Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Oil Bounce, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.64 -11.25%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 118.99 +.20%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.37 -3.45%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.75 -3.59%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 62.0 -8.82%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +6.19%
  • NYSE Arms .66 +17.6
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.11 -4.20%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 806.0 -4.69%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 116.50 -9.97%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.13 -10.57%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 50.876 -4.85%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 272.16 -7.13%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.02 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.75 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 36.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.25 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.36 +.84%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .25% unch.
  • Yield Curve 85.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $53.89/Metric Tonne +.45%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.1 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .5 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.42% +2.0 basis points
  • 1.9% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 3.9% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +219 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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