Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Dow Jones Industrial Average Surges to Another All-Time High as Interest Rates Drop and Optimism Rises

Indices
S&P 500 1,350.22 +1.21%
DJIA 11,850.61 +1.05%
NASDAQ 2,290.95 +2.11%
Russell 2000 733.47 +2.10%
Wilshire 5000 13,450.92 +1.27%
S&P Barra Growth 626.42 +1.40%
S&P Barra Value 721.72 +1.01%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 658.07 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 827.19 +1.06%
Morgan Stanley Technology 539.67 +2.11%
Transports 4,569.78 +2.24%
Utilities 432.95 +.38%
Put/Call .88 -24.79%
NYSE Arms .72 -37.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.86 -3.10%
ISE Sentiment 113.0 -8.87%
US Dollar 85.81 +.12%
CRB 297.11 +.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 59.54 +1.47%
Unleaded Gasoline 149.80 +2.84%
Natural Gas 6.02 +4.64%
Heating Oil 167.70 +1.40%
Gold 571.30 +.79%
Base Metals 230.66 +.66%
Copper 322.95 +.75%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.55% -1.32%

Leading Sectors
Restaurants +2.89%
Internet +2.46%
Biotech +2.40%

Lagging Sectors
Coal +.31%
Drugs +.19%
Papers +.14%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Prudential:
- Upgraded (PSUN) to Overweight.
- Downgraded (AEOS) to Underweight.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The DJIA posted another new all-time high today, led by growth stocks, as interest rates fell further on comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke.
- Conservative activist Paul Weyrich, president of the Free Congress Foundation, reversed his call for House Speaker Dennis Hastert to resign over the Mark Foley sex scandal after getting a personal call from him today. Weyrich said Hastert insisted that he didn’t receive clear warnings from other leaders or aides about Foley’s inappropriate e-mails.
- Starbucks(SBUX) said September same-store sales rose 6% on demand for pumpkin-spice lattes, and lunch and breakfast sandwiches. The shares surged 5% more in after-hours trading.
- Gold futures fell to the lowest since June on speculation a 16-month low in commodity prices will reduce the metal’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.

NY Times:
- Bono, the lead singer of the rock band U2, and Bobby Shriver have enlisted Gap(GPS), Armani Exchange, Motorola(MOT), Converse and American Express(AXP) to fight AIDS in Africa with a new line of products.

Crain’s NY Business:
- Office vacancies in Manhattan fell almost 30% in the third quarter and are at their lowest in five years.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Computer longs, Retail longs, Internet longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive today as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was very bullish. Over the past few years, P/E multiples on the major averages, and more specifically growth stocks, have contracted relentlessly. Growth stocks are the cheapest vs. value stocks in at least 30 years, according to several recent studies. In my opinion, the main reasons for this valuation contraction during a time of record corporate profits and a booming economy were lack of confidence in the future and inflation fears. This is why many of the record number of bears that inhabit the current negativity bubble spend so much time trying to undermine everything that is remotely positive for the country, economy or stock market and aim to keep investors scared out of their collective minds. Whatever happened to the bird flu? This is also why there is so much time spent in the bearish camp harping about inflation and trying to boost inflation expectations, which are a large component of inflation. Most stock market bears are commodity bulls for this very reason, in my opinion. As I have said before, P/E multiple expansion is a bear's worst nightmare. Confidence is returning to U.S. stocks, and inflation fears are plunging with the collapse in commodities and moderating global growth. I sense U.S. stock multiple expansion is finally beginning in earnest.

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