Monday, June 13, 2016

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

  • Four Polls Put U.K. on Course to Leave EU as ‘Sun’ Backs Brexit. Britain appeared to be on course to leave the European Union, with four polls from three companies putting the “Leave” campaign ahead of “Remain.” Monday saw a day of intense volatility on the currency markets, as the pound swung between losses of 1 percent and gains of 0.5 percent. Then in the evening came a series of polls putting “Leave” ahead. In the day’s final blow to “Remain,” the Sun, Britain’s biggest-selling newspaper, backed a so-called Brexit on its front page. “Outside the EU we can become richer, safer and free at long last to forge our own destiny -- as America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and many other great democracies already do,” the newspaper said. “If we stay, Britain will be engulfed in a few short years by this relentlessly expanding ­German dominated federal state.
  • Brexit Anxiety Goes Epidemic in Europe as Stock Swings Turn Wild. Concern Britain will leave the European Union has wrought havoc in markets from Tokyo to Frankfurt and London. For Europe, the stress has reached levels not seen in almost a year. As the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell to its lowest level since February, a measure tracking the cost of hedging via options jumped to the highest since last July relative to a similar gauge for the U.S. European equity markets, previously calm in comparison to surges in pound volatility, are joining in after recent polls showed a lead for the “Leave” campaign.
  • Kyle Bass Predicts China Bank Woes. (video)
  • Baidu(BIDU) Reduces Revenue Forecast on Advertising Restrictions. Baidu Inc., China’s biggest internet search engine, cut its revenue forecast for the second quarter, saying regulatory restrictions cut advertising from drug companies and other health-care groups. Shares declined as much as 8.9 percent in extended trading after the announcement. The company said it projects sales of 18.1 billion yuan ($2.81 billion) to 18.2 billion yuan compared with its previous forecast of 20.1 billion to 20.6 billion yuan. The new regulations on online marketing by health-care companies have caused a reduction or delay in advertising “from a significant portion” of medical customers, Baidu said in a statement Monday. The company said the lower revenue also is a result of the cut in the number of sponsored links, which Baidu announced last month. While these actions will have a negative impact in the short term, Baidu said it expects users to become accustomed to the changes and health-care advertising will eventually recover.
  • Asian Stocks Retreat for Fourth Day as Brexit Concerns Intensify. Asian stocks slipped, after the biggest three-day drop since February, amid investor anxiety before central bank meetings and Britain’s vote on European Union membership. Australian shares led declines as trading resumed after a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent to 127.17 as of 9:13 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge tumbled 3.7 percent in the past three days amid mounting anxiety the U.K. will vote to leave the EU on June 23, with a survey by the Independent newspaper showing 55 percent of voters favoring a so-called Brexit. Investors are also cautious ahead of this week’s policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
  • Oil Extends Decline From One-Week Low Before U.S. Stockpile Data. Oil extended declines from the lowest close in more than a week before U.S. crude stockpile and production data. Futures lost as much as 1.2 percent in New York after falling 4.6 percent the previous three sessions. Inventories probably dropped by 2.45 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. Nigeria is in talks with militants to end attacks on oil installations that have cut output, Emmanuel Kachikwu, minister of state for petroleum resources, said in a television broadcast.
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge: 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 147.25 +3.25 basis points. 
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 54.50 +1.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.59 -.03%
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

  • (ISLE)/.59
  • (JW/A)/.67
  • (BOBE)/.43
  • (ITRI)/.34
Economic Releases
6:00 am EST
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated at 93.6 versus 93.6 in April
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.3% gain in April. 
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for May are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.3% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for May are estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for May are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in April. 
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for April are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in March.
Upcoming Splits 
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The UK CPI report, US weekly retail sales reports, Deutsche Bank Consumer Conference, RBC Mining/Materials Conference,  William Blair Growth Stock Conference, Citi Industrials Conference, Piper Consumer Conference, Morgan Stanley Financials Conference, (MET) annual meeting, (TM) annual meeting and the (BABA) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

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