoy the economy, Bloomberg reported. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a gauge of future business investment, rose 1.2% versus a 4.4% jump the prior month. Manufacturers had a 1.47 month’s supply of durable goods on hand at the current sales pace, the lowest this year. The last time durables (excluding transports) rebounded this sharply in a three-month period was the first quarter of 2002. I continue to believe manufacturing will add to economic growth this quarter and help boost overall
The number of Americans filing first-time claims for state jobless benefits rose from a four-month low last week while remaining at a level that economists say shows resilience in the labor market, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving-average of jobless claims fell to 302,750, the lowest in more than a year. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the