Thursday, October 05, 2006

Stocks Modestly Higher into Close on Short-Covering, Performance Anxiety and Less Pessimism

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Biotech longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Oil tanker rates have fallen 52% from November 2005 highs and 20% in the last six weeks on expectations of OPEC production cuts. Earlier this year, I speculated OPEC would be cutting production before year-end. However, I didn't anticipate the hording of oil in tankers, by certain countries, that occurred earlier in the year that temporarily boosted tanker rates. Significant tanker capacity is set to come online over the next few quarters at a time of declining demand. I suspect tanker rates have much further to go on the downside. I do not believe it is too late to short OMI Corp. (OMM). I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less pessimism and bargain-hunting.

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