Thursday, April 28, 2016

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    
  • China to Consider Starting Trading of Credit-Default Swaps. China is considering starting trading of credit-default swaps as the number of corporate nonpayments surges, according to people familiar with the matter. The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, a central bank subsidiary which oversees interbank market bonds, last month sought opinions on CDS and credit-linked notes from market participants including banks and brokerages, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the details haven’t been announced. China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which oversees interbank bond trading, held a meeting in Shanghai last week with some financial institutions on the products, they said.
  • ICBC Joins Bank of China in Breaching Bad-Loan Coverage Rule. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by assets, avoided posting a quarterly drop in profit after letting its buffer for covering bad loans fall below a regulatory minimum.  The bank’s provisions for bad loans stood at 141.2 percent of existing nonperforming credit, compared with a regulatory minimum of 150 percent, the Beijing-based lender said in a statement to Hong’s Kong stock exchange on Thursday. One of China’s biggest banks, Bank of China Ltd., this week reported that it had breached the minimum provision rule, the first lender to do so. Government officials are considering loosening the requirement, a move that would lend support to banks’ profits as the lenders digest an increased volume of bad loans.
  • London Luxury Hotels in Worst Year Since 2009 on Terror Risk. Jitters about everything from the risk of terrorism to Britain’s membership of the European Union are battering London luxury hotels as the world’s wealthiest travelers stay away. The city’s priciest hotels were only 65 percent occupied in the three months through March, according to data provider STR. That was the lowest for a first quarter since a global recession roiled the market in 2009 and down from 70 percent a year earlier. London’s top hotels include the Savoy and the recently reopened Lanesborough, where the Royal Suite with a complementary chauffeured Rolls-Royce costs about 25,000 pounds ($36,000) per night. 
  • China's Stocks, Bonds, Yuan Are a Triple Losing Bet This Month. For the first time in two years, China’s stocks, bonds and currency are all a losing proposition. The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 1.9 percent in April to a one-month low, the yuan is down 0.5 percent versus the dollar, while government and corporate bonds have tumbled, with the five-year sovereign yield rising 27 basis points. Only the nation’s commodities markets are looking buoyant as frenzied speculation prompted exchanges to take measures to cool trading.
  • Europe Stocks Inch Higher Amid Mixed Earnings as Miners Advance. (video) European stocks edged higher as gains in commodity producers helped erase an earlier drop and investors assessed earnings reports. Anglo American Plc and ArcelorMittal jumped more than 6.9 percent, tracking metal prices higher. Banking results were also at the fore. Deutsche Bank AG rose 4 percent after it posted a surprise profit. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA slid 6.8 percent after its quarterly earnings tumbled 54 percent, missing estimates. Lloyds Banking Group Plc lost 1.7 percent after its revenue and net income fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent at the close of trading. It fell as much as 1.5 percent earlier as the Bank of Japan refrained from boosting stimulus
  • Billionaire Icahn Exits Apple Stake 3 Years After Buying. Billionaire Carl Icahn, who first disclosed his stake in Apple Inc. almost three years ago, has sold out of his position, the activist said Thursday. Icahn sold most of his remaining stake in February, Icahn told CNBC. Apple shares declined 1.7 percent as of 2:11 p.m. in New York, giving the company a market value of about $527 billion. They dropped more than 7 percent this year through Wednesday.
  • Hamptons Home Sales Decline to Three-Year Lows. (video)
  • Snapchat User Content Fuels Jump to 10 Billion Daily Video Views. The majority of people using Snapchat Inc.’s application are making videos, fueling a boom in watching them, the company is telling its investors. More than a third of Snapchat’s daily users create “Stories,” broadcasting photos and videos from their lives that last 24 hours, according to people familiar with the matter. Now users are watching 10 billion videos a day on the application, up from 8 billion in February, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.
  • Abbott(ABT) to Buy St. Jude Medical(STJ) in Deal Valued at About $25 Billion. (video) Abbott Laboratories agreed to buy heart-device maker St. Jude Medical Inc. for $25 billion, its biggest ever acquisition as the industry consolidates to gain bargaining power with hospitals. St. Jude Medical shareholders will receive $46.75 in cash and 0.8708 shares of Abbott common stock, representing a total of approximately $85 per share, according to a statement Thursday.
Fox News:
  • Three relatives of San Bernardino shooter arrested. (video) Three relatives of the San Bernardino terrorists who killed 14 in December were arrested Thursday on federal conspiracy, marriage fraud and false statement charges, the FBI announced. The arrests don’t appear to stem from any actions related to the terror attack, but rather a marriage-for-citizenship scam allegedly enacted between Enrique Marquez, Jr. and Mariya Chernykh. Marquez is already in jail and awaiting trial for conspiring with one of the San Bernardino attackers, Syed Rizwan Farook, in terror plots that never materialized. Marquez is also accused of supplying weapons to Farook and his wife for the San Bernardino attack.
CNBC: 
  • Kensho stats: Surging yen may keep lid on stocks. "The U.S. dollar and yen relationship has been a primary driver of the bull market in equities — as cheap borrowing costs in Japan and a rising dollar have fueled a global carry trade. That trade appears to be unwinding," BKCM's Brian Kelly wrote in note to clients Thursday
  • Apple(AAPL) feels a market force even more powerful than gravity. There's a frightening reason Apple disappointed investors this quarter that doesn't start and end with how much it trailed Wall Street consensus estimates. Same goes for Google, Microsoft, Netflix, Visa and Starbucks. Yes, all these companies disappointed investors in earnings or outlook for the rest of 2016. But here's the fundamental disappointment across all the companies for anyone who follows the market. In a word: overcapacity.
Zero Hedge:  
Business Insider:
Fortune: 
Reuters:
  • EXCLUSIVE-China securities regulator orders major commodities exchanges to control futures speculation-sources. China's securities regulator ordered the country's major commodity futures exchanges this week to control speculative trading activity, sources told Reuters, after a surge in prices sparked fears of a boom-and-bust cycle. In response, commodity futures exchanges in Dalian, Shanghai and Zhengzhou ordered major institutional investors that lack a commodities background to rein in their trading, three people with direct knowledge of the situation said. The sources didn't define what was meant by a lack of background in commodities. Investors, including hedge funds and retail investors, have placed big bets on Chinese commodities futures this year, driving up contracts including in iron ore, rebar, cotton and even eggs. The rally has prompted many analysts to warn of similarities with a boom in the country's stock markets, which reversed into a sharp crash last summer.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders -3.6% 2) I-Banks -2.7% 3) Retail -1.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • INFN, GNC, ABT, OSIS, PHI, PRLB, XLNX, IPGP, HAR, FE, MTH, XL, DPZ, LOCK, STMP, CAVM, ADMS, NVDQ, VAC, SYNA, AME, AMX, CRR, RCII, TOWR, BC, SYMC, KN, WCIC, BMS, FSLR, SEE, ODFL, TER, CAH, UTHR, HOLX, VSI, CACI, THRM, AEL, TOWR, CRR and IVC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SYMC 2) DXJ 3) XLNX 4) JNPR 5) SYK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) INFN 2) SGI 3) UPL 4) HOLX 5) WCI
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer: 
  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +4.3% 2) Steel +2.3% 3) Oil Service +1.5% 
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: 
  • TXTR, DWA, STJ, FCN, SRPT, DLB, NTGR, MDVN, COMM, DGI, OSK, YNDX, FB, PPC, DLB, BGC, ASGN and LQ
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 
  • 1) WPZ 2) FTR 3) MJN 4) INFN 5) SIRI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 
  • 1) CCE 2) MANT 3) WFM 4) BMY 5) MUR
Charts:

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
 

  • China's $1 Trillion Bond Leverage Unwinds as Pimco Senses Panic. China’s bond traders are getting a painful lesson on the dangers of leverage. After years of racking up profits by borrowing cheaply and plowing the proceeds into higher-yielding debt, investors are now rushing to unwind those wagers amid the deepest selloff in 13 months. The bets are getting squeezed from both sides as bond prices sink and borrowing costs rise to one-year highs in the 8 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) market for repurchase agreements, used by traders to amplify their buying power.
  • China Factory Deflation Seen Turning on Commodities, Stimulus. China’s producer-price deflation, now in its fifth year, looks like it has turned a corner. Prices for products leaving the factory will improve in each of the next four quarters and turn positive in 2018, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Producer prices rose in March on a month-on-month basis for the first time since September 2013. The comeback is being driven by rising home and commodity prices, an avalanche of credit and a steep slowdown in manufacturing investment. That’s good news for companies because recovering factory prices boost revenues and help reduce real interest rates, easing the burden of repayment on corporate debt that’s equivalent to about 165 percent of gross domestic product.
  • BOJ Stimulus Never Less Effective as Cash Idles, Indicator Shows. A benchmark gauge shows the Bank of Japan’s stimulus has never been less effective and some bankers say negative interest rates have only made it harder to put cash to work in the economy. Consider the money multiplier. The measure of how much financial activity is spurred by an addition of cash by the central bank sank to the lowest on record last month, in data back to 2003. That’s even as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s bond buying has swelled the monetary base by around 170 percent since March 2013. Much of the injected funds are sitting idle, with bank deposits exceeding loans by close to an all-time high.
  • Asian Stocks Rally Before BOJ as Oil Holds Above $45; Yen Falls. Asian stocks rose for the first time in a week after the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate signals calmed markets before a forecast expansion of monetary stimulus in Japan. New Zealand’s dollar strengthened and crude oil held above $45 a barrel. All 10 industry groups advanced on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, led by raw-materials producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7 percent as of 11:08 a.m. Tokyo time, with the Topix halting a three-day drop to advance 1.1 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.3 percent.
  • Bill Gross: Smart Investors Know There's Something Wrong. (video)
  • Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid If You're Investing for the Long Run. Turning 30 just got a lot scarier. A coming collapse in investment returns means that people that age today will have to work seven years longer or save almost twice as much to end up with the same nest egg as those of roughly a generation ago. So says the research arm of McKinsey & Co. in a new report that argues that investors of all ages need to resign themselves to diminished gains. The consulting company maintains that the last 30 years have been a “golden era” of exceptional inflation-adjusted returns thanks to a confluence of factors that won’t be repeated.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Fed Signals No Rush to Raise Rates. Low inflation and possible ‘Brexit’ among concerns clouding a move at June meeting. Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and remained ambiguous about raising rates in June as mixed global economic signals and low inflation at home weighed on policy makers struggling to spark robust growth seven years after the recession’s end. 
  • Valeant Pharmaceuticals(VRX) to Make Sweeping Changes to Board. Four new directors and incoming CEO Papa are lined up to join the board of the drugmaker.
  • America’s Coming Tax Increase. With the deficit projected to hit 5% of GDP in only a decade, the choice is either spending cuts or tax hikes. In this bizarre election year, the leading candidates have failed to engage in a serious discussion of one of the top economic issues on voters’ minds—federal deficits and the national debt. Yes, Donald Trump suggested he’d wipe out the $14 trillion public debt in eight years. But even with the economic growth from his tax plan, this is highly unrealistic, and he now says he’d “rather not be so aggressive.” Still, he has proposed an enormous tax cut and promised not to tamper with Social Security or Medicare, all of which points... 
Fox News:
  • Cruz announces Fiorina as choice for running mate. (video) Ted Cruz, looking for a shake-up in the 2016 race as Donald Trump moves steadily closer to the Republican nomination, on Wednesday announced former GOP primary rival Carly Fiorina as his choice for running mate should he win the party nod.
CNBC:
  • Stinky first-quarter growth and lots of earnings. (video) With the Fed meeting out of the way, market focus shifts to the U.S. economy and Thursday's GDP report should show it barely grew in the first quarter. First-quarter growth was tracking at 0.7 percent, according to the latest CNBC/Moody's Analytics Rapid Update of economists' forecasts. The report is expected at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the same time as the release of weekly jobless claims.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph:
  • Europe doesn't work for Germany either, as Schauble's faux pas demonstrates. Such are the perils of speaking the truth. “Ultra low interest rate policies are 50pc responsible for the rise of the Alternative for Germany party”, Wolfgang Schäuble said recently in a characteristically blunt assessment of growing support for Germany’s far right. There followed a predictable flurry of condemnation, including chastisement from the president of Germany’s own Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, who saw it as a challenge to the independence of the European Central Bank. Thereby reprimanded, Mr Schäuble has since rowed back somewhat on his remarks.
  • The European Union always was a CIA project, as Brexiteers discover.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.75 -1.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 57.75 -. basis point
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.91 -.05%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate 

  • (AET)/2.23
  • (APD)/1.81
  • (ALXN)1.13
  • (MO)/.68
  • (ADP)/1.18
  • (BZH)/.02
  • (BMY)/.65
  • (CAH)/1.33
  • (CELG)/1.27
  • (CLF)/-.29
  • (CL)/.63
  • (COP)/-1.04
  • (DBD)/.16
  • (DPZ)/.98
  • (DOW)/.83
  • (F)/.47
  • (MA)/.85
  • (POT)/.15
  • (RTN)/1.38
  • (SEE)/.47
  • (UPS)/1.21
  • (VRX)/1.38
  • (VIA/B)/.72
  • (AMZN)/.59
  • (BIDU)/1.05
  • (EXPE)/-.73
  • (GILD)/3.13
  • (JNPR)/.38
  • (LNKD)/.60
  • (WYNN)/.82
  • (YRCW)/-.39
  • (WDC)/1.29 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 259K versus 247K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated at 2137K versus 2137K prior.
  • Advance 1Q GDP is estimated to rise +.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.4% gain.
  • Advance 1Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of +2.4% gain.
  • Advance 1Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +.6% versus a prior estimate of a +.9% gain.    
11:00 am EST
  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for April is estimated unch. versus -6.0 in March.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (UA) general meeting, (ARMH) general meeting and the (NXPI) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.25 +2.08%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.70 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.61 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.73 +4.64%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 +12.61%
  • Total Put/Call .86 +7.5%
  • NYSE Arms .67 -31.53
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.32 -.25%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,062.0 -1.98%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.27 -.12%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 26.18 -1.11%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 57.72 +.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 276.88 -1.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 127.23 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.93 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% unch.
  • Yield Curve 103.0 -4.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.09/Metric Tonne -2.69%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -27.80 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.80 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.50 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68% unch.
  • 33.2% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 49.9% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +175 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +49 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long