Monday, June 13, 2016

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Escalating Brexit Concerns, Terrorism Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Transport/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.83 +16.44%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.29 -.34%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.95 +3.69%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 60.02 +5.28%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +15.85%
  • Total Put/Call 1.08 +13.68%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 -27.12
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.07 +4.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 752.0 +2.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 108.07 +6.8%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.5 +4.3%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 54.15 +2.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 296.84 +2.73%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 129.49 +.09%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 39.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -32.25 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.61 -.39%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% unch.
  • Yield Curve 90.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $52.91/Metric Tonne +.67%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.90 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.70 -2.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.1 -6.7 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.51% -5.0 basis points
  • 13.7% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 27.2% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -343 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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