Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Retail/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.44 -5.17%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.169 +.37%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.97 -1.53%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.62 -3.18%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 unch,
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 +13.59%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -49.8
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.39 +.26%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 774.0 +1.20%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.25 +.55%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.95 -3.39%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 54.19 -2.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 300.26 -2.08%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 129.33 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.5 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 37.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.50 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.57 +.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 91.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $50.65/Metric Tonne +.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.90 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.60 -.4 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% +2.0 basis points
  • 7.7% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 23.6% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -333 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -1 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Lower: On losses in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

No comments: