Thursday, June 30, 2016

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Central Bank Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Yen Weakness, Food/Metal & Mining Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Slightly Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.12 -3.13%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 119.04 +.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.40 +1.07%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 56.79 +2.52%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 62.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call 1.21 +5.14%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 +87.82
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.66 -2.99%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 797.0 -1.25%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 112.65 -3.31%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.10 -.11%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 53.34 +4.94%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 268.26 -1.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 130.18 +.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 15.0 -2.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 37.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.75 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.38 -.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .26% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 90.0 +5.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $55.66/Metric Tonne +3.28%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.8 +.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 5.0 +4.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -7.20 +2.8 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.44% +2.0 basis points
  • 0.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Sept. 21 meeting, 2.0% chance at Nov. 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +235 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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