Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:  
  • Greece Pressure Mounts as ECB Shows Caution on Bank Funds. Pressure mounted on Greece as U.S. and European officials called on the government to reach a deal with its creditors and the European Central Bank granted the nation’s cash-strapped banks only a small increase in emergency funds. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s administration will submit a request to the euro area for a six-month loan extension on Thursday, a day later than originally planned, according to a government official. ECB policy makers on Wednesday set Emergency Liquidity Assistance for Greek banks at 68.3 billion euros ($77.9 billion), up from 65 billion euros, a euro-area central-bank official said. Both officials asked not to be identified because the matters are private.   
  • Russian Quest for More Meat Goes Awry as Sanctions Bite. Ukraine’s conflict over the past year has undermined Russia’s quest to wean itself from foreign meat. The annexation of Crimea and Russia’s support of rebels in eastern Ukraine led to economic sanctions, trade bans and a weaker ruble. In a country that became the world’s fifth-largest food importer as rising incomes boosted demand for chicken and pork, domestic producers now find it is too expensive to import new equipment and borrowing costs have doubled. “All costs need to be recalculated,” Alexey Zhdanov, deputy chief executive officer of Russian Agricultural Bank, said at a conference from Moscow on Feb. 6. “Demand for new investment loans is zero.”
  • Japan Stocks Rise Toward 15-Year High While Crude Slumps. Japanese stocks climbed, pushing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average toward its highest close since 2000, while oil retreated before U.S. stockpiles data. Australian bonds rose on speculation the Federal Reserve will delay raising interest rates. The Nikkei 225 rose 0.5 percent by 10:56 a.m. in Tokyo, while the broader Topix index is at a seven-year high. Australian energy shares declined as U.S. oil slid 3 percent.
  • Traders Who Say Yields Are Too Low Should Check Surprise Index. Investors who say Treasury yields are too low given what’s happening in the U.S. economy should look at the Citi Economic Surprise Index. It shows U.S. economic data are failing to meet expectations by the most in more than two years. The figure jibes with a Federal Reserve statement Wednesday signaling policy makers’ willingness to keep interest rates low for longer, given risks to the economy ranging from a stronger dollar to wages and housing.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Clinton Foundation Defends Acceptance of Foreign Donations. Charity has received funds from governments of U.A.E., Saudi Arabia, Oman and Canada, among others. The Clinton Foundation on Wednesday defended its practice of accepting donations from overseas governments, amid concerns from some ethics experts that such contributions are inappropriate at a time when Hillary Clinton is preparing to run for president.
  • Lenders Step Up Financing to Subprime Borrowers. Loans to those with low credit scores driven by boom in car lending, new crop of financial firms. Loans to consumers with low credit scores have reached the highest level since the start of the financial crisis, driven by a boom in car lending and a new crop of companies extending credit.
  • The Ideological Islamist Threat. The radicals are waging a war of ideas the West refuses to fight. President Obama opened this week’s White House Conference on Violent Extremism with a speech about community-based counter-radicalization efforts, and his Administration is being roundly mocked for its refusal to use terms like “Muslim terrorism” or “Islamism.” The mockery is deserved. Foreign policy is not a Harry Potter tale of good versus He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named. And war cannot be won against an enemy we refuse to describe except in meaningless generalities.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Telegraph: 
Evening Recommendations 
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.25 -1.75 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 65.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • S&P 500 futures -.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (BCC)/.53
  • (DNR)/.23
  • (DTV)/1.40
  • (DISCA)/.42
  • (NBL)/.35
  • (PCLN)/10.10
  • (PWR)/.46
  • (RS)/1.06
  • (TK)/.28
  • (TTC)/.49
  • (WMT)/1.54
  • (ED)/.55
  • (INTU)/-.13
  • (MHK)/2.21
  • (NEM)/.11
  • (JWN)/1.35
  • (SWY)/.60
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 290K versus 304K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2360K versus 2354K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook Index for February is estimated to rise to 9.0 versus 6.3 in January. 
  • The Leading Index for January is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in December.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,000,000 barrels versus a +4,868,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -188,890 barrels versus a +1,977,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,044,440 barrels versus a -3,252,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.73% versus a +.1% gain the prior week.
Upcoming Splits
  • (CNC) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurzone Current Account data, Bloomberg Economic Expectations Index for February, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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