Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:

• Sanctions Will Not Deter Putin: Rumer. (video) Eugene Rumer, senior associate and the director of Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program, discusses the Ukraine crisis with Bloomberg's Trish Regan on "Street Smart."  

• Greek Plan to Tackle Economy Goes Before Finance Chiefs. Greece’s month-old government is about to find out whether a package of new economic measures sketched in recent days is enough to win more funding from the rest of the euro region to keep the country solvent. A draft list was sent to creditor institutions on Monday, based on a provisional agreement on Feb. 20. A Greek government official said the policies will be provided to the euro-area group of finance ministers on Tuesday before they discuss on a conference call whether the commitments go far enough.

• Asian Stocks Retreat as Investors Await Greece Policies, Yellen. Asian stocks dropped as investors awaited details on Greece’s package of economic measures and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to lawmakers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1 percent to 144.79 as of 9.01 a.m. in Tokyo, with seven of its 10 industry groups retreating.

Wall Street Journal: 

• Ukraine’s Hryvnia Hits New Low; New Problems for Cease-Fire. Ukrainian military delays artillery withdrawal; central bank acts on currency. Ukraine’s central bank moved to calm panicky currency markets on Monday after the hryvnia plummeted to a new low against the dollar, while the cease-fire in the country’s east showed more signs of unraveling.

• Jury Finds Palestinian Authority, PLO Liable for Terrorist Attacks in Israel a Decade Ago. Federal jury orders groups to pay $218.5 million to victims’ families. A federal jury in New York on Monday found the Palestinian Authority and the Palestine Liberation Organization liable for supporting six terrorist attacks in Israel more than a decade ago and ordered the groups to pay $218.5 million to the American victims’ families. Monday’s verdict in Manhattan federal court follows a lengthy legal battle stemming 

• Big Banks Face Scrutiny Over Pricing of Metals. U.S. Justice Department investigates price-setting process for gold, silver, platinum and palladium. U.S. officials are investigating at least 10 major banks for possible rigging of precious-metals markets, even though European regulators dropped a similar probe after finding no evidence of wrongdoing, according to people close to the inquiries.

• U.S., Iran Explore Option of 10-Year Nuclear Freeze. Compromise could see 12-month ‘breakout’ period for a decade, then allow Iran to build capacity. The U.S. and Iran are exploring a nuclear deal that would keep Tehran from amassing enough material to make a bomb for at least a decade, but could then allow it to gradually build up its capabilities again.

• Brazil Experts Fear a Two-Year Downturn. Economists say nation is likely to suffer first back-to-back decline in GDP since 1930s. For all the debt crises, hyperinflation and boom-and-bust cycles Brazil’s economy has suffered in recent decades, the country hasn’t posted two consecutive years of contraction since the Great Depression. 

• A Simple Cure for ObamaCare: Freedom. The GOP needs a politically defensible alternative if the Supreme Court overturns federal-exchange subsidies.

Zero Hedge:

• Ex-Plunge Protection Team Whistleblower: "Governments Control Markets; There Is No Price Discovery Anymore". (video)

• To Obama, From Russia With Love... And 20 Megatons. (pic)

• Why The Last Thing US Equity Markets Want Is Good Data. (graph)

• Nasdaq Closes Green For Two Weeks In A Row: AAPL Grows By $100 Billion In February. (graph)

• The Chart That The Eurogroup Is Really Worried About. (graph)

• Yellen's "Humphrey-Hawkins" Testimony Preview: "Don't Rock The Boat".

• Recovery? Central Banks Are Easing Policy For 50% Of The World's Population. (graph)

• Big Barbie Is Watching You: Meet The WiFi-Connected Doll that Talks to Your Kids & Records Them.

• What Is China Building In The South China Sea?

• Despite US/Israel Demands, 'Isolated' Russia Offers Iran Advanced Anti-Aircraft Missiles.

• This Is The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today: 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300%. (table)

Business Insider:

• The 'Red King of Gambling' owes $160 million, and that says everything about China's problems.

• Australian mining giant BHP(BHP) just told the market exactly why oil prices are going lower.

• The eastern Ukraine ceasefire is crumbling.

Reuters:

• Stifel to buy Sterne Agee for $150 mln. Investment bank Stifel Financial Corp said it will buy privately held Sterne Agee Group Inc for $150 million to expand its wealth management and fixed-income business. The acquisition will add 730 financial advisers, boosting Stifel's headcount of wealth management professionals by 35 percent to more than 2,800.

• Fed's Williams says wouldn't rule out June rate hike -- Nikkei. "I wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility of a rate hike in June," Williams was quoted as saying. Williams is among the voting members this year on the Fed's policy-setting committee and his thinking on monetary policy is considered in the mainstream at the central bank.

Evening Recommendations 

• None of note

Night Trading

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.25 +1.75 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.75 -.25 basis point.

• S&P 500 futures -.01%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (EXPD)/.49

• (CMCSA)/.78

• (TREX)/.14

• (ODP)/.04

• (HD)/.89

• (DCI)/.37

• (CBRL)/1.62

• (TOL)/.30

• (SAFM)/2.99

• (AMT)/1.10

• (DPZ)/.93

• (M)/2.40

• (SPWR)/.24

• (WBMD)/.31

• (PZZA)/.50

• (DWA)/-.72

• (DYN)/.47

• (FSLR)/.77

• (CPRT)/.40

• (HPQ)/.91

Economic Releases
9:00 am EST

• The S&P/CS 20 City MoM SA for December is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.74% gain in November.

9:45 am EST

• Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for February is estimated to rise to 54.5 versus 54.2 in January.
  

10:00 am EST 

• Consumer Confidence for February is estimated to fall to 99.5 versus 102.9 in January.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for February is estimated at 6.0 versus 6.0 in January.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Yellen's testimony to Senate, Eurozone CPI/GDP reports, HSBC China Manufacturing PMI, $26B 2Y T-Note auction,  weekly US retail sales reports, (JPM) investor day, Wells Fargo Real Estate Conference, (AKAM) investor summit and the RBC Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.