S&P 500 1,282.83 -.72%*
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*5-Day ChangePortfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Indices
S&P 500 1,282.83 -.72%
DJIA 11,543.96 -.72%
NASDAQ 2,367.52 -1.95%
Russell 2000 739.50 +.26%
Wilshire 5000 13,061.77 -.52%
Russell 1000 Growth 547.22 -1.41%
Russell 1000 Value 684.07 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 688.42 -1.10%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 874.13 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Technology 560.09 -2.63%
Transports 5,103.40 +.92%
Utilities 477.52 -.51%
MSCI Emerging Markets 40.08 +.18%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 45,104 +9.14%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -183 +54.02%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 38.0 -30.9%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 205,459 +.55%
Total Put/Call .99 +15.12%
OEX Put/Call 1.98 +214.29%
ISE Sentiment 132.0 -12.58%
NYSE Arms 1.68 +82.60%
Volatility(VIX) 20.65 +9.78%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.33 +3.2%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,643.68 +2.46%
AAII % Bulls 30.68 -19.48%
AAII % Bears 45.45 +21.85%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 115.64 +.73%
Reformulated Gasoline 286.17 +2.26%
Natural Gas 8.02 +.62%
Heating Oil 320.0 +.95%
Gold 835.30 +.76%
Base Metals 219.21 -3.54%
Copper 337.95 -2.30%
Agriculture 409.98 -5.23%
Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.81% -6 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.14% -5 basis points
TED Spread 1.10 -2 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 142.93 +1.26%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 263.11 -.38%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +72.50 +58.30%
Fed Fund Futures 8.0% chance of 25 hike, 92.0% chance of no move on 9/16
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 74.0 -.29%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 440,300 -1.3%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.40% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 421,600 +.55%
Weekly Retail Sales +1.5%
Nationwide Gas $3.67/gallon -.02/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 20.0% above normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 125.50 -.24%
US Dollar Index 77.29 +.75%
Baltic Dry Index 6,929 -3.63%
CRB Index 391.71 -.78%
Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +.58%
Worst Performing Style
Large-cap Growth -1.41%
Leading Sectors
Gaming +4.68%
I-Banks +3.97%
Homebuilders +3.52%
Banks +3.11%
Road & Rail +2.94%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -1.86%
Foods -1.93%
Restaurants -2.85%
Semis -3.29%
Computer Hardware -3.32%
Bloomberg:
- Yields on agency mortgage securities fell to the lowest in a month relative to U.S. Treasuries after buyers took advantage of some of the widest spreads since 1986. The difference between yields on Fannie Mae's current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate bonds and 10-year government notes narrowed 10 basis points this week to 197 basis points, data compiled by Bloomberg show, reducing the cost of new home loans. The spread fell from 215 basis points on Aug. 18, the widest since March, when the gap set a 22-year high of 238 basis points.
- Sugar dropped for a third day in New York on speculation demand for fuel made from cane may decline as the U.S. economy slows. Motor fuel demand will fall in 2009 unless gasoline prices drop sharply or the economy picks up, the U.S. Energy Department said this week. In the first six months of this year consumption was 1.5 percent lower than the same period last year and will average 0.2 percent less in 2009, it said. Sugar demand will exceed supplies by about 3.3 million tons next year after an 11 million-ton surplus in the year ending Sept. 30, London-based Czarnikow Group Ltd. said in a report this week.
- Crude oil rose .10/bbl. as producers evacuated rigs before the arrival of Gustav, forecast to be the largest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina.
- Nintendo Co. raised its full-year profit forecast by 26 percent because of higher-than-anticipated sales of Wii and DS game players, sending the company's shares to their biggest gain in nine months.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), seeking to catch Google Inc. in the Internet-search market, agreed to buy Greenfield Online Inc.(SRVY) for $486 million to add Web sites that help consumers find product reviews and compare prices.
- India's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2004 last quarter as the fastest inflation in a decade and increased borrowing costs damped consumer spending.
- Europeans' confidence in the economic outlook fell more than economists forecast this month as the economy teetered on the brink of a recession.
Pacific Epoch:
- Rumor: China Mobile To Subsidize Apple’s(AAPL) iPhone.
- Venture capitalists today look far and wide for start-ups.
Reuters:
- The US dollar index on Friday was on pace for its best monthly performance since October 1992.
RIA Novosti:
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said a report that the country may cut oil exports should the European Union impose sanctions over
Market News International:
- The European Central Bank won’t change interest rates this year as it weighs slowing economic growth against inflation risks, citing “well-placed sources.” The ECB needs to see a persistent decline in inflation before discussing a change in its benchmark rate, another official said. The bank is not sure whether the economy will grow in the third quarter, he said.
Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Growth -1.22%
Sector Underperformers:
Computer Hardware irlind (-2.72%), Semis (-2.11%) and Coal (-1.74%)
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
DELL, WIND,
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) TIVO 2) DELL 3) SUN 4) LMT 5) HUN