Monday, June 27, 2016

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on EU Disintegration Fears, Rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Global Growth Worries, Financial/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.82 -7.53%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 117.48 -.95%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.46 +2.32%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 63.27 -4.83%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 50.0 -7.41%
  • Total Put/Call 1.30 +4.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.82 -20.31
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.09 +4.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 817.0 +11.10%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 136.66 +8.72%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 36.60 -.25%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 56.25 +2.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 307.27 +1.59%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 129.95 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.5 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -39.0 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 71.50 -.63%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .24% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 86.0 -7.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.86/Metric Tonne +6.42%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.3 +.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.37% -8.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 0.0% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -124 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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