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Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:56 PM
Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg: 
  • Eurogroup Fails to Agree to Next Greek Bailout Steps. Euro-area governments left tough decisions on the future of Greece’s bailout for next week, after talks failed to bridge differences over the aid program that the Greek government blames for economic hardship. With Greece’s current bailout expiring at the end of February, finance ministers met for six hours in Brussels without signing off on any conclusions on the way forward for the region’s most-indebted nation. That leaves open how Greece can avoid running out of cash and avert a possible exit from the 19-nation currency union.
  • Greek Economic Tragedy Sets Scene for Varoufakis on Debt. The root of Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’s desperation for debt relief will be laid bare in the coming days. The backdrop for the new government is an economy lumbered with near-record unemployment and a deflationary spiral after the country plunged into its worst slump since World War II. While data on Friday may confirm the economy grew in each quarter of 2014, it has a long way to go to regain output lost in six years of recession, with the current political crunch threatening to trip up the recovery.  
  • Greece, Europe Far from Agreement: UniCredit's Nielsen. (video)
  • Australian Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.4% in January. Australian unemployment climbed to a 12 1/2-year high, sending the currency lower and underscoring last week’s decision to cut interest rates to a fresh record low. The jobless rate rose to 6.4 percent from 6.1 percent, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. That was the worst since August 2002 and exceeded the median estimate of 6.2 percent from a survey of 27 economists. The number of people employed fell by 12,200, led by declines in eastern states.  
  • Asia Stocks Rise as Weak Yen Buoys Japan, Investors Watch Greece. Asian stocks rose as investors monitored negotiations in Europe on extending Greece’s bailout program and the yen held losses past 120 per dollar, sending Japan’s Topix index toward a seven-year high as it reopened after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 140.72 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its first advance in six days. Japan’s Topix index climbed 1.4 percent, heading for its highest close since Dec. 28, 2007.
  • U.S. Earnings Picture Is Just Not Good at All: Bianco. (video) Bianco Research President and Founder Jim Bianco discusses the U.S. economy, no debt deal for Greece and how it's impacting the markets with Bloomberg's Angie Lau on "First Up."
Wall Street Journal:
  • Debate Opens on New War Powers. Obama Asks Congress to Back Islamic State Fight. President Barack Obama asked Congress for new powers to wage military operations against the Islamic State militant group, kicking off a renewed national debate over the scope of wartime powers that should be afforded to the commander-in-chief. American warplanes have pounded Islamic State targets for six months, but Mr. Obama on Wednesday said the proposed resolution authorizing military force is important not only for...
  • Hedge Funds Focused on Currencies Get Big Payoff. January Was Big Winner for Firms, Especially Those Driven by Algorithms. Currency markets are finally giving hedge funds some bang for their buck. Thanks to a consistently soaring dollar—and plunging euro—investment funds focused on currencies had the best month in years in January. Data from Hedge Fund Research Inc., which compiles a broad measure of currency-fund performance, show the group had its best..
  • Beijing Directive Cuts Into Debt Issuance. Sales Are Derailed as Doubt Is Cast on Local-Government Backing for Bonds. In the eastern city of Changzhou, known for its dried radish pickles and a severe housing glut, a government financing vehicle was on track late last year to sell a $190 million bond. For years, such bonds have been typically backed by local governments, helping attract investors while helping fund much-needed infrastructure projects.
  • As Oil Price Drops, Texas Lenders Watch for Fallout. Small Banks Brace for Hit to Local Businesses of Any Cutback in Crude Production.
  • Countering Putin’s Grand Strategy. With Europe weak and distracted, only the U.S. can thwart the Kremlin’s growing ambitions. The heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine this week isn’t the only reason to be skeptical about the prospects for the peace summit that began Wednesday in Minsk, Belarus. Even if the meeting among Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande produces a cease-fire agreement that holds up—unlike the one signed last fall—the conflict’s underlying reality will remain unchanged: The Russian-backed separatist revolt
Fox News:
  • Secret Iranian unit fueling Mideast bloodshed with illicit arms shipments. (video) As conflicts and civil wars rage across the Middle East and North Africa, a shadowy covert cell operating under the Iranian government is fueling the bloodshed.
  • Congress gives final approval to Keystone XL pipeline bill, setting up veto showdown. (video) The House gave final congressional approval Wednesday to legislation to complete the Keystone XL oil pipeline -- setting up the first veto showdown between President Obama and the new, Republican-controlled Congress.
CNBC: 
  • Tesla(TSLA) earnings: Loss of 13 cents per share, vs. expected EPS of 31 cents. (video) Tesla reported fourth-quarter quarterly earnings and revenue that majorly missed analysts' expectations on Wednesday, but it struck an optimistic tone for the year ahead.
  • Cisco(CSCO) shares rise after EPS, revenue beat. (video) Cisco Systems on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that beat Wall Street expectations on strong demand for switching equipment and routers. 
Zero Hedge:
  • Greek Deal Rumor Falls Apart After Eurogroup Says "No Deal... No Way Forward", Greece "Questions Merit" Of Bailout Extension.
  • Goldman Warns "Don't Count On Rig Declines To Balance The Oil Market Just Yet".
  • Tesla's(TSLA) Quarter In Just Three Charts.
  • If Not Russia, Then China? Tsipras Invited To Visit Premier Li Keqiang In Beijing.
  • Stocks Finish Flat As Selling Scramble Becomes Buying Bonanza, Crude Slides. (graph)
  • Goldman: Markets Ignore Grexit Threat Due To ECB QE, But If There Is A Grexit Then All Bets Are Off. (graph)
  • The president of Brazil is already having the worst year ever.
  • Austria's 3rd Largest Bank Goes Full Bear Stearns: CEO Blames "Short Sellers" For Firm's Demise. (graph)
  • Fourth Turning: The Shadow Of Crisis Has Not Passed - Part 2.
Business Insider:
  • An Arab billionaire shares his explosive views on Obama, Israel, ISIS, and why the Arab Spring failed.
  • The Aussie dollar is getting smoked. (graph)
  • Here's what the $294 trillion market of global financial assets looks like.
Reuters: 
  • Shippers plan 4-day partial shutdown of U.S. West Coast ports. Shipping lines will partially shut down 29 U.S. West Coast ports for four of the next five days, the companies said on Wednesday, as they postponed the latest round of protracted labor talks with the dockworkers union amid mounting cargo backups at the harbors. The loading and unloading of cargo freighters will be suspended, as operations were last weekend, on Thursday and again on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, the companies' bargaining agent, the Pacific Maritime Association, said in a statement.
  • Applied Materials(AMAT) hurt by low demand for chipmaking machinery. Applied Materials Inc said new orders in its business that makes semiconductor equipment and made-to-order chips fell in the first quarter due to weak demand from foundry customers. The company, whose customers include Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd , also forecast current-quarter profit and sales below analysts' expectations. Applied Materials' shares fell 3 percent to $23.53 in extended trading.
  • Baidu(BIDU) revenue falls short of estimates as customers go mobile. Baidu Inc, owner of China's dominant search engine, reported a lower-than-expected 47.5 percent rise in quarterly revenue as more users switched from PCs to mobile devices, which have less space for more lucrative forms of advertising. Shares of the U.S.-listed company fell 7.8 percent to $198 in extended trading on Wednesday.
  • Whole Foods(WFM) sales accelerate, shares rise. Whole Foods Market Inc on Wednesday said same-store sales have accelerated, helped by stronger consumer confidence and shoppers' positive response to the upscale grocer's price cutting and its first national advertising campaign.
Telegraph:
  • Germany faces impossible choice as Greek austerity revolt spreads. EU elites who forced a currency experiment on countries not ready for it have only themselves to blame.
Economic Information Daily:
  • China's Machinery Industry Sales Growth May Slow. Revenue growth for China's machinery industry is expected to slow to 8% this year because of weak demand, citing Chen Bin, an official at the China Machinery Industry Federation.
Macau Business Daily:
  • Macau Official Sees Feb. Gaming Revenue Drop. Macau's gross gaming revenue this month will likely be lower than a year ago, citing Secretary for Economy and Finance Lionel Leong.
China Securities Journal:
  • China-Listed Banks 2014 Profit Growth May Slow. Profit growth at China-listed banks may have slowed to 8% last year on increased non-performing-loan exposure risk and higher-than-expected loan provisions, citing brokerages. Growth of both NPL amounts and ratios will not improve in the short term, report cites unidentified researchers.
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 110.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 69.50 +.25 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (AAP)/1.47
  • (AB)/.51
  • (APA)/.77
  • (AAWW)/1.43
  • (AVP)/.25
  • (BWA)/.75
  • (BG)/2.52
  • (CAB)/1.35
  • (CS)/.45
  • (DBD)/.53
  • (K)/.93
  • (AIG)/1.04
  • (CBS)/.76
  • (TRLA)/.01
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance for January are estimated to fall -.4% versus a -.9% decline in December. 
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos for January are estimated to fall -.5% versus a -1.0% decline in December.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for January are estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.3% decline in December.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 287K versus 278K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated at 2400K versus 2400K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for December are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in November.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The BoE Inflation report, $16B 30Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for February, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (IT) investor day and the (MLM) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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