Friday, October 12, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Emerging Market/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly HIgher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.4 +1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.63 -.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.49 -2.15%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.07 +9.17%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 84.0 +35.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.16 -4.1%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -29.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.64 -2.24%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 402.0 -.57%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 92.87 +.01%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 308.0 +3.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.80 -3.11%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.54 -.44%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.32 -.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.0 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.25 -4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.56 +.12%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.26% unch.
  • Yield Curve 30.0 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 69.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.14%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -1.9 -1.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.8 +3.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.0 +6.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 unch.
  • 76.2% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 19th meeting, 77.1% chance at Jan. 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -314 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -62 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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