Thursday, June 23, 2016

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Brexit Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.63 -12.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.47 +1.75%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.27 -3.84%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.52 -6.02%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +36.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.30 +27.5%
  • NYSE Arms .72 -43.32
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 76.68 -2.3%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 746.0 -4.36%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.67 -3.71%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 27.87 -2.65%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 50.75 -2.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 277.50 -1.69%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 129.99 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -36.50 +2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.92 +.56%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .28% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 95.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.89/Metric Tonne -.76%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.0 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -.3 +1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.8 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% +6.0 basis points
  • 33.4% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 34.8% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +272 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/tech/retail sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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